Closing spread
DET -3.5
Total
52.5
Model margin
+1.7est.
DET perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Lions
- Rams
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.042EPA / play+0.058
- 44.9%Success rate45.9%
- +0.085EPA / dropback+0.110
- -0.022EPA / rush-0.014
- 9.4%Explosive rate11.2%
- -3.54CPOE+1.34
- 41.4%Third-down rate42.4%
- 64.2%Red-zone TD rate65.2%
- 2.13Points / drive2.29
- 1.5%Turnover rate1.9%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
All square 7–7 since 1999
Meetings average 50 points. DET are 6-8 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Rams
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matthew Stafford | 25/36 | 367 | 2 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kyren Williams | 13 | 61 | 4.7 | 0 |
| Ronnie Rivers | 3 | 9 | 3.0 | 0 |
| Puka Nacua | 1 | -2 | -2.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Puka Nacua | 9 | 10 | 181 | 1 |
| Demarcus Robinson | 3 | 6 | 44 | 0 |
| Tutu Atwell | 1 | 1 | 38 | 1 |
| Ronnie Rivers | 3 | 3 | 35 | 0 |
| Davis Allen | 2 | 2 | 28 | 0 |
| Cooper Kupp | 5 | 9 | 27 | 0 |
| Kyren Williams | 1 | 1 | 9 | 0 |
| Ben Skowronek | 1 | 1 | 5 | 0 |
| Tyler Higbee | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Lions
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jared Goff | 22/27 | 277 | 1 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| David Montgomery | 14 | 57 | 4.1 | 1 |
| Jahmyr Gibbs | 8 | 25 | 3.1 | 1 |
| Jared Goff | 3 | -3 | -1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Amon-Ra St. Brown | 7 | 9 | 110 | 0 |
| Josh Reynolds | 5 | 7 | 80 | 0 |
| Jahmyr Gibbs | 4 | 4 | 43 | 0 |
| Jameson Williams | 2 | 2 | 19 | 0 |
| Sam LaPorta | 3 | 3 | 14 | 1 |
| David Montgomery | 1 | 1 | 11 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Lions; negative favour Rams.
Half-point at risk
2.52%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
53.7%
Expected total
46.4est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.02
- Home-field advantage+1.71
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+1.73