2024 · Week 1

Final / OT

Rams

Los Angeles

QB Matthew Stafford

20·26

Lions

Detroit

QB Jared Goff

Ford Field · dome · fieldturf

Closing spread

DET -5

Total

54

Model margin

+3.8est.

DET perspective

Push chance

2.0%est.

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Rams

Lions

Win probability

  • Lions
  • Rams

How each play moved the game.

Lions winsRams wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Ramsedge mapLions
  • +0.038EPA / play+0.156
  • 47.5%Success rate49.6%
  • +0.112EPA / dropback+0.267
  • -0.069EPA / rush+0.021
  • 7.9%Explosive rate11.5%
  • -0.97CPOE+5.81
  • 37.0%Third-down rate48.1%
  • 49.9%Red-zone TD rate74.9%
  • 2.09Points / drive3.02
  • 1.3%Turnover rate1.3%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

All square 7–7 since 1999

Meetings average 50 points. DET are 6-8 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2025 · W15DET @ LA34–41RAMS
2023 · playoffsLA @ DET23–24DET
2021 · W7DET @ LA19–28RAMS
2018 · W13LA @ DET30–16RAMS
2016 · W6LA @ DET28–31DET
2015 · W14DET @ STL14–21RAMS
2012 · W1STL @ DET23–27DET
2010 · W5STL @ DET6–44DET

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultLA–DET
LAQ1 15:003-3Punt0–0
DETQ1 13:263-3Punt0–0
LAQ1 11:201272Field goal3–0
DETQ1 4:501458Field goal3–3
LAQ2 12:171255Turnover on downs3–3
DETQ2 6:31977Touchdown3–10
LAQ2 1:571042Turnover3–10
DETQ2 0:151-8End of half3–10
DETQ3 15:0036Punt3–10
LAQ3 13:3530Punt3–10
DETQ3 12:01359Touchdown3–17
LAQ3 10:291261Touchdown10–17
DETQ3 3:3339Punt10–17
LAQ3 1:31869Field goal13–17
DETQ4 12:32650Turnover13–17
LAQ4 9:091080Touchdown20–17
DETQ4 4:3035Punt20–17
LAQ4 4:10616Punt20–17
DETQ4 2:11840Field goal20–20
LAQ4 0:172-5End of half20–20
DETOT870Touchdown20–26

Box score

Individual performances

Rams

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Matthew Stafford34/4931711

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Kyren Williams18502.81
Ronnie Rivers2168.00
Cooper Kupp2105.00
Puka Nacua177.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Cooper Kupp14211101
Tyler Johnson57790
Colby Parkinson45470
Demarcus Robinson47420
Puka Nacua44350
Kyren Williams3340
Davis Allen0100

Lions

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Jared Goff18/2821711

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
David Montgomery17915.41
Jahmyr Gibbs11403.61
Jameson Williams11313.00
Kalif Raymond11212.00
Jared Goff177.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Jameson Williams591211
Sam LaPorta45450
Jahmyr Gibbs46340
Amon-Ra St. Brown36130
David Montgomery1120
Brock Wright1120

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +53.7%6.7%7.5%3.2%4.9%3.1%2.8%

Positive margins favour Lions; negative favour Rams.

Half-point at risk

1.97%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

59.3%

Expected total

45.5est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+2.12
  • Home-field advantage+1.71
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+3.82