Closing spread
CHI -3
Total
39
Model margin
+0.8est.
CHI perspective
Push chance
7.4%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Bears
- Falcons
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.089EPA / play-0.052
- 41.5%Success rate41.6%
- -0.026EPA / dropback-0.057
- -0.171EPA / rush-0.045
- 8.7%Explosive rate9.6%
- -3.52CPOE+0.01
- 40.2%Third-down rate41.7%
- 53.3%Red-zone TD rate62.5%
- 1.58Points / drive1.72
- 2.5%Turnover rate2.2%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
CHI lead 7–4 since 1999
Meetings average 40 points. CHI are 8-2-1 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Falcons
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Taylor Heinicke | 10/29 | 163 | 1 | 3 |
| Desmond Ridder | 3/4 | 17 | 0 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bijan Robinson | 15 | 75 | 5.0 | 0 |
| Taylor Heinicke | 4 | 46 | 11.5 | 1 |
| Tyler Allgeier | 5 | 13 | 2.6 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tyler Allgeier | 1 | 1 | 75 | 1 |
| Drake London | 4 | 10 | 56 | 0 |
| Van Jefferson | 3 | 5 | 19 | 0 |
| MyCole Pruitt | 1 | 1 | 14 | 0 |
| Bijan Robinson | 3 | 4 | 11 | 0 |
| Kyle Pitts | 1 | 5 | 5 | 0 |
| Jonnu Smith | 0 | 4 | 0 | 0 |
| KhaDarel Hodge | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
Bears
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Justin Fields | 20/32 | 268 | 1 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Khalil Herbert | 18 | 124 | 6.9 | 1 |
| Justin Fields | 11 | 45 | 4.1 | 1 |
| Roschon Johnson | 7 | 21 | 3.0 | 1 |
| Velus Jones Jr. | 1 | 2 | 2.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DJ Moore | 9 | 13 | 159 | 1 |
| Robert Tonyan | 3 | 4 | 40 | 0 |
| Roschon Johnson | 3 | 3 | 38 | 0 |
| Tyler Scott | 2 | 5 | 15 | 0 |
| Collin Johnson | 1 | 1 | 11 | 0 |
| Khalil Herbert | 2 | 3 | 5 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Bears; negative favour Falcons.
Half-point at risk
7.42%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
51.1%
Expected total
43.3est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.69
- Home-field advantage+1.71
- Quarterback adjustment-1.64
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+0.75