2001 · Week 3

Final

Packers

Green Bay

QB Brett Favre

28·7

Panthers

Carolina

QB Chris Weinke

Ericsson Stadium · outdoors · grass · 64°F · wind 14mph

Closing spread

GB -3.5

Total

41

Model margin

-2.9est.

CAR perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Win probability

  • Panthers
  • Packers

How each play moved the game.

Panthers winsPackers wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Packersedge mapPanthers
  • +0.054EPA / play-0.195
  • 42.5%Success rate35.9%
  • +0.197EPA / dropback-0.169
  • -0.149EPA / rush-0.247
  • 9.5%Explosive rate7.0%
  • 35.7%Third-down rate30.3%
  • 63.7%Red-zone TD rate45.8%
  • 1.76Points / drive0.78
  • 2.6%Turnover rate3.1%
  • -0.110EPA / play allowed+0.016

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

GB lead 10–7 since 1999

Meetings average 49.1 points. CAR are 10-6-1 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2026 · W8CAR @ GB19–27GB
2025 · W9CAR @ GB16–13CAR
2023 · W16GB @ CAR33–30GB
2020 · W15CAR @ GB16–24GB
2019 · W10CAR @ GB16–24GB
2017 · W15GB @ CAR24–31CAR
2015 · W9GB @ CAR29–37CAR
2014 · W7CAR @ GB17–38GB

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultGB–CAR
GBQ1 15:00730Turnover0–0
CARQ1 11:0036Punt0–0
GBQ1 9:47313Punt0–0
CARQ1 8:02628Punt0–0
GBQ1 4:48516Punt0–0
CARQ1 2:351156Touchdown0–7
GBQ2 13:4410Turnover0–7
CARQ2 13:2656Turnover on downs0–7
GBQ2 12:21845Field goal3–7
CARQ2 8:2639Punt3–7
GBQ2 6:091168Field goal6–7
CARQ2 0:5834Punt6–7
GBQ2 0:0200End of half6–7
CARQ3 15:0000Touchdown6–7
GBQ3 14:49538Touchdown14–7
CARQ3 12:2000Touchdown14–7
GBQ3 12:10852Touchdown21–7
CARQ3 8:3039Punt21–7
GBQ3 6:39741Punt21–7
CARQ3 3:0834Punt21–7
GBQ3 1:09853Touchdown28–7
CARQ4 12:23948Turnover28–7
GBQ4 7:46419Missed field goal28–7
CARQ4 4:54514Punt28–7
GBQ4 2:5439Punt28–7
CARQ4 1:032-15End of half28–7

Box score

Individual performances

Packers

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Brett Favre25/3930832

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Ahman Green19532.80
Rondell Mealey7182.60
Brett Favre2-1-0.50
Herbert Goodman1-1-1.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Ahman Green68750
Bill Schroeder59671
Corey Bradford45491
Bubba Franks33341
Rondell Mealey22310
Antonio Freeman28250
Bobby Collins1130

Panthers

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Chris Weinke18/3016011

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Richard Huntley5193.80
Nick Goings8121.50
Chris Weinke351.70

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Donald Hayes47520
Muhsin Muhammad37390
Wesley Walls45331
Nick Goings1140
Steve Smith0100
Isaac Byrd12-10

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line -3.52.7%3.1%4.8%3.1%7.5%6.9%3.9%

Positive margins favour Panthers; negative favour Packers.

Half-point at risk

7.52%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

41.4%

Expected total

44.1est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-5.53
  • Home-field advantage+2.56
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential+0.08
  • Expected margin-2.88