Closing spread
ATL -6.5
Total
48
Model margin
+0.4est.
CHI perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Bears
- Falcons
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.047EPA / play-0.112
- 45.0%Success rate38.5%
- +0.185EPA / dropback-0.099
- -0.152EPA / rush-0.130
- 9.7%Explosive rate7.7%
- +2.96CPOE-3.10
- 44.1%Third-down rate34.8%
- 57.2%Red-zone TD rate61.2%
- 2.02Points / drive1.22
- 1.7%Turnover rate2.1%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
CHI lead 7–4 since 1999
Meetings average 40 points. CHI are 8-2-1 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Falcons
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matt Ryan | 21/30 | 321 | 1 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Devonta Freeman | 12 | 37 | 3.1 | 1 |
| Tevin Coleman | 8 | 16 | 2.0 | 0 |
| Matt Ryan | 3 | 11 | 3.7 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Austin Hooper | 2 | 2 | 128 | 1 |
| Julio Jones | 4 | 5 | 66 | 0 |
| Mohamed Sanu | 6 | 9 | 47 | 0 |
| Tevin Coleman | 4 | 6 | 42 | 0 |
| Taylor Gabriel | 3 | 4 | 36 | 0 |
| Devonta Freeman | 2 | 2 | 2 | 0 |
| Levine Toilolo | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Bears
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mike Glennon | 26/40 | 213 | 1 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tarik Cohen | 5 | 66 | 13.2 | 0 |
| Jordan Howard | 13 | 52 | 4.0 | 1 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tarik Cohen | 8 | 12 | 47 | 1 |
| Zach Miller | 4 | 6 | 39 | 0 |
| Kendall Wright | 3 | 4 | 34 | 0 |
| Dion Sims | 2 | 3 | 31 | 0 |
| Josh Bellamy | 3 | 4 | 27 | 0 |
| Deonte Thompson | 1 | 2 | 15 | 0 |
| Jordan Howard | 3 | 5 | 14 | 0 |
| Kevin White | 2 | 4 | 6 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Bears; negative favour Falcons.
Half-point at risk
2.89%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
50.1%
Expected total
44.7est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-1.86
- Home-field advantage+1.74
- Quarterback adjustment+0.52
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+0.40