Closing spread
SD -3
Total
35
Model margin
+0.8est.
CLE perspective
Push chance
7.3%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Browns
- Chargers
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
The rivalry
SD lead 11–3 since 1999
CHARGERS have won 5 straight. Meetings average 44.1 points. CLE are 7-7 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Browns
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tim Couch | 14/27 | 203 | 1 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| James Jackson | 26 | 68 | 2.6 | 1 |
| Tim Couch | 2 | 24 | 12.0 | 0 |
| Quincy Morgan | 1 | 4 | 4.0 | 0 |
| Jamel White | 2 | 1 | 0.5 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rickey Dudley | 3 | 4 | 63 | 0 |
| Kevin Johnson | 3 | 4 | 38 | 1 |
| JaJuan Dawson | 2 | 3 | 38 | 0 |
| Quincy Morgan | 2 | 5 | 26 | 0 |
| Dennis Northcutt | 1 | 2 | 14 | 0 |
| Aaron Shea | 1 | 2 | 10 | 0 |
| Jammi German | 1 | 2 | 8 | 0 |
| Jamel White | 1 | 3 | 6 | 0 |
| James Jackson | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Browns; negative favour Chargers.
Half-point at risk
7.26%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
51.1%
Expected total
43.1est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-1.81
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+0.76
One or both ratings are carry-over priors — no games have been played this season yet, so treat this as a starting assumption rather than a read.