2009 · Week 6

Final

Bears

Chicago

QB Jay Cutler

14·21

Falcons

Atlanta

QB Matt Ryan

Georgia Dome · dome · fieldturf

Closing spread

ATL -4

Total

46

Model margin

+4.3est.

ATL perspective

Push chance

2.6%est.

the line sits on a key number

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Bears

Falcons

Win probability

  • Falcons
  • Bears

How each play moved the game.

Falcons winsBears wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Bearsedge mapFalcons
  • -0.089EPA / play+0.041
  • 39.6%Success rate43.4%
  • -0.064EPA / dropback+0.093
  • -0.135EPA / rush-0.036
  • 8.4%Explosive rate8.0%
  • +0.30CPOE-1.75
  • 37.3%Third-down rate42.8%
  • 52.0%Red-zone TD rate59.8%
  • 1.57Points / drive1.97
  • 3.2%Turnover rate2.1%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

CHI lead 8–4 since 1999

CHI have won 2 straight. Meetings average 41.2 points. ATL are 2-9-1 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2026 · W6CHI @ ATL31–23CHI
2023 · W17ATL @ CHI17–37CHI
2022 · W11CHI @ ATL24–27ATL
2020 · W3CHI @ ATL30–26CHI
2017 · W1ATL @ CHI23–17ATL
2014 · W6CHI @ ATL27–13CHI
2011 · W1ATL @ CHI12–30CHI
2008 · W6CHI @ ATL20–22ATL

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultCHI–ATL
ATLQ1 15:0031Punt0–0
CHIQ1 13:481350Turnover0–0
ATLQ1 7:0139Punt0–0
CHIQ1 5:02414Punt0–0
ATLQ1 2:1730Punt0–0
CHIQ1 0:34244Touchdown7–0
ATLQ2 14:5469Punt7–0
CHIQ2 12:09412Turnover7–0
ATLQ2 10:17355Touchdown7–7
CHIQ2 9:03617Punt7–7
ATLQ2 5:061474Touchdown7–14
CHIQ2 0:0400End of half7–14
CHIQ3 15:00617Punt7–14
ATLQ3 11:2733Turnover7–14
CHIQ3 10:1936Punt7–14
ATLQ3 8:1730Punt7–14
CHIQ3 7:141358Turnover7–14
ATLQ3 1:111362Turnover7–14
CHIQ4 9:481079Touchdown14–14
ATLQ4 6:14741Touchdown14–21
CHIQ4 3:061276Turnover on downs14–21
ATLQ4 0:2900End of half14–21

Box score

Individual performances

Bears

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Jay Cutler27/4330022

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Jay Cutler33411.30
Matt Forte15231.50
Garrett Wolfe3155.00
Devin Hester2115.50

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Devin Hester610830
Greg Olsen510571
Earl Bennett45570
Matt Forte55370
Johnny Knox37341
Desmond Clark34320
Jason McKie1200

Falcons

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Matt Ryan19/3318522

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Michael Turner13302.31
Jerious Norwood4215.30
Matt Ryan382.70

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Roddy White46561
Tony Gonzalez49521
Michael Turner22160
Michael Jenkins26150
Jerious Norwood22120
Justin Peelle2280
Brian Finneran1240

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +43.6%6.6%7.5%3.2%4.9%3.2%2.9%

Positive margins favour Falcons; negative favour Bears.

Half-point at risk

2.55%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

60.6%

Expected total

43.9est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+2.41
  • Home-field advantage+2.49
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential-0.56
  • Expected margin+4.34