Closing spread
LA -5.5
Total
54.5
Model margin
+3.6est.
LA perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Rams
- Lions
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.071EPA / play+0.149
- 45.0%Success rate52.2%
- +0.167EPA / dropback+0.235
- -0.071EPA / rush+0.021
- 10.1%Explosive rate11.3%
- +1.64CPOE+1.65
- 39.2%Third-down rate40.0%
- 66.0%Red-zone TD rate68.9%
- 2.54Points / drive2.67
- 1.4%Turnover rate1.4%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
All square 7–7 since 1999
Meetings average 50 points. LA are 8-6 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Lions
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jared Goff | 25/41 | 338 | 3 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jahmyr Gibbs | 13 | 38 | 2.9 | 0 |
| David Montgomery | 7 | 32 | 4.6 | 1 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Amon-Ra St. Brown | 13 | 18 | 164 | 2 |
| Jameson Williams | 7 | 10 | 134 | 1 |
| Kalif Raymond | 1 | 1 | 20 | 0 |
| Jahmyr Gibbs | 4 | 7 | 20 | 0 |
| David Montgomery | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Isaac TeSlaa | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Rams
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matthew Stafford | 24/38 | 368 | 2 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kyren Williams | 15 | 78 | 5.2 | 2 |
| Blake Corum | 11 | 71 | 6.5 | 1 |
| Puka Nacua | 2 | 8 | 4.0 | 0 |
| Matthew Stafford | 1 | 2 | 2.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Puka Nacua | 9 | 11 | 181 | 0 |
| Colby Parkinson | 5 | 7 | 75 | 2 |
| Davante Adams | 4 | 9 | 71 | 0 |
| Davis Allen | 3 | 4 | 16 | 0 |
| Kyren Williams | 1 | 1 | 10 | 0 |
| Tutu Atwell | 1 | 2 | 9 | 0 |
| Terrance Ferguson | 1 | 2 | 6 | 0 |
| Jordan Whittington | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Konata Mumpfield | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Rams; negative favour Lions.
Half-point at risk
3.15%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
58.7%
Expected total
45.8est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+2.15
- Home-field advantage+1.71
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential-0.24
- Expected margin+3.62