Closing spread
STL -12.5
Total
48.5
Model margin
-1.4est.
DET perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Lions
- Rams
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
The rivalry
All square 7–7 since 1999
Meetings average 50 points. DET are 6-8 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Lions
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ty Detmer | 15/18 | 149 | 0 | 1 |
| Charlie Batch | 11/16 | 113 | 0 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| James Stewart | 13 | 88 | 6.8 | 0 |
| Desmond Howard | 2 | 11 | 5.5 | 0 |
| Charlie Batch | 1 | 7 | 7.0 | 0 |
| Ty Detmer | 1 | -1 | -1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Germane Crowell | 5 | 8 | 65 | 0 |
| Johnnie Morton | 4 | 4 | 40 | 0 |
| James Stewart | 4 | 5 | 36 | 0 |
| Herman Moore | 2 | 3 | 35 | 0 |
| David Sloan | 2 | 2 | 35 | 0 |
| Lamont Warren | 3 | 3 | 19 | 0 |
| Pete Mitchell | 3 | 3 | 13 | 0 |
| Desmond Howard | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Larry Foster | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Lions; negative favour Rams.
Half-point at risk
1.10%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
45.3%
Expected total
44.0est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-2.41
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment-2.11
- Rest differential+0.56
- Expected margin-1.40
One or both ratings are carry-over priors — no games have been played this season yet, so treat this as a starting assumption rather than a read.