2014 · Week 6

Final

Bears

Chicago

QB Jay Cutler

27·13

Falcons

Atlanta

QB Matt Ryan

Georgia Dome · dome · fieldturf

Closing spread

ATL -3.5

Total

55.5

Model margin

+3.5est.

ATL perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Bears

Falcons

Win probability

  • Falcons
  • Bears

How each play moved the game.

Falcons winsBears wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Bearsedge mapFalcons
  • -0.055EPA / play+0.007
  • 44.2%Success rate44.0%
  • -0.032EPA / dropback+0.089
  • -0.104EPA / rush-0.161
  • 7.1%Explosive rate8.4%
  • -0.14CPOE+1.47
  • 38.4%Third-down rate44.6%
  • 67.3%Red-zone TD rate69.1%
  • 1.62Points / drive1.87
  • 2.8%Turnover rate2.1%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

CHI lead 8–4 since 1999

CHI have won 2 straight. Meetings average 41.2 points. ATL are 2-9-1 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2026 · W6CHI @ ATL31–23CHI
2023 · W17ATL @ CHI17–37CHI
2022 · W11CHI @ ATL24–27ATL
2020 · W3CHI @ ATL30–26CHI
2017 · W1ATL @ CHI23–17ATL
2011 · W1ATL @ CHI12–30CHI
2009 · W6CHI @ ATL14–21ATL
2008 · W6CHI @ ATL20–22ATL

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultCHI–ATL
CHIQ1 15:00422Punt0–0
ATLQ1 13:02637Field goal0–3
CHIQ1 9:41731Punt0–3
ATLQ1 5:1537Punt0–3
CHIQ1 3:25945Field goal3–3
ATLQ2 14:47736Punt3–3
CHIQ2 10:36894Touchdown10–3
ATLQ2 5:59519Punt10–3
CHIQ2 4:061183Field goal13–3
ATLQ2 0:0200End of half13–3
ATLQ3 15:009111Touchdown13–10
CHIQ3 11:1937Punt13–10
ATLQ3 9:32933Field goal13–13
CHIQ3 6:19380Touchdown19–13
ATLQ3 5:0639Punt19–13
CHIQ3 3:351692Touchdown27–13
ATLQ4 10:073-4Punt27–13
ATLQ4 9:0500Punt27–13
CHIQ4 8:56525Punt27–13
ATLQ4 5:19519Turnover27–13
CHIQ4 3:3732Punt27–13
ATLQ4 2:36521Turnover on downs27–13
CHIQ4 1:2600End of half27–13

Box score

Individual performances

Bears

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Jay Cutler26/3838110

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Matt Forte17804.72
Ka'Deem Carey4194.80
Jay Cutler640.70
Alshon Jeffery200.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Alshon Jeffery571360
Brandon Marshall691130
Matt Forte1013770
Martellus Bennett48520
Josh Morgan1131

Falcons

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Matt Ryan19/3727111

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Steven Jackson6254.20
Jacquizz Rodgers177.00
Antone Smith252.50
Devonta Freeman252.50
Julio Jones111.00
Matt Ryan1-1-1.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Julio Jones412680
Antone Smith44641
Roddy White36400
Levine Toilolo36340
Devonta Freeman23260
Devin Hester11230
Eric Weems11140
Jacquizz Rodgers1120
Steven Jackson0200

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +3.53.8%6.8%7.5%3.1%4.8%3.1%2.8%

Positive margins favour Falcons; negative favour Bears.

Half-point at risk

2.55%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

58.4%

Expected total

45.6est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+1.01
  • Home-field advantage+2.49
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+3.50