2001 · Week 4 · Division
Final
Raymond James Stadium · outdoors · grass · 80°F · wind 9mph
Closing spread
TB -3
Total
36.5
Model margin
+0.9est.
TB perspective
Push chance
7.4%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Buccaneers
- Packers
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.054EPA / play-0.025
- 42.5%Success rate39.6%
- +0.197EPA / dropback+0.010
- -0.149EPA / rush-0.085
- 9.5%Explosive rate6.6%
- 35.7%Third-down rate35.3%
- 63.7%Red-zone TD rate42.8%
- 1.76Points / drive1.43
- 2.6%Turnover rate1.8%
- -0.110EPA / play allowed-0.085
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
TB lead 10–8 since 1999
Meetings average 41.4 points. TB are 11-7 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Packers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brett Favre | 20/35 | 258 | 1 | 3 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ahman Green | 15 | 59 | 3.9 | 0 |
| Dorsey Levens | 2 | 9 | 4.5 | 0 |
| Brett Favre | 2 | 5 | 2.5 | 0 |
| Antonio Freeman | 1 | -5 | -5.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bill Schroeder | 4 | 6 | 119 | 1 |
| Ahman Green | 7 | 7 | 65 | 0 |
| David Martin | 2 | 3 | 33 | 0 |
| Corey Bradford | 1 | 4 | 9 | 0 |
| Bubba Franks | 1 | 4 | 8 | 0 |
| Antonio Freeman | 1 | 2 | 6 | 0 |
| Dorsey Levens | 2 | 3 | 5 | 0 |
| Donald Driver | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Buccaneers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brad Johnson | 23/29 | 184 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brad Johnson | 2 | 16 | 8.0 | 0 |
| Aaron Stecker | 2 | 6 | 3.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Keyshawn Johnson | 9 | 11 | 82 | 0 |
| Reidel Anthony | 3 | 3 | 40 | 0 |
| Dave Moore | 3 | 3 | 18 | 0 |
| Jameel Cook | 4 | 5 | 18 | 0 |
| Jacquez Green | 1 | 1 | 11 | 0 |
| Karl Williams | 1 | 1 | 8 | 0 |
| Aaron Stecker | 1 | 2 | 4 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Buccaneers; negative favour Packers.
Half-point at risk
7.43%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
51.4%
Expected total
43.5est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-1.68
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+0.88