2023 · WC

Final

Rams

Los Angeles

QB Matthew Stafford

23·24

Lions

Detroit

QB Jared Goff

Ford Field · dome · fieldturf

Closing spread

DET -3.5

Total

52.5

Model margin

+1.7est.

DET perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Rams

Lions

Win probability

  • Lions
  • Rams

How each play moved the game.

Lions winsRams wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Ramsedge mapLions
  • +0.042EPA / play+0.058
  • 44.9%Success rate45.9%
  • +0.085EPA / dropback+0.110
  • -0.022EPA / rush-0.014
  • 9.4%Explosive rate11.2%
  • -3.54CPOE+1.34
  • 41.4%Third-down rate42.4%
  • 64.2%Red-zone TD rate65.2%
  • 2.13Points / drive2.29
  • 1.5%Turnover rate1.9%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

All square 7–7 since 1999

Meetings average 50 points. DET are 6-8 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2025 · W15DET @ LA34–41RAMS
2024 · W1LA @ DET20–26DET
2021 · W7DET @ LA19–28RAMS
2018 · W13LA @ DET30–16RAMS
2016 · W6LA @ DET28–31DET
2015 · W14DET @ STL14–21RAMS
2012 · W1STL @ DET23–27DET
2010 · W5STL @ DET6–44DET

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultLA–DET
DETQ1 15:001075Touchdown0–7
LAQ1 9:301154Field goal3–7
DETQ1 4:26670Touchdown3–14
LAQ1 1:31672Touchdown10–14
DETQ2 13:241169Touchdown10–21
LAQ2 7:12770Touchdown17–21
DETQ2 4:02734Punt17–21
LAQ2 0:59213End of half17–21
LAQ3 15:00413Punt17–21
DETQ3 13:17844Field goal17–24
LAQ3 8:41966Field goal20–24
DETQ3 2:33413Punt20–24
LAQ4 14:531279Field goal23–24
DETQ4 8:1036Punt23–24
LAQ4 7:18758Punt23–24
DETQ4 4:07426End of half23–24

Box score

Individual performances

Rams

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Matthew Stafford25/3636720

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Kyren Williams13614.70
Ronnie Rivers393.00
Puka Nacua1-2-2.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Puka Nacua9101811
Demarcus Robinson36440
Tutu Atwell11381
Ronnie Rivers33350
Davis Allen22280
Cooper Kupp59270
Kyren Williams1190
Ben Skowronek1150
Tyler Higbee0100

Lions

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Jared Goff22/2727710

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
David Montgomery14574.11
Jahmyr Gibbs8253.11
Jared Goff3-3-1.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Amon-Ra St. Brown791100
Josh Reynolds57800
Jahmyr Gibbs44430
Jameson Williams22190
Sam LaPorta33141
David Montgomery11110

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +3.54.1%2.8%7.1%7.5%3.1%4.6%2.9%

Positive margins favour Lions; negative favour Rams.

Half-point at risk

2.52%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

53.7%

Expected total

46.4est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.02
  • Home-field advantage+1.71
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+1.73