Closing spread
ATL -3
Total
48.5
Model margin
+4.9est.
ATL perspective
Push chance
7.5%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Falcons
- Bears
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.039EPA / play+0.002
- 41.1%Success rate45.4%
- -0.070EPA / dropback-0.001
- -0.004EPA / rush+0.004
- 10.4%Explosive rate9.6%
- -4.05CPOE-0.74
- 41.0%Third-down rate41.9%
- 60.7%Red-zone TD rate60.2%
- 1.78Points / drive1.97
- 2.3%Turnover rate1.8%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
CHI lead 7–4 since 1999
Meetings average 40 points. ATL are 2-8-1 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Bears
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Justin Fields | 14/21 | 153 | 1 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Justin Fields | 18 | 85 | 4.7 | 1 |
| David Montgomery | 17 | 67 | 3.9 | 1 |
| Trestan Ebner | 6 | 8 | 1.3 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| David Montgomery | 3 | 4 | 54 | 0 |
| Cole Kmet | 3 | 4 | 35 | 0 |
| Darnell Mooney | 4 | 5 | 29 | 1 |
| Equanimeous St. Brown | 2 | 2 | 24 | 0 |
| Chase Claypool | 2 | 3 | 11 | 0 |
| Trestan Ebner | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Falcons
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Marcus Mariota | 13/20 | 131 | 1 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tyler Allgeier | 8 | 55 | 6.9 | 0 |
| Cordarrelle Patterson | 10 | 52 | 5.2 | 0 |
| Marcus Mariota | 13 | 25 | 1.9 | 1 |
| Olamide Zaccheaus | 1 | 13 | 13.0 | 0 |
| Caleb Huntley | 1 | 4 | 4.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kyle Pitts | 3 | 5 | 43 | 0 |
| Damiere Byrd | 2 | 2 | 29 | 0 |
| MyCole Pruitt | 1 | 1 | 17 | 0 |
| KhaDarel Hodge | 1 | 1 | 13 | 0 |
| Olamide Zaccheaus | 1 | 2 | 9 | 0 |
| Tyler Allgeier | 1 | 1 | 9 | 0 |
| Cordarrelle Patterson | 2 | 2 | 7 | 0 |
| Caleb Huntley | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 |
| Drake London | 1 | 3 | 2 | 1 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Falcons; negative favour Bears.
Half-point at risk
7.46%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
62.1%
Expected total
45.1est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+2.97
- Home-field advantage+1.71
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential+0.24
- Expected margin+4.91