2017 · Week 1

Final

Falcons

Atlanta

QB Matt Ryan

23·17

Bears

Chicago

QB Mike Glennon

Soldier Field · outdoors · grass · 64°F · wind 10mph

Closing spread

ATL -6.5

Total

48

Model margin

+0.4est.

CHI perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Falcons

Bears

Win probability

  • Bears
  • Falcons

How each play moved the game.

Bears winsFalcons wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Falconsedge mapBears
  • +0.047EPA / play-0.112
  • 45.0%Success rate38.5%
  • +0.185EPA / dropback-0.099
  • -0.152EPA / rush-0.130
  • 9.7%Explosive rate7.7%
  • +2.96CPOE-3.10
  • 44.1%Third-down rate34.8%
  • 57.2%Red-zone TD rate61.2%
  • 2.02Points / drive1.22
  • 1.7%Turnover rate2.1%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

CHI lead 8–4 since 1999

CHI have won 2 straight. Meetings average 41.2 points. CHI are 9-2-1 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2026 · W6CHI @ ATL31–23CHI
2023 · W17ATL @ CHI17–37CHI
2022 · W11CHI @ ATL24–27ATL
2020 · W3CHI @ ATL30–26CHI
2014 · W6CHI @ ATL27–13CHI
2011 · W1ATL @ CHI12–30CHI
2009 · W6CHI @ ATL14–21ATL
2008 · W6CHI @ ATL20–22ATL

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultATL–CHI
ATLQ1 15:001062Field goal3–0
CHIQ1 7:56417Punt3–0
ATLQ1 5:2534Punt3–0
CHIQ1 4:19941Field goal3–3
ATLQ2 14:5535Punt3–3
CHIQ2 13:163-4Punt3–3
ATLQ2 11:281293Touchdown10–3
CHIQ2 4:29870Touchdown10–10
ATLQ2 0:1400End of half10–10
CHIQ3 15:0066Punt10–10
ATLQ3 12:093-7Punt10–10
CHIQ3 10:1036Punt10–10
ATLQ3 8:391471Field goal13–10
CHIQ3 2:10827Punt13–10
ATLQ4 12:54395Touchdown20–10
CHIQ4 11:551070Touchdown20–17
ATLQ4 7:26951Field goal23–17
CHIQ4 3:241668Turnover on downs23–17
ATLQ4 0:0300End of half23–17

Box score

Individual performances

Falcons

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Matt Ryan21/3032110

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Devonta Freeman12373.11
Tevin Coleman8162.00
Matt Ryan3113.70

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Austin Hooper221281
Julio Jones45660
Mohamed Sanu69470
Tevin Coleman46420
Taylor Gabriel34360
Devonta Freeman2220
Levine Toilolo0100

Bears

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Mike Glennon26/4021310

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Tarik Cohen56613.20
Jordan Howard13524.01

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Tarik Cohen812471
Zach Miller46390
Kendall Wright34340
Dion Sims23310
Josh Bellamy34270
Deonte Thompson12150
Jordan Howard35140
Kevin White2460

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line -6.52.6%4.3%2.9%7.3%7.4%3.0%4.5%

Positive margins favour Bears; negative favour Falcons.

Half-point at risk

2.89%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

50.1%

Expected total

44.7est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-1.86
  • Home-field advantage+1.74
  • Quarterback adjustment+0.52
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+0.40