Closing spread
ATL -3.5
Total
39.5
Model margin
-1.3est.
ATL perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Falcons
- Bears
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.063EPA / play-0.062
- 39.4%Success rate39.3%
- -0.033EPA / dropback+0.029
- -0.099EPA / rush-0.193
- 7.6%Explosive rate8.5%
- 33.3%Third-down rate40.9%
- 52.2%Red-zone TD rate42.1%
- 1.28Points / drive1.45
- 2.1%Turnover rate2.6%
- -0.146EPA / play allowed+0.060
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
CHI lead 7–4 since 1999
Meetings average 40 points. ATL are 2-8-1 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Bears
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jim Miller | 17/26 | 196 | 1 | 2 |
| Marty Booker | 1/1 | 34 | 1 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Anthony Thomas | 11 | 57 | 5.2 | 1 |
| James Allen | 12 | 27 | 2.3 | 0 |
| Marty Booker | 1 | -5 | -5.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Marcus Robinson | 9 | 10 | 114 | 1 |
| Marty Booker | 1 | 4 | 63 | 1 |
| David Terrell | 1 | 1 | 19 | 0 |
| James Allen | 2 | 3 | 9 | 0 |
| John Davis | 2 | 2 | 9 | 0 |
| Glyn Milburn | 1 | 1 | 5 | 0 |
| Dez White | 1 | 4 | 2 | 0 |
| Anthony Thomas | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Falcons
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mike Vick | 12/18 | 186 | 0 | 0 |
| Chris Chandler | 7/12 | 75 | 0 | 3 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Maurice Smith | 17 | 71 | 4.2 | 0 |
| Mike Vick | 5 | 18 | 3.6 | 0 |
| Rodney Thomas | 1 | 8 | 8.0 | 0 |
| Chris Chandler | 1 | 2 | 2.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Shawn Jefferson | 5 | 6 | 62 | 0 |
| Quentin McCord | 3 | 3 | 53 | 0 |
| Terance Mathis | 4 | 9 | 51 | 0 |
| Alge Crumpler | 2 | 3 | 46 | 0 |
| Brian Finneran | 1 | 1 | 12 | 0 |
| Maurice Smith | 1 | 2 | 8 | 0 |
| Reggie Kelly | 1 | 3 | 5 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Falcons; negative favour Bears.
Half-point at risk
2.38%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
45.5%
Expected total
43.9est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-3.34
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential-0.56
- Expected margin-1.34