Closing spread
DET -9
Total
46
Model margin
+1.2est.
DET perspective
Push chance
1.1%est.
Availability
The injury report
The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.
Rams
- OutDarell ScottDTKnee· DNP
- OutMatt ConrathDTKnee· DNP
- OutMichael BrockersDTAnkle· DNP
Lions
- DoubtfulChris HoustonCBAnkle· DNP
- DoubtfulLouis DelmasSKnee· DNP
Win probability
- Lions
- Rams
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
The rivalry
All square 7–7 since 1999
Meetings average 50 points. DET are 6-8 ATS in the series.
Possession by possession
How it unfolded
Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.
| Ball | Start | Plays | Yards | Result | STL–DET |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DET | Q1 15:00 | 13 | 72 | Turnover | 0–0 |
| LA | Q1 7:46 | 10 | 61 | Field goal | 3–0 |
| DET | Q1 1:57 | 14 | 80 | Touchdown | 3–7 |
| LA | Q2 9:26 | 3 | -2 | Punt | 3–7 |
| DET | Q2 8:19 | 3 | 16 | Turnover | 3–7 |
| LA | Q2 7:05 | 7 | 33 | Field goal | 6–7 |
| DET | Q2 2:35 | 3 | 10 | Opp touchdown | 13–7 |
| DET | Q2 1:28 | 4 | 53 | Field goal | 13–10 |
| LA | Q2 0:20 | 0 | 0 | End of half | 13–10 |
| LA | Q3 15:00 | 3 | -5 | Punt | 13–10 |
| DET | Q3 12:23 | 4 | 10 | Field goal | 13–13 |
| LA | Q3 9:29 | 4 | 14 | Punt | 13–13 |
| DET | Q3 7:30 | 3 | 7 | Punt | 13–13 |
| LA | Q3 5:55 | 5 | 18 | Punt | 13–13 |
| DET | Q3 3:30 | 6 | 21 | Punt | 13–13 |
| LA | Q3 0:57 | 5 | 14 | Punt | 13–13 |
| DET | Q4 12:54 | 3 | 0 | Punt | 13–13 |
| LA | Q4 12:27 | 5 | 47 | Touchdown | 20–13 |
| DET | Q4 9:45 | 5 | 80 | Touchdown | 20–20 |
| LA | Q4 7:19 | 12 | 52 | Field goal | 23–20 |
| DET | Q4 1:55 | 8 | 80 | Touchdown | 23–27 |
| LA | Q4 0:10 | 2 | 19 | End of half | 23–27 |
Box score
Individual performances
Lions
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matthew Stafford | 32/48 | 355 | 1 | 3 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kevin Smith | 13 | 62 | 4.8 | 1 |
| Titus Young | 1 | 11 | 11.0 | 0 |
| Nate Burleson | 1 | 6 | 6.0 | 0 |
| Keiland Williams | 1 | 2 | 2.0 | 0 |
| Stefan Logan | 1 | 1 | 1.0 | 0 |
| Joique Bell | 1 | 1 | 1.0 | 1 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Calvin Johnson | 6 | 7 | 111 | 0 |
| Brandon Pettigrew | 5 | 10 | 77 | 0 |
| Nate Burleson | 6 | 8 | 69 | 0 |
| Tony Scheffler | 5 | 8 | 30 | 0 |
| Kevin Smith | 4 | 6 | 29 | 1 |
| Will Heller | 2 | 2 | 19 | 0 |
| Titus Young | 1 | 3 | 14 | 0 |
| Keiland Williams | 1 | 1 | 4 | 0 |
| Matthew Stafford | 1 | 1 | 3 | 0 |
| Stefan Logan | 1 | 1 | -1 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Lions; negative favour Rams.
Half-point at risk
1.15%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
52.2%
Expected total
43.8est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-1.31
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+1.18
One or both ratings are carry-over priors — no games have been played this season yet, so treat this as a starting assumption rather than a read.