Closing spread
PIT -5
Total
35.5
Model margin
+5.6est.
PIT perspective
Push chance
2.0%est.
Win probability
- Steelers
- Bengals
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.090EPA / play+0.060
- 39.0%Success rate42.5%
- -0.080EPA / dropback+0.159
- -0.106EPA / rush-0.039
- 6.9%Explosive rate11.5%
- 37.7%Third-down rate45.8%
- 46.6%Red-zone TD rate45.4%
- 0.98Points / drive1.58
- 3.1%Turnover rate1.9%
- -0.112EPA / play allowed-0.148
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
PIT lead 41–16 since 1999
PIT have won 2 straight. Meetings average 42.4 points. PIT are 38-18-1 ATS in the series.
Possession by possession
How it unfolded
Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.
| Ball | Start | Plays | Yards | Result | CIN–PIT |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CIN | Q1 15:00 | 7 | 9 | Punt | 0–0 |
| PIT | Q1 11:24 | 6 | 61 | Turnover on downs | 0–0 |
| CIN | Q1 8:23 | 3 | 9 | Punt | 0–0 |
| PIT | Q1 6:41 | 3 | 6 | Punt | 0–0 |
| CIN | Q1 5:40 | 3 | 9 | Punt | 0–0 |
| PIT | Q1 3:44 | 9 | 51 | Field goal | 0–3 |
| CIN | Q2 14:47 | 8 | 43 | Turnover | 0–3 |
| PIT | Q2 10:17 | 9 | 77 | Touchdown | 0–10 |
| CIN | Q2 5:21 | 3 | -1 | Punt | 0–10 |
| PIT | Q2 3:23 | 8 | 54 | Turnover | 0–10 |
| CIN | Q2 0:20 | 1 | -1 | End of half | 0–10 |
| PIT | Q3 15:00 | 3 | 13 | Turnover | 0–10 |
| CIN | Q3 13:42 | 3 | 9 | Missed field goal | 0–10 |
| PIT | Q3 12:11 | 5 | 23 | Turnover on downs | 0–10 |
| CIN | Q3 9:19 | 6 | 22 | Punt | 0–10 |
| PIT | Q3 6:28 | 8 | 31 | Punt | 0–10 |
| CIN | Q3 1:10 | 10 | 38 | Punt | 0–10 |
| PIT | Q4 13:10 | 7 | 57 | Field goal | 0–13 |
| CIN | Q4 8:55 | 12 | 77 | Touchdown | 7–13 |
| PIT | Q4 4:45 | 7 | 42 | Field goal | 7–16 |
| CIN | Q4 1:52 | 3 | 0 | Punt | 7–16 |
| PIT | Q4 1:20 | 2 | -2 | End of half | 7–16 |
Box score
Individual performances
Bengals
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jon Kitna | 19/34 | 164 | 1 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Corey Dillon | 19 | 64 | 3.4 | 0 |
| Jon Kitna | 2 | 1 | 0.5 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Darnay Scott | 5 | 7 | 62 | 0 |
| Chad Johnson | 5 | 6 | 52 | 0 |
| Peter Warrick | 4 | 8 | 39 | 0 |
| Tony McGee | 1 | 3 | 7 | 0 |
| Marco Battaglia | 1 | 4 | 3 | 0 |
| Corey Dillon | 1 | 4 | -2 | 0 |
Steelers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kordell Stewart | 15/24 | 151 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jerome Bettis | 23 | 153 | 6.7 | 0 |
| Kordell Stewart | 9 | 62 | 6.9 | 1 |
| Amos Zereoue | 8 | 60 | 7.5 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Hines Ward | 8 | 10 | 68 | 0 |
| Plaxico Burress | 3 | 8 | 37 | 0 |
| Bobby Shaw | 1 | 3 | 22 | 0 |
| Mark Bruener | 1 | 1 | 15 | 0 |
| Jerome Bettis | 1 | 1 | 7 | 0 |
| Amos Zereoue | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Steelers; negative favour Bengals.
Half-point at risk
1.97%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
63.8%
Expected total
42.6est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+3.01
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+5.57