Closing spread
ATL -4
Total
46
Model margin
+4.3est.
ATL perspective
Push chance
2.6%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Falcons
- Bears
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.089EPA / play+0.041
- 39.6%Success rate43.4%
- -0.064EPA / dropback+0.093
- -0.135EPA / rush-0.036
- 8.4%Explosive rate8.0%
- +0.30CPOE-1.75
- 37.3%Third-down rate42.8%
- 52.0%Red-zone TD rate59.8%
- 1.57Points / drive1.97
- 3.2%Turnover rate2.1%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
CHI lead 7–4 since 1999
Meetings average 40 points. ATL are 2-8-1 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Bears
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jay Cutler | 27/43 | 300 | 2 | 2 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jay Cutler | 3 | 34 | 11.3 | 0 |
| Matt Forte | 15 | 23 | 1.5 | 0 |
| Garrett Wolfe | 3 | 15 | 5.0 | 0 |
| Devin Hester | 2 | 11 | 5.5 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Devin Hester | 6 | 10 | 83 | 0 |
| Greg Olsen | 5 | 10 | 57 | 1 |
| Earl Bennett | 4 | 5 | 57 | 0 |
| Matt Forte | 5 | 5 | 37 | 0 |
| Johnny Knox | 3 | 7 | 34 | 1 |
| Desmond Clark | 3 | 4 | 32 | 0 |
| Jason McKie | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
Falcons
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matt Ryan | 19/33 | 185 | 2 | 2 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Michael Turner | 13 | 30 | 2.3 | 1 |
| Jerious Norwood | 4 | 21 | 5.3 | 0 |
| Matt Ryan | 3 | 8 | 2.7 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Roddy White | 4 | 6 | 56 | 1 |
| Tony Gonzalez | 4 | 9 | 52 | 1 |
| Michael Turner | 2 | 2 | 16 | 0 |
| Michael Jenkins | 2 | 6 | 15 | 0 |
| Jerious Norwood | 2 | 2 | 12 | 0 |
| Justin Peelle | 2 | 2 | 8 | 0 |
| Brian Finneran | 1 | 2 | 4 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Falcons; negative favour Bears.
Half-point at risk
2.55%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
60.6%
Expected total
43.9est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+2.41
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential-0.56
- Expected margin+4.34