2025 · Week 15

Final

Lions

Detroit

QB Jared Goff

34·41

Rams

Los Angeles

QB Matthew Stafford

SoFi Stadium · dome · matrixturf

Closing spread

LA -5.5

Total

54.5

Model margin

+3.6est.

LA perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Lions

Rams

Win probability

  • Rams
  • Lions

How each play moved the game.

Rams winsLions wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Lionsedge mapRams
  • +0.071EPA / play+0.149
  • 45.0%Success rate52.2%
  • +0.167EPA / dropback+0.235
  • -0.071EPA / rush+0.021
  • 10.1%Explosive rate11.3%
  • +1.64CPOE+1.65
  • 39.2%Third-down rate40.0%
  • 66.0%Red-zone TD rate68.9%
  • 2.54Points / drive2.67
  • 1.4%Turnover rate1.4%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

All square 7–7 since 1999

Meetings average 50 points. LA are 8-6 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2024 · W1LA @ DET20–26DET
2023 · playoffsLA @ DET23–24DET
2021 · W7DET @ LA19–28RAMS
2018 · W13LA @ DET30–16RAMS
2016 · W6LA @ DET28–31DET
2015 · W14DET @ STL14–21RAMS
2012 · W1STL @ DET23–27DET
2010 · W5STL @ DET6–44DET

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultDET–LA
DETQ1 15:00750Missed field goal0–0
LAQ1 11:12647Turnover6–0
DETQ1 8:12117Touchdown7–0
LAQ1 8:071467Touchdown7–7
DETQ1 2:441159Field goal10–7
LAQ2 12:04869Touchdown10–14
DETQ2 8:31465Touchdown17–14
LAQ2 6:12517Punt17–14
DETQ2 3:09980Touchdown24–14
LAQ2 0:30447Field goal24–17
LAQ3 15:001041Field goal24–20
DETQ3 9:07415Punt24–20
LAQ3 6:39988Touchdown24–27
DETQ3 2:263-12Punt24–27
LAQ3 1:20250Touchdown24–34
DETQ3 0:2833Punt24–34
LAQ4 14:0037Punt24–34
DETQ4 12:26836Field goal27–34
LAQ4 7:54668Touchdown27–41
DETQ4 4:491362Touchdown34–41
LAQ4 2:42518Punt34–41
DETQ4 0:13121End of half34–41

Box score

Individual performances

Lions

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Jared Goff25/4133830

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Jahmyr Gibbs13382.90
David Montgomery7324.61

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Amon-Ra St. Brown13181642
Jameson Williams7101341
Kalif Raymond11200
Jahmyr Gibbs47200
David Montgomery0100
Isaac TeSlaa0100

Rams

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Matthew Stafford24/3836821

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Kyren Williams15785.22
Blake Corum11716.51
Puka Nacua284.00
Matthew Stafford122.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Puka Nacua9111810
Colby Parkinson57752
Davante Adams49710
Davis Allen34160
Kyren Williams11100
Tutu Atwell1290
Terrance Ferguson1260
Jordan Whittington0100
Konata Mumpfield0100

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +5.53.8%6.8%7.5%3.2%4.8%3.1%2.8%

Positive margins favour Rams; negative favour Lions.

Half-point at risk

3.15%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

58.7%

Expected total

45.8est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+2.15
  • Home-field advantage+1.71
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential-0.24
  • Expected margin+3.62