2020 · Week 3

Final

Bears

Chicago

QB Mitch Trubisky

30·26

Falcons

Atlanta

QB Matt Ryan

Mercedes-Benz Stadium · closed · fieldturf

Closing spread

ATL -2.5

Total

46

Model margin

+0.9est.

ATL perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Bears

Falcons

Win probability

  • Falcons
  • Bears

How each play moved the game.

Falcons winsBears wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Bearsedge mapFalcons
  • -0.016EPA / play+0.042
  • 44.0%Success rate44.3%
  • +0.014EPA / dropback+0.145
  • -0.073EPA / rush-0.148
  • 7.5%Explosive rate8.0%
  • +1.28CPOE+1.23
  • 34.8%Third-down rate43.8%
  • 57.4%Red-zone TD rate55.3%
  • 1.97Points / drive2.28
  • 2.0%Turnover rate1.6%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

CHI lead 8–4 since 1999

CHI have won 2 straight. Meetings average 41.2 points. ATL are 2-9-1 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2026 · W6CHI @ ATL31–23CHI
2023 · W17ATL @ CHI17–37CHI
2022 · W11CHI @ ATL24–27ATL
2017 · W1ATL @ CHI23–17ATL
2014 · W6CHI @ ATL27–13CHI
2011 · W1ATL @ CHI12–30CHI
2009 · W6CHI @ ATL14–21ATL
2008 · W6CHI @ ATL20–22ATL

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultCHI–ATL
CHIQ1 15:00847Missed field goal0–0
ATLQ1 10:52364Touchdown0–6
CHIQ1 9:431268Field goal3–6
ATLQ1 2:43421Punt3–6
CHIQ1 0:4933Punt3–6
ATLQ2 14:491153Field goal3–9
CHIQ2 8:313-1Punt3–9
ATLQ2 5:54742Touchdown3–16
CHIQ2 4:37780Touchdown10–16
ATLQ2 1:5037Punt10–16
CHIQ2 1:1038Punt10–16
ATLQ2 0:46525End of half10–16
ATLQ3 15:00760Touchdown10–23
CHIQ3 12:3432Turnover10–23
ATLQ3 10:5331Field goal10–26
CHIQ3 9:58739Turnover10–26
ATLQ3 6:23540Punt10–26
CHIQ3 3:4532Punt10–26
ATLQ3 1:57622Missed field goal10–26
CHIQ4 13:351035Turnover on downs10–26
ATLQ4 10:4635Punt10–26
CHIQ4 9:101052Touchdown16–26
ATLQ4 6:2031Punt16–26
CHIQ4 5:20350Touchdown23–26
ATLQ4 4:2130Punt23–26
CHIQ4 3:59544Touchdown30–26
ATLQ4 1:53431Turnover30–26
CHIQ4 1:06111End of half30–26

Box score

Individual performances

Bears

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Nick Foles16/2918831
Mitchell Trubisky13/2212811

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Mitchell Trubisky14545.00
David Montgomery14453.20
Tarik Cohen22110.50
Cordarrelle Patterson4133.30
Anthony Miller199.00
Nick Foles3-3-1.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Allen Robinson10131231
Jimmy Graham610602
Anthony Miller25411
Ted Ginn13290
Tarik Cohen36200
Darnell Mooney25190
Demetrius Harris33150
David Montgomery2390
Javon Wims0100

Falcons

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Matt Ryan19/3823811

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Todd Gurley14805.71
Brian Hill9586.41
Calvin Ridley177.00
Matt Ryan1-1-1.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Calvin Ridley5131100
Olamide Zaccheaus46410
Brandon Powell34270
Russell Gage23260
Brian Hill13220
Luke Stocker1160
Todd Gurley1220
Hayden Hurst1311
Ito Smith0200

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +2.54.3%2.8%7.2%7.4%3.0%4.5%2.8%

Positive margins favour Falcons; negative favour Bears.

Half-point at risk

7.44%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

51.5%

Expected total

46.5est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.78
  • Home-field advantage+1.71
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+0.92