Closing spread
ATL -2.5
Total
46
Model margin
+0.9est.
ATL perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Falcons
- Bears
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.016EPA / play+0.042
- 44.0%Success rate44.3%
- +0.014EPA / dropback+0.145
- -0.073EPA / rush-0.148
- 7.5%Explosive rate8.0%
- +1.28CPOE+1.23
- 34.8%Third-down rate43.8%
- 57.4%Red-zone TD rate55.3%
- 1.97Points / drive2.28
- 2.0%Turnover rate1.6%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
CHI lead 7–4 since 1999
Meetings average 40 points. ATL are 2-8-1 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Bears
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nick Foles | 16/29 | 188 | 3 | 1 |
| Mitchell Trubisky | 13/22 | 128 | 1 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mitchell Trubisky | 1 | 45 | 45.0 | 0 |
| David Montgomery | 14 | 45 | 3.2 | 0 |
| Tarik Cohen | 2 | 21 | 10.5 | 0 |
| Cordarrelle Patterson | 4 | 13 | 3.3 | 0 |
| Anthony Miller | 1 | 9 | 9.0 | 0 |
| Nick Foles | 3 | -3 | -1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Allen Robinson | 10 | 13 | 123 | 1 |
| Jimmy Graham | 6 | 10 | 60 | 2 |
| Anthony Miller | 2 | 5 | 41 | 1 |
| Ted Ginn | 1 | 3 | 29 | 0 |
| Tarik Cohen | 3 | 6 | 20 | 0 |
| Darnell Mooney | 2 | 5 | 19 | 0 |
| Demetrius Harris | 3 | 3 | 15 | 0 |
| David Montgomery | 2 | 3 | 9 | 0 |
| Javon Wims | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Falcons
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matt Ryan | 19/38 | 238 | 1 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Todd Gurley | 14 | 80 | 5.7 | 1 |
| Brian Hill | 9 | 58 | 6.4 | 1 |
| Calvin Ridley | 1 | 7 | 7.0 | 0 |
| Matt Ryan | 1 | -1 | -1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Calvin Ridley | 5 | 13 | 110 | 0 |
| Olamide Zaccheaus | 4 | 6 | 41 | 0 |
| Brandon Powell | 3 | 4 | 27 | 0 |
| Russell Gage | 2 | 3 | 26 | 0 |
| Brian Hill | 1 | 3 | 22 | 0 |
| Luke Stocker | 1 | 1 | 6 | 0 |
| Todd Gurley | 1 | 2 | 2 | 0 |
| Hayden Hurst | 1 | 3 | 1 | 1 |
| Ito Smith | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Falcons; negative favour Bears.
Half-point at risk
7.44%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
51.5%
Expected total
46.5est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.78
- Home-field advantage+1.71
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+0.92