Closing spread
ATL -3.5
Total
55.5
Model margin
+3.5est.
ATL perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Falcons
- Bears
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.055EPA / play+0.007
- 44.2%Success rate44.0%
- -0.032EPA / dropback+0.089
- -0.104EPA / rush-0.161
- 7.1%Explosive rate8.4%
- -0.14CPOE+1.47
- 38.4%Third-down rate44.6%
- 67.3%Red-zone TD rate69.1%
- 1.62Points / drive1.87
- 2.8%Turnover rate2.1%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
CHI lead 7–4 since 1999
Meetings average 40 points. ATL are 2-8-1 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Bears
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jay Cutler | 26/38 | 381 | 1 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matt Forte | 17 | 80 | 4.7 | 2 |
| Ka'Deem Carey | 4 | 19 | 4.8 | 0 |
| Jay Cutler | 6 | 4 | 0.7 | 0 |
| Alshon Jeffery | 2 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alshon Jeffery | 5 | 7 | 136 | 0 |
| Brandon Marshall | 6 | 9 | 113 | 0 |
| Matt Forte | 10 | 13 | 77 | 0 |
| Martellus Bennett | 4 | 8 | 52 | 0 |
| Josh Morgan | 1 | 1 | 3 | 1 |
Falcons
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matt Ryan | 19/37 | 271 | 1 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Steven Jackson | 6 | 25 | 4.2 | 0 |
| Jacquizz Rodgers | 1 | 7 | 7.0 | 0 |
| Antone Smith | 2 | 5 | 2.5 | 0 |
| Devonta Freeman | 2 | 5 | 2.5 | 0 |
| Julio Jones | 1 | 1 | 1.0 | 0 |
| Matt Ryan | 1 | -1 | -1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Julio Jones | 4 | 12 | 68 | 0 |
| Antone Smith | 4 | 4 | 64 | 1 |
| Roddy White | 3 | 6 | 40 | 0 |
| Levine Toilolo | 3 | 6 | 34 | 0 |
| Devonta Freeman | 2 | 3 | 26 | 0 |
| Devin Hester | 1 | 1 | 23 | 0 |
| Eric Weems | 1 | 1 | 14 | 0 |
| Jacquizz Rodgers | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 |
| Steven Jackson | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Falcons; negative favour Bears.
Half-point at risk
2.55%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
58.4%
Expected total
45.6est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+1.01
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+3.50