2023 · Week 17

Final

Falcons

Atlanta

QB Taylor Heinicke

17·37

Bears

Chicago

QB Justin Fields

Soldier Field · outdoors · grass · 32°F · wind 5mph

Closing spread

CHI -3

Total

39

Model margin

+0.8est.

CHI perspective

Push chance

7.4%est.

the line sits on a key number

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Falcons

Bears

Win probability

  • Bears
  • Falcons

How each play moved the game.

Bears winsFalcons wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Falconsedge mapBears
  • -0.089EPA / play-0.052
  • 41.5%Success rate41.6%
  • -0.026EPA / dropback-0.057
  • -0.171EPA / rush-0.045
  • 8.7%Explosive rate9.6%
  • -3.52CPOE+0.01
  • 40.2%Third-down rate41.7%
  • 53.3%Red-zone TD rate62.5%
  • 1.58Points / drive1.72
  • 2.5%Turnover rate2.2%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

CHI lead 8–4 since 1999

CHI have won 2 straight. Meetings average 41.2 points. CHI are 9-2-1 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2026 · W6CHI @ ATL31–23CHI
2022 · W11CHI @ ATL24–27ATL
2020 · W3CHI @ ATL30–26CHI
2017 · W1ATL @ CHI23–17ATL
2014 · W6CHI @ ATL27–13CHI
2011 · W1ATL @ CHI12–30CHI
2009 · W6CHI @ ATL14–21ATL
2008 · W6CHI @ ATL20–22ATL

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultATL–CHI
ATLQ1 15:00551Missed field goal0–0
CHIQ1 12:20765Touchdown0–7
ATLQ1 8:47951Missed field goal0–7
CHIQ1 3:17868Touchdown0–14
ATLQ2 14:14175Touchdown7–14
CHIQ2 14:0036Punt7–14
ATLQ2 12:3732Punt7–14
CHIQ2 11:081275Touchdown7–21
ATLQ2 4:0231Punt7–21
CHIQ2 3:063-2Punt7–21
ATLQ2 1:4032Turnover7–21
CHIQ2 1:0230Missed field goal7–21
CHIQ3 15:00671Field goal7–24
ATLQ3 11:56841Field goal10–24
CHIQ3 8:29929Turnover on downs10–24
ATLQ3 4:1420Turnover10–24
CHIQ3 3:58632Field goal10–27
ATLQ3 1:101160Touchdown17–27
CHIQ4 12:22535Punt17–27
ATLQ4 8:4330Punt17–27
CHIQ4 8:20620Field goal17–30
ATLQ4 4:594-7Turnover17–30
CHIQ4 3:58341Touchdown17–37
ATLQ4 3:39528Turnover17–37
CHIQ4 2:073-8Punt17–37
ATLQ4 0:5223End of half17–37

Box score

Individual performances

Falcons

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Taylor Heinicke10/2916313
Desmond Ridder3/41701

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Bijan Robinson15755.00
Taylor Heinicke44611.51
Tyler Allgeier5132.60

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Tyler Allgeier11751
Drake London410560
Van Jefferson35190
MyCole Pruitt11140
Bijan Robinson34110
Kyle Pitts1550
Jonnu Smith0400
KhaDarel Hodge0200

Bears

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Justin Fields20/3226810

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Khalil Herbert181246.91
Justin Fields11454.11
Roschon Johnson7213.01
Velus Jones Jr.122.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
DJ Moore9131591
Robert Tonyan34400
Roschon Johnson33380
Tyler Scott25150
Collin Johnson11110
Khalil Herbert2350

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +32.6%4.3%2.9%7.3%7.4%3.0%4.5%2.8%

Positive margins favour Bears; negative favour Falcons.

Half-point at risk

7.42%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

51.1%

Expected total

43.3est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.69
  • Home-field advantage+1.71
  • Quarterback adjustment-1.64
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+0.75