Closing spread
PHI -14.5
Total
41
Model margin
+3.2est.
PHI perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Eagles
- Cardinals
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.028EPA / play-0.036
- 39.3%Success rate39.2%
- +0.073EPA / dropback+0.031
- -0.182EPA / rush-0.151
- 8.5%Explosive rate8.6%
- 28.9%Third-down rate31.5%
- 48.3%Red-zone TD rate56.0%
- 1.12Points / drive1.34
- 2.4%Turnover rate2.2%
- +0.014EPA / play allowed-0.115
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
ARI lead 11–8 since 1999
Meetings average 46.9 points. PHI are 8-11 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Cardinals
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jake Plummer | 18/32 | 238 | 2 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Michael Pittman | 22 | 83 | 3.8 | 0 |
| Thomas Jones | 5 | 13 | 2.6 | 0 |
| Jake Plummer | 1 | 1 | 1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| MarTay Jenkins | 6 | 6 | 119 | 1 |
| David Boston | 4 | 9 | 71 | 0 |
| Terry Hardy | 3 | 5 | 22 | 0 |
| Michael Pittman | 2 | 4 | 16 | 0 |
| Frank Sanders | 1 | 2 | 3 | 0 |
| Arnold Jackson | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Eagles
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Donovan McNabb | 19/29 | 280 | 2 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Correll Buckhalter | 21 | 134 | 6.4 | 0 |
| Donovan McNabb | 3 | 24 | 8.0 | 0 |
| Brian Mitchell | 3 | 14 | 4.7 | 0 |
| Todd Pinkston | 1 | 5 | 5.0 | 0 |
| Cecil Martin | 2 | 2 | 1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Todd Pinkston | 4 | 6 | 90 | 2 |
| Brian Mitchell | 3 | 3 | 82 | 0 |
| James Thrash | 3 | 4 | 42 | 0 |
| Chad Lewis | 4 | 5 | 38 | 0 |
| Na Brown | 2 | 4 | 18 | 0 |
| Jeff Thomason | 2 | 2 | 8 | 0 |
| Cecil Martin | 1 | 2 | 2 | 0 |
| Correll Buckhalter | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Freddie Mitchell | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Eagles; negative favour Cardinals.
Half-point at risk
1.12%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
57.5%
Expected total
43.6est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.60
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+3.16