Closing spread
DET -9
Total
46
Model margin
+1.2est.
DET perspective
Push chance
1.1%est.
Win probability
- Lions
- Rams
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
The rivalry
All square 7–7 since 1999
Meetings average 50 points. DET are 6-8 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Lions
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matthew Stafford | 32/48 | 355 | 1 | 3 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kevin Smith | 13 | 62 | 4.8 | 1 |
| Titus Young | 1 | 11 | 11.0 | 0 |
| Nate Burleson | 1 | 6 | 6.0 | 0 |
| Keiland Williams | 1 | 2 | 2.0 | 0 |
| Stefan Logan | 1 | 1 | 1.0 | 0 |
| Joique Bell | 1 | 1 | 1.0 | 1 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Calvin Johnson | 6 | 7 | 111 | 0 |
| Brandon Pettigrew | 5 | 10 | 77 | 0 |
| Nate Burleson | 6 | 8 | 69 | 0 |
| Tony Scheffler | 5 | 8 | 30 | 0 |
| Kevin Smith | 4 | 6 | 29 | 1 |
| Will Heller | 2 | 2 | 19 | 0 |
| Titus Young | 1 | 3 | 14 | 0 |
| Keiland Williams | 1 | 1 | 4 | 0 |
| Matthew Stafford | 1 | 1 | 3 | 0 |
| Stefan Logan | 1 | 1 | -1 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Lions; negative favour Rams.
Half-point at risk
1.15%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
52.2%
Expected total
43.8est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-1.31
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+1.18
One or both ratings are carry-over priors — no games have been played this season yet, so treat this as a starting assumption rather than a read.