2026 · Week 6

Final

Bears

Chicago

QB Caleb Williams

31·23

Falcons

Atlanta

QB Michael Penix Jr.

Mercedes-Benz Stadium · closed

Closing spread

CHI -1.5

Total

51.5

Model margin

+1.2est.

ATL perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Bears

Falcons

Win probability

  • Falcons
  • Bears

How each play moved the game.

Falcons winsBears wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Bearsedge mapFalcons
  • +0.052EPA / play-0.038
  • 47.0%Success rate44.5%
  • +0.154EPA / dropback-0.070
  • -0.082EPA / rush+0.001
  • 9.6%Explosive rate9.0%
  • +5.30CPOE-4.68
  • 44.6%Third-down rate39.3%
  • 51.9%Red-zone TD rate61.9%
  • 2.27Points / drive1.93
  • 2.1%Turnover rate2.3%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

CHI lead 8–4 since 1999

CHI have won 2 straight. Meetings average 41.2 points. ATL are 2-9-1 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2023 · W17ATL @ CHI17–37CHI
2022 · W11CHI @ ATL24–27ATL
2020 · W3CHI @ ATL30–26CHI
2017 · W1ATL @ CHI23–17ATL
2014 · W6CHI @ ATL27–13CHI
2011 · W1ATL @ CHI12–30CHI
2009 · W6CHI @ ATL14–21ATL
2008 · W6CHI @ ATL20–22ATL

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultCHI–ATL
CHIQ1 15:001187Touchdown7–0
ATLQ1 8:1531Punt7–0
CHIQ1 6:34967Touchdown14–0
ATLQ1 1:0732Punt14–0
CHIQ2 14:45520Punt14–0
ATLQ2 11:56637Turnover on downs14–0
CHIQ2 9:25513Missed field goal14–0
ATLQ2 7:19454Touchdown14–7
CHIQ2 5:45740Punt14–7
CHIQ2 1:43310Touchdown21–7
ATLQ2 1:2653Punt21–7
CHIQ2 0:4736End of half21–7
ATLQ3 15:0086Turnover on downs21–7
CHIQ3 10:32731Punt21–7
ATLQ3 6:453-3Punt21–7
CHIQ3 4:28752Touchdown28–7
ATLQ3 1:4800Field goal28–7
CHIQ3 1:403-1Field goal31–7
ATLQ4 14:5645Turnover on downs31–7
CHIQ4 14:323-3Punt31–7
ATLQ4 12:12891Touchdown31–15
CHIQ4 9:34429Turnover31–15
ATLQ4 7:11557Touchdown31–23
CHIQ4 5:413-1Punt31–23
ATLQ4 3:3444Turnover31–23
CHIQ4 2:54619End of half31–23

Box score

Individual performances

Bears

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Caleb Williams30/3630510

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Roschon Johnson13513.91
D'Andre Swift16442.82
Caleb Williams430.80

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Luther Burden III88950
Colston Loveland67651
Rome Odunze34390
Roschon Johnson22340
D'Andre Swift45260
Zavion Thomas33250
Kalif Raymond22180
Cole Kmet2230

Falcons

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Michael Penix Jr.19/3322530

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Bijan Robinson9616.80
Brian Robinson210.50
Michael Penix Jr.111.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Jahan Dotson35871
Drake London410620
Kyle Pitts57602
Brian Robinson2290
Zachariah Branch2290
Austin Hooper1160
Olamide Zaccheaus0400
Bijan Robinson22-80

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line -1.54.2%2.8%7.2%7.5%3.0%4.6%2.9%

Positive margins favour Falcons; negative favour Bears.

Half-point at risk

2.14%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

52.3%

Expected total

44.1est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-1.02
  • Home-field advantage+2.22
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+1.20