Closing spread
LA -10.5
Total
54
Model margin
-0.3est.
DET perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Lions
- Rams
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.149EPA / play-0.022
- 50.8%Success rate41.5%
- +0.203EPA / dropback+0.027
- +0.065EPA / rush-0.106
- 12.1%Explosive rate7.7%
- +1.24CPOE-2.79
- 45.0%Third-down rate36.1%
- 57.8%Red-zone TD rate57.3%
- 2.63Points / drive1.75
- 1.7%Turnover rate1.7%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
All square 7–7 since 1999
Meetings average 50 points. DET are 6-8 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Rams
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jared Goff | 17/33 | 207 | 1 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Todd Gurley | 23 | 132 | 5.7 | 2 |
| Robert Woods | 2 | 11 | 5.5 | 0 |
| Malcolm Brown | 2 | 8 | 4.0 | 0 |
| Jared Goff | 2 | -2 | -1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Robert Woods | 5 | 8 | 67 | 1 |
| Brandin Cooks | 4 | 6 | 62 | 0 |
| Todd Gurley | 3 | 5 | 33 | 0 |
| Tyler Higbee | 2 | 4 | 19 | 0 |
| Josh Reynolds | 2 | 5 | 19 | 0 |
| Gerald Everett | 1 | 3 | 7 | 0 |
| Pharoh Cooper | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Lions
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matthew Stafford | 20/33 | 245 | 1 | 1 |
| Bruce Ellington | 0/1 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| LeGarrette Blount | 16 | 61 | 3.8 | 0 |
| Theo Riddick | 8 | 32 | 4.0 | 0 |
| Zach Zenner | 1 | 7 | 7.0 | 0 |
| Matthew Stafford | 1 | 2 | 2.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Levine Toilolo | 4 | 6 | 90 | 0 |
| Kenny Golladay | 3 | 8 | 50 | 0 |
| Bruce Ellington | 7 | 10 | 35 | 0 |
| Theo Riddick | 3 | 4 | 26 | 0 |
| T.J. Jones | 1 | 1 | 25 | 0 |
| Luke Willson | 1 | 2 | 8 | 0 |
| LeGarrette Blount | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Lions; negative favour Rams.
Half-point at risk
2.75%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
48.1%
Expected total
43.5est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-1.85
- Home-field advantage+1.74
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential-0.24
- Expected margin-0.35