Closing spread
DEN -10
Total
48
Model margin
+1.2est.
DEN perspective
Push chance
2.9%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Broncos
- Chiefs
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.014EPA / play-0.044
- 43.9%Success rate42.2%
- +0.002EPA / dropback-0.020
- +0.032EPA / rush-0.075
- 10.8%Explosive rate6.2%
- 36.1%Third-down rate37.7%
- 50.6%Red-zone TD rate55.8%
- 1.54Points / drive1.49
- 3.0%Turnover rate2.4%
- -0.011EPA / play allowed-0.038
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
KC lead 31–24 since 1999
Meetings average 43.8 points. DEN are 26-28-1 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Chiefs
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Trent Green | 25/40 | 283 | 0 | 4 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Priest Holmes | 17 | 42 | 2.5 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tony Gonzalez | 8 | 11 | 129 | 0 |
| Priest Holmes | 7 | 7 | 58 | 0 |
| Snoop Minnis | 5 | 8 | 56 | 0 |
| Derrick Alexander | 4 | 8 | 33 | 0 |
| Chris Thomas | 1 | 5 | 7 | 0 |
Broncos
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brian Griese | 11/20 | 121 | 1 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mike Anderson | 22 | 155 | 7.0 | 1 |
| Olandis Gary | 9 | 28 | 3.1 | 0 |
| Brian Griese | 8 | 14 | 1.8 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rod Smith | 8 | 12 | 110 | 1 |
| Patrick Hape | 2 | 2 | 11 | 0 |
| Travis McGriff | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Broncos; negative favour Chiefs.
Half-point at risk
2.86%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
52.4%
Expected total
45.3est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-1.34
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+1.22