Closing spread
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Total
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Model margin
-7.1est.
ATL perspective
Push chance
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Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
Bearsedge mapFalcons
- +0.361EPA / play-0.358
- 53.3%Success rate36.7%
- +0.551EPA / dropback-0.638
- +0.143EPA / rush-0.113
- 12.0%Explosive rate10.0%
- +16.58CPOE-10.42
- 71.4%Third-down rate16.7%
- 100.0%Red-zone TD rate100.0%
- 4.19Points / drive0.46
- 1.3%Turnover rate3.3%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
CHI lead 7–4 since 1999
Meetings average 40 points. ATL are 2-8-1 ATS in the series.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-9.31
- Home-field advantage+2.22
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin-7.09