2022 · Week 11

Final

Bears

Chicago

QB Justin Fields

24·27

Falcons

Atlanta

QB Marcus Mariota

Mercedes-Benz Stadium · closed · fieldturf

Closing spread

ATL -3

Total

48.5

Model margin

+4.9est.

ATL perspective

Push chance

7.5%est.

the line sits on a key number

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Bears

Falcons

Win probability

  • Falcons
  • Bears

How each play moved the game.

Falcons winsBears wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Bearsedge mapFalcons
  • -0.039EPA / play+0.002
  • 41.1%Success rate45.4%
  • -0.070EPA / dropback-0.001
  • -0.004EPA / rush+0.004
  • 10.4%Explosive rate9.6%
  • -4.05CPOE-0.74
  • 41.0%Third-down rate41.9%
  • 60.7%Red-zone TD rate60.2%
  • 1.78Points / drive1.97
  • 2.3%Turnover rate1.8%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

CHI lead 8–4 since 1999

CHI have won 2 straight. Meetings average 41.2 points. ATL are 2-9-1 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2026 · W6CHI @ ATL31–23CHI
2023 · W17ATL @ CHI17–37CHI
2020 · W3CHI @ ATL30–26CHI
2017 · W1ATL @ CHI23–17ATL
2014 · W6CHI @ ATL27–13CHI
2011 · W1ATL @ CHI12–30CHI
2009 · W6CHI @ ATL14–21ATL
2008 · W6CHI @ ATL20–22ATL

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultCHI–ATL
ATLQ1 15:001069Touchdown0–7
CHIQ1 9:37744Touchdown7–7
ATLQ1 6:02618Punt7–7
CHIQ1 2:59517Punt7–7
CHIQ1 0:0255Punt7–7
ATLQ2 12:4545Punt7–7
CHIQ2 11:37647Field goal10–7
ATLQ2 7:42117Turnover10–7
CHIQ2 7:24729Touchdown17–13
ATLQ2 4:3100Touchdown17–14
CHIQ2 4:181047Missed field goal17–14
ATLQ2 1:10542Field goal17–17
CHIQ3 15:0030Punt17–17
ATLQ3 13:15416Punt17–17
CHIQ3 10:43812Punt17–17
ATLQ3 5:15746Touchdown17–24
CHIQ3 1:481582Touchdown24–24
ATLQ4 8:161140Field goal24–27
CHIQ4 1:4735Turnover24–27
ATLQ4 1:07230End of half24–27

Box score

Individual performances

Bears

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Justin Fields14/2115311

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Justin Fields18854.71
David Montgomery17673.91
Trestan Ebner681.30

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
David Montgomery34540
Cole Kmet34350
Darnell Mooney45291
Equanimeous St. Brown22240
Chase Claypool23110
Trestan Ebner0100

Falcons

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Marcus Mariota13/2013110

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Tyler Allgeier8556.90
Cordarrelle Patterson10525.20
Marcus Mariota13251.91
Olamide Zaccheaus11313.00
Caleb Huntley144.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Kyle Pitts35430
Damiere Byrd22290
MyCole Pruitt11170
KhaDarel Hodge11130
Olamide Zaccheaus1290
Tyler Allgeier1190
Cordarrelle Patterson2270
Caleb Huntley1120
Drake London1321

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +33.5%6.5%7.5%3.2%4.9%3.2%3.0%

Positive margins favour Falcons; negative favour Bears.

Half-point at risk

7.46%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

62.1%

Expected total

45.1est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+2.97
  • Home-field advantage+1.71
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential+0.24
  • Expected margin+4.91