2001 · Week 4

Final

Bears

Chicago

QB Jim Miller

31·3

Falcons

Atlanta

QB Chris Chandler

Georgia Dome · dome · astroturf

Closing spread

ATL -3.5

Total

39.5

Model margin

-1.3est.

ATL perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Win probability

  • Falcons
  • Bears

How each play moved the game.

Falcons winsBears wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Bearsedge mapFalcons
  • -0.063EPA / play-0.062
  • 39.4%Success rate39.3%
  • -0.033EPA / dropback+0.029
  • -0.099EPA / rush-0.193
  • 7.6%Explosive rate8.5%
  • 33.3%Third-down rate40.9%
  • 52.2%Red-zone TD rate42.1%
  • 1.28Points / drive1.45
  • 2.1%Turnover rate2.6%
  • -0.146EPA / play allowed+0.060

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

CHI lead 8–4 since 1999

CHI have won 2 straight. Meetings average 41.2 points. ATL are 2-9-1 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2026 · W6CHI @ ATL31–23CHI
2023 · W17ATL @ CHI17–37CHI
2022 · W11CHI @ ATL24–27ATL
2020 · W3CHI @ ATL30–26CHI
2017 · W1ATL @ CHI23–17ATL
2014 · W6CHI @ ATL27–13CHI
2011 · W1ATL @ CHI12–30CHI
2009 · W6CHI @ ATL14–21ATL

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultCHI–ATL
CHIQ1 15:00611Punt0–0
ATLQ1 12:28834Turnover0–0
CHIQ1 7:193-4Missed field goal0–0
ATLQ1 5:53520Punt0–0
CHIQ1 2:461140Punt0–0
ATLQ2 11:203-3Punt0–0
CHIQ2 9:5335Punt0–0
ATLQ2 8:17632Punt0–0
CHIQ2 5:14785Touchdown7–0
ATLQ2 1:54210Turnover7–0
CHIQ2 1:1510Turnover7–0
ATLQ2 1:0810Turnover7–0
CHIQ2 0:5757Field goal10–0
ATLQ3 15:00955Missed field goal10–0
CHIQ3 9:091359Turnover10–0
ATLQ3 1:38238Turnover10–0
CHIQ3 0:42265Touchdown17–0
ATLQ4 14:511148Opp touchdown24–0
CHIQ4 8:5600Opp touchdown24–0
ATLQ4 8:561149Field goal24–3
CHIQ4 4:10132Touchdown31–3
ATLQ4 3:58644Turnover on downs31–3
CHIQ4 2:0330Punt31–3
ATLQ4 0:1318End of half31–3

Box score

Individual performances

Bears

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Jim Miller17/2619612
Marty Booker1/13410

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Anthony Thomas11575.21
James Allen12272.30
Marty Booker1-5-5.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Marcus Robinson9101141
Marty Booker14631
David Terrell11190
James Allen2390
John Davis2290
Glyn Milburn1150
Dez White1420
Anthony Thomas0100

Falcons

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Mike Vick12/1818600
Chris Chandler7/127503

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Maurice Smith17714.20
Mike Vick5183.60
Rodney Thomas188.00
Chris Chandler122.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Shawn Jefferson56620
Quentin McCord33530
Terance Mathis49510
Alge Crumpler23460
Brian Finneran11120
Maurice Smith1280
Reggie Kelly1350

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +3.52.9%4.6%3.0%7.5%7.2%2.8%4.2%

Positive margins favour Falcons; negative favour Bears.

Half-point at risk

2.38%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

45.5%

Expected total

43.9est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-3.34
  • Home-field advantage+2.56
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential-0.56
  • Expected margin-1.34