2016 · Week 6

Final

Rams

Los Angeles

QB Case Keenum

28·31

Lions

Detroit

QB Matthew Stafford

Ford Field · dome · fieldturf

Closing spread

DET -2.5

Total

44

Model margin

+4.8est.

DET perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Rams

Lions

Win probability

  • Lions
  • Rams

How each play moved the game.

Lions winsRams wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Ramsedge mapLions
  • -0.203EPA / play+0.054
  • 36.6%Success rate45.4%
  • -0.222EPA / dropback+0.166
  • -0.170EPA / rush-0.187
  • 6.8%Explosive rate7.8%
  • -6.92CPOE+0.07
  • 32.2%Third-down rate42.7%
  • 47.6%Red-zone TD rate53.3%
  • 0.97Points / drive2.05
  • 2.8%Turnover rate1.4%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

All square 7–7 since 1999

Meetings average 50 points. DET are 6-8 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2025 · W15DET @ LA34–41RAMS
2024 · W1LA @ DET20–26DET
2023 · playoffsLA @ DET23–24DET
2021 · W7DET @ LA19–28RAMS
2018 · W13LA @ DET30–16RAMS
2015 · W14DET @ STL14–21RAMS
2012 · W1STL @ DET23–27DET
2010 · W5STL @ DET6–44DET

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultLA–DET
DETQ1 15:00875Touchdown0–7
LAQ1 10:441075Touchdown7–7
DETQ1 5:15613Punt7–7
LAQ1 1:521184Touchdown14–7
DETQ2 11:011480Touchdown14–14
LAQ2 3:071358Turnover on downs14–14
LAQ3 15:0036Punt14–14
DETQ3 12:07560Touchdown14–21
LAQ3 9:50675Touchdown21–21
DETQ3 6:3331Punt21–21
LAQ3 4:561080Touchdown28–21
DETQ4 14:091677Touchdown28–28
LAQ4 6:0235Punt28–28
DETQ4 5:06844Field goal28–31
LAQ4 1:2924Turnover28–31
DETQ4 1:0100End of half28–31

Box score

Individual performances

Rams

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Case Keenum27/3232131

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Todd Gurley14584.10
Benny Cunningham294.50
Case Keenum372.31
Tavon Austin320.70

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Kenny Britt781362
Brian Quick55610
Todd Gurley44390
Lance Kendricks58341
Tavon Austin34240
Benny Cunningham22140
Bradley Marquez11130

Lions

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Matthew Stafford23/3127040

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Zach Zenner14584.10
Matthew Stafford5142.80
Justin Forsett551.00
Golden Tate133.00
Marvin Jones133.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Golden Tate8101651
Anquan Boldin89601
Zach Zenner22190
Andre Roberts22131
Marvin Jones26101
Clay Harbor1130
Justin Forsett0100

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +2.53.5%6.5%7.5%3.2%4.9%3.2%3.0%

Positive margins favour Lions; negative favour Rams.

Half-point at risk

7.47%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

62.0%

Expected total

43.7est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+3.11
  • Home-field advantage+1.74
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+4.85