Closing spread
DET -2.5
Total
44
Model margin
+4.8est.
DET perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Lions
- Rams
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.203EPA / play+0.054
- 36.6%Success rate45.4%
- -0.222EPA / dropback+0.166
- -0.170EPA / rush-0.187
- 6.8%Explosive rate7.8%
- -6.92CPOE+0.07
- 32.2%Third-down rate42.7%
- 47.6%Red-zone TD rate53.3%
- 0.97Points / drive2.05
- 2.8%Turnover rate1.4%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
All square 7–7 since 1999
Meetings average 50 points. DET are 6-8 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Rams
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Case Keenum | 27/32 | 321 | 3 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Todd Gurley | 14 | 58 | 4.1 | 0 |
| Benny Cunningham | 2 | 9 | 4.5 | 0 |
| Case Keenum | 3 | 7 | 2.3 | 1 |
| Tavon Austin | 3 | 2 | 0.7 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kenny Britt | 7 | 8 | 136 | 2 |
| Brian Quick | 5 | 5 | 61 | 0 |
| Todd Gurley | 4 | 4 | 39 | 0 |
| Lance Kendricks | 5 | 8 | 34 | 1 |
| Tavon Austin | 3 | 4 | 24 | 0 |
| Benny Cunningham | 2 | 2 | 14 | 0 |
| Bradley Marquez | 1 | 1 | 13 | 0 |
Lions
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matthew Stafford | 23/31 | 270 | 4 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Zach Zenner | 14 | 58 | 4.1 | 0 |
| Matthew Stafford | 5 | 14 | 2.8 | 0 |
| Justin Forsett | 5 | 5 | 1.0 | 0 |
| Golden Tate | 1 | 3 | 3.0 | 0 |
| Marvin Jones | 1 | 3 | 3.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Golden Tate | 8 | 10 | 165 | 1 |
| Anquan Boldin | 8 | 9 | 60 | 1 |
| Zach Zenner | 2 | 2 | 19 | 0 |
| Andre Roberts | 2 | 2 | 13 | 1 |
| Marvin Jones | 2 | 6 | 10 | 1 |
| Clay Harbor | 1 | 1 | 3 | 0 |
| Justin Forsett | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Lions; negative favour Rams.
Half-point at risk
7.47%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
62.0%
Expected total
43.7est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+3.11
- Home-field advantage+1.74
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+4.85