2011 · Week 1

Final

Falcons

Atlanta

QB Matt Ryan

12·30

Bears

Chicago

QB Jay Cutler

Soldier Field · outdoors · grass · 76°F · wind 7mph

Closing spread

ATL -1

Total

40.5

Model margin

+0.5est.

CHI perspective

Push chance

2.1%est.

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Falcons

Bears

Win probability

  • Bears
  • Falcons

How each play moved the game.

Bears winsFalcons wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Falconsedge mapBears
  • +0.046EPA / play-0.110
  • 43.6%Success rate39.3%
  • +0.130EPA / dropback-0.105
  • -0.087EPA / rush-0.117
  • 9.6%Explosive rate9.6%
  • +1.80CPOE-2.53
  • 45.0%Third-down rate32.9%
  • 57.5%Red-zone TD rate62.0%
  • 1.86Points / drive1.37
  • 1.8%Turnover rate2.9%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

CHI lead 8–4 since 1999

CHI have won 2 straight. Meetings average 41.2 points. CHI are 9-2-1 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2026 · W6CHI @ ATL31–23CHI
2023 · W17ATL @ CHI17–37CHI
2022 · W11CHI @ ATL24–27ATL
2020 · W3CHI @ ATL30–26CHI
2017 · W1ATL @ CHI23–17ATL
2014 · W6CHI @ ATL27–13CHI
2009 · W6CHI @ ATL14–21ATL
2008 · W6CHI @ ATL20–22ATL

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultATL–CHI
CHIQ1 15:00954Field goal0–3
ATLQ1 9:581045Field goal3–3
CHIQ1 5:2438Punt3–3
ATLQ1 3:42322Turnover3–3
CHIQ1 2:42372Touchdown3–10
ATLQ1 1:10238Turnover3–10
CHIQ1 0:223-1Punt3–10
ATLQ2 14:273-3Punt3–10
CHIQ2 12:25625Field goal3–13
ATLQ2 8:42530Punt3–13
CHIQ2 6:141367Field goal3–16
ATLQ2 0:55427End of half3–16
ATLQ3 15:001087Field goal6–16
CHIQ3 10:13792Touchdown6–23
ATLQ3 6:553-8Opp touchdown6–30
ATLQ3 5:58354Punt6–30
ATLQ3 4:4510Punt6–30
ATLQ3 4:2228Punt6–30
CHIQ3 3:2030Punt6–30
ATLQ3 2:3662Punt6–30
CHIQ4 14:50848Opp touchdown12–30
CHIQ4 10:2343Punt12–30
ATLQ4 7:3840Punt12–30
CHIQ4 6:0549Punt12–30
ATLQ4 4:401169Turnover on downs12–30
CHIQ4 2:4230Punt12–30
ATLQ4 0:15115End of half12–30

Box score

Individual performances

Falcons

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Matt Ryan31/4731901

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Michael Turner1010010.00
Jacquizz Rodgers200.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Tony Gonzalez57720
Julio Jones56710
Roddy White813610
Michael Turner34400
Jacquizz Rodgers35330
Harry Douglas24100

Bears

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Jay Cutler22/3231221

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Matt Forte16684.30
Kahlil Bell10242.40
Dane Sanzenbacher1-4-4.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Matt Forte56901
Devin Hester35600
Johnny Knox34600
Roy Williams44550
Kellen Davis25230
Earl Bennett24110
Matt Spaeth2271
Dane Sanzenbacher1160
Kahlil Bell0100

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line -12.6%4.3%2.9%7.3%7.4%3.0%4.5%2.8%

Positive margins favour Bears; negative favour Falcons.

Half-point at risk

2.15%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

50.4%

Expected total

43.7est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-1.98
  • Home-field advantage+2.49
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+0.51