Closing spread
GB -3.5
Total
41
Model margin
-2.9est.
CAR perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Panthers
- Packers
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.054EPA / play-0.195
- 42.5%Success rate35.9%
- +0.197EPA / dropback-0.169
- -0.149EPA / rush-0.247
- 9.5%Explosive rate7.0%
- 35.7%Third-down rate30.3%
- 63.7%Red-zone TD rate45.8%
- 1.76Points / drive0.78
- 2.6%Turnover rate3.1%
- -0.110EPA / play allowed+0.016
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
GB lead 9–7 since 1999
Meetings average 49.3 points. CAR are 10-5-1 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Packers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brett Favre | 25/39 | 308 | 3 | 2 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ahman Green | 19 | 53 | 2.8 | 0 |
| Rondell Mealey | 7 | 18 | 2.6 | 0 |
| Brett Favre | 2 | -1 | -0.5 | 0 |
| Herbert Goodman | 1 | -1 | -1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ahman Green | 6 | 8 | 75 | 0 |
| Bill Schroeder | 5 | 9 | 67 | 1 |
| Corey Bradford | 4 | 5 | 49 | 1 |
| Bubba Franks | 3 | 3 | 34 | 1 |
| Rondell Mealey | 2 | 2 | 31 | 0 |
| Antonio Freeman | 2 | 8 | 25 | 0 |
| Bobby Collins | 1 | 1 | 3 | 0 |
Panthers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chris Weinke | 18/30 | 160 | 1 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Richard Huntley | 5 | 19 | 3.8 | 0 |
| Nick Goings | 8 | 12 | 1.5 | 0 |
| Chris Weinke | 3 | 5 | 1.7 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Donald Hayes | 4 | 7 | 52 | 0 |
| Muhsin Muhammad | 3 | 7 | 39 | 0 |
| Wesley Walls | 4 | 5 | 33 | 1 |
| Nick Goings | 1 | 1 | 4 | 0 |
| Steve Smith | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Isaac Byrd | 1 | 2 | -1 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Panthers; negative favour Packers.
Half-point at risk
7.52%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
41.4%
Expected total
44.1est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-5.53
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential+0.08
- Expected margin-2.88