2001 · Week 3 · Division
Final
Hubert H. Humphrey Metrodome · dome · astroturf
Closing spread
TB -2.5
Total
39
Model margin
-0.8est.
MIN perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Vikings
- Buccaneers
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.025EPA / play-0.050
- 39.6%Success rate42.2%
- +0.010EPA / dropback-0.012
- -0.085EPA / rush-0.133
- 6.6%Explosive rate7.6%
- 35.3%Third-down rate42.5%
- 42.8%Red-zone TD rate49.2%
- 1.43Points / drive1.40
- 1.8%Turnover rate3.7%
- -0.085EPA / play allowed+0.044
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
TB lead 10–5 since 1999
TB have won 2 straight. Meetings average 44.1 points. MIN are 4-10-1 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Buccaneers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brad Johnson | 20/34 | 224 | 0 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Warrick Dunn | 11 | 65 | 5.9 | 1 |
| Brad Johnson | 2 | 19 | 9.5 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Keyshawn Johnson | 7 | 13 | 96 | 0 |
| Jacquez Green | 3 | 5 | 54 | 0 |
| Warrick Dunn | 5 | 6 | 34 | 0 |
| Aaron Stecker | 3 | 3 | 33 | 0 |
| Dave Moore | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Karl Williams | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Vikings
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Daunte Culpepper | 30/44 | 322 | 1 | 2 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Michael Bennett | 13 | 51 | 3.9 | 0 |
| Daunte Culpepper | 5 | 20 | 4.0 | 1 |
| Randy Moss | 1 | 9 | 9.0 | 0 |
| Doug Chapman | 3 | 6 | 2.0 | 0 |
| Jimmy Kleinsasser | 1 | 1 | 1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Byron Chamberlain | 4 | 5 | 88 | 0 |
| Randy Moss | 5 | 8 | 86 | 0 |
| Cris Carter | 5 | 11 | 62 | 1 |
| Jimmy Kleinsasser | 8 | 10 | 51 | 0 |
| Michael Bennett | 6 | 6 | 26 | 0 |
| Doug Chapman | 1 | 1 | 7 | 0 |
| Jake Reed | 1 | 2 | 2 | 0 |
| Andrew Jordan | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Vikings; negative favour Buccaneers.
Half-point at risk
2.13%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
47.0%
Expected total
43.5est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-2.23
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential-1.12
- Expected margin-0.78