Closing spread
ATL -1
Total
40.5
Model margin
+0.5est.
CHI perspective
Push chance
2.1%est.
Win probability
- Bears
- Falcons
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.046EPA / play-0.110
- 43.6%Success rate39.3%
- +0.130EPA / dropback-0.105
- -0.087EPA / rush-0.117
- 9.6%Explosive rate9.6%
- +1.80CPOE-2.53
- 45.0%Third-down rate32.9%
- 57.5%Red-zone TD rate62.0%
- 1.86Points / drive1.37
- 1.8%Turnover rate2.9%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
CHI lead 7–4 since 1999
Meetings average 40 points. CHI are 8-2-1 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Falcons
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matt Ryan | 31/47 | 319 | 0 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Michael Turner | 10 | 100 | 10.0 | 0 |
| Jacquizz Rodgers | 2 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tony Gonzalez | 5 | 7 | 72 | 0 |
| Julio Jones | 5 | 6 | 71 | 0 |
| Roddy White | 8 | 13 | 61 | 0 |
| Michael Turner | 3 | 4 | 40 | 0 |
| Jacquizz Rodgers | 3 | 5 | 33 | 0 |
| Harry Douglas | 2 | 4 | 10 | 0 |
Bears
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jay Cutler | 22/32 | 312 | 2 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matt Forte | 16 | 68 | 4.3 | 0 |
| Kahlil Bell | 10 | 24 | 2.4 | 0 |
| Dane Sanzenbacher | 1 | -4 | -4.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matt Forte | 5 | 6 | 90 | 1 |
| Devin Hester | 3 | 5 | 60 | 0 |
| Johnny Knox | 3 | 4 | 60 | 0 |
| Roy Williams | 4 | 4 | 55 | 0 |
| Kellen Davis | 2 | 5 | 23 | 0 |
| Earl Bennett | 2 | 4 | 11 | 0 |
| Matt Spaeth | 2 | 2 | 7 | 1 |
| Dane Sanzenbacher | 1 | 1 | 6 | 0 |
| Kahlil Bell | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Bears; negative favour Falcons.
Half-point at risk
2.15%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
50.4%
Expected total
43.7est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-1.98
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+0.51