2018 · Week 13

Final

Rams

Los Angeles

QB Jared Goff

30·16

Lions

Detroit

QB Matthew Stafford

Ford Field · dome · fieldturf

Closing spread

LA -10.5

Total

54

Model margin

-0.3est.

DET perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Rams

Lions

Win probability

  • Lions
  • Rams

How each play moved the game.

Lions winsRams wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Ramsedge mapLions
  • +0.149EPA / play-0.022
  • 50.8%Success rate41.5%
  • +0.203EPA / dropback+0.027
  • +0.065EPA / rush-0.106
  • 12.1%Explosive rate7.7%
  • +1.24CPOE-2.79
  • 45.0%Third-down rate36.1%
  • 57.8%Red-zone TD rate57.3%
  • 2.63Points / drive1.75
  • 1.7%Turnover rate1.7%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

All square 7–7 since 1999

Meetings average 50 points. DET are 6-8 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2025 · W15DET @ LA34–41RAMS
2024 · W1LA @ DET20–26DET
2023 · playoffsLA @ DET23–24DET
2021 · W7DET @ LA19–28RAMS
2016 · W6LA @ DET28–31DET
2015 · W14DET @ STL14–21RAMS
2012 · W1STL @ DET23–27DET
2010 · W5STL @ DET6–44DET

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultLA–DET
LAQ1 15:00724Punt0–0
DETQ1 11:56729Punt0–0
LAQ1 7:57974Field goal3–0
DETQ1 3:17965Field goal3–3
LAQ2 12:24411Turnover3–3
DETQ2 10:0732Punt3–3
LAQ2 8:371571Touchdown10–3
DETQ2 2:283-7Punt10–3
LAQ2 1:33539Field goal13–3
DETQ2 0:43419Punt13–3
LAQ2 0:1000End of half13–3
DETQ3 15:0033Punt13–3
LAQ3 14:03221Turnover13–3
DETQ3 13:211151Field goal13–6
LAQ3 7:5613Field goal13–6
LAQ3 7:1515Field goal13–6
LAQ3 6:3610Field goal16–6
DETQ3 5:46213Touchdown16–6
DETQ3 4:33462Touchdown16–13
LAQ3 3:021129Punt16–13
DETQ4 12:44426Punt16–13
LAQ4 10:1230Punt16–13
DETQ4 9:483-7Turnover16–13
LAQ4 8:13324Touchdown23–13
DETQ4 6:53910Field goal23–16
LAQ4 2:54545Touchdown30–16
DETQ4 1:541044Turnover30–16
LAQ4 0:1200End of half30–16

Box score

Individual performances

Rams

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Jared Goff17/3320711

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Todd Gurley231325.72
Robert Woods2115.50
Malcolm Brown284.00
Jared Goff2-2-1.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Robert Woods58671
Brandin Cooks46620
Todd Gurley35330
Tyler Higbee24190
Josh Reynolds25190
Gerald Everett1370
Pharoh Cooper0100

Lions

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Matthew Stafford20/3324511
Bruce Ellington0/1000

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
LeGarrette Blount16613.80
Theo Riddick8324.00
Zach Zenner177.00
Matthew Stafford122.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Levine Toilolo46900
Kenny Golladay38500
Bruce Ellington710350
Theo Riddick34260
T.J. Jones11250
Luke Willson1280
LeGarrette Blount0100

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line -10.52.7%4.5%3.0%7.4%7.3%

Positive margins favour Lions; negative favour Rams.

Half-point at risk

2.75%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

48.1%

Expected total

43.5est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-1.85
  • Home-field advantage+1.74
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential-0.24
  • Expected margin-0.35