2001 · Week 4 · Division

Final

Cardinals

Arizona

QB Jake Plummer

21·20

Eagles

Philadelphia

QB Donovan McNabb

Veterans Stadium · outdoors · fieldturf · 53°F · wind 17mph

Closing spread

PHI -14.5

Total

41

Model margin

+3.2est.

PHI perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Win probability

  • Eagles
  • Cardinals

How each play moved the game.

Eagles winsCardinals wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Cardinalsedge mapEagles
  • -0.028EPA / play-0.036
  • 39.3%Success rate39.2%
  • +0.073EPA / dropback+0.031
  • -0.182EPA / rush-0.151
  • 8.5%Explosive rate8.6%
  • 28.9%Third-down rate31.5%
  • 48.3%Red-zone TD rate56.0%
  • 1.12Points / drive1.34
  • 2.4%Turnover rate2.2%
  • +0.014EPA / play allowed-0.115

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

ARI lead 11–8 since 1999

Meetings average 46.9 points. PHI are 8-11 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2023 · W17ARI @ PHI35–31ARI
2022 · W5PHI @ ARI20–17PHI
2020 · W15PHI @ ARI26–33ARI
2017 · W5ARI @ PHI7–34PHI
2015 · W15ARI @ PHI40–17ARI
2014 · W8PHI @ ARI20–24ARI
2013 · W13ARI @ PHI21–24PHI
2012 · W3PHI @ ARI6–27ARI

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultARI–PHI
PHIQ1 15:002-6Opp touchdown7–0
ARIQ1 14:0600Opp touchdown7–0
PHIQ1 14:06662Turnover7–0
ARIQ1 11:171463Touchdown14–0
PHIQ1 3:42683Touchdown14–7
ARIQ1 0:0739Punt14–7
PHIQ2 13:21956Field goal14–10
ARIQ2 8:3938Punt14–10
PHIQ2 6:5539Punt14–10
ARIQ2 5:17630Punt14–10
PHIQ2 1:51769Touchdown14–17
ARIQ2 0:0500End of half14–17
ARIQ3 15:00864Missed field goal14–17
PHIQ3 10:19415Punt14–17
ARIQ3 8:26410Punt14–17
PHIQ3 6:01637Punt14–17
ARIQ3 3:306-6Punt14–17
PHIQ3 1:0835Punt14–17
ARIQ4 14:08866Turnover14–17
PHIQ4 9:541026Punt14–17
ARIQ4 5:2336Punt14–17
PHIQ4 3:50784Field goal14–20
ARIQ4 1:13879Touchdown21–20
PHIQ4 0:0900End of half21–20

Box score

Individual performances

Cardinals

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Jake Plummer18/3223821

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Michael Pittman22833.80
Thomas Jones5132.60
Jake Plummer111.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
MarTay Jenkins661191
David Boston49710
Terry Hardy35220
Michael Pittman24160
Frank Sanders1230
Arnold Jackson0100

Eagles

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Donovan McNabb19/2928021

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Correll Buckhalter211346.40
Donovan McNabb3248.00
Brian Mitchell3144.70
Todd Pinkston155.00
Cecil Martin221.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Todd Pinkston46902
Brian Mitchell33820
James Thrash34420
Chad Lewis45380
Na Brown24180
Jeff Thomason2280
Cecil Martin1220
Correll Buckhalter0100
Freddie Mitchell0100

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +14.57.5%3.1%4.8%3.1%2.7%

Positive margins favour Eagles; negative favour Cardinals.

Half-point at risk

1.12%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

57.5%

Expected total

43.6est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.60
  • Home-field advantage+2.56
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+3.16