Closing spread
LA -17
Total
51
Model margin
+4.7est.
LA perspective
Push chance
2.3%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Rams
- Lions
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.061EPA / play+0.082
- 42.1%Success rate46.6%
- -0.022EPA / dropback+0.183
- -0.123EPA / rush-0.089
- 9.0%Explosive rate10.3%
- -0.05CPOE-0.40
- 34.7%Third-down rate42.6%
- 65.7%Red-zone TD rate63.0%
- 1.73Points / drive2.32
- 2.1%Turnover rate2.1%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
All square 7–7 since 1999
Meetings average 50 points. LA are 8-6 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Lions
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jared Goff | 22/36 | 268 | 1 | 2 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jamaal Williams | 12 | 57 | 4.8 | 0 |
| D'Andre Swift | 13 | 48 | 3.7 | 0 |
| Jared Goff | 1 | 3 | 3.0 | 0 |
| Kalif Raymond | 1 | 1 | 1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalif Raymond | 6 | 8 | 115 | 0 |
| D'Andre Swift | 8 | 10 | 96 | 1 |
| T.J. Hockenson | 6 | 9 | 48 | 0 |
| Darren Fells | 1 | 1 | 6 | 0 |
| KhaDarel Hodge | 1 | 1 | 3 | 0 |
| Geronimo Allison | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
Rams
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matthew Stafford | 28/41 | 334 | 3 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Darrell Henderson | 15 | 45 | 3.0 | 0 |
| Sony Michel | 2 | 4 | 2.0 | 0 |
| Matthew Stafford | 2 | -2 | -1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cooper Kupp | 10 | 13 | 156 | 2 |
| Robert Woods | 6 | 6 | 70 | 0 |
| Tyler Higbee | 5 | 8 | 46 | 0 |
| Van Jefferson | 4 | 7 | 43 | 1 |
| Darrell Henderson | 3 | 6 | 19 | 0 |
| DeSean Jackson | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Rams; negative favour Lions.
Half-point at risk
2.27%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
61.5%
Expected total
45.2est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+2.98
- Home-field advantage+1.71
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+4.68