Closing spread
DET -5
Total
54
Model margin
+3.8est.
DET perspective
Push chance
2.0%est.
Win probability
- Lions
- Rams
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.038EPA / play+0.156
- 47.5%Success rate49.6%
- +0.112EPA / dropback+0.267
- -0.069EPA / rush+0.021
- 7.9%Explosive rate11.5%
- -0.97CPOE+5.81
- 37.0%Third-down rate48.1%
- 49.9%Red-zone TD rate74.9%
- 2.09Points / drive3.02
- 1.3%Turnover rate1.3%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
All square 7–7 since 1999
Meetings average 50 points. DET are 6-8 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Rams
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matthew Stafford | 34/49 | 317 | 1 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kyren Williams | 18 | 50 | 2.8 | 1 |
| Ronnie Rivers | 2 | 16 | 8.0 | 0 |
| Cooper Kupp | 2 | 10 | 5.0 | 0 |
| Puka Nacua | 1 | 7 | 7.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cooper Kupp | 14 | 21 | 110 | 1 |
| Tyler Johnson | 5 | 7 | 79 | 0 |
| Colby Parkinson | 4 | 5 | 47 | 0 |
| Demarcus Robinson | 4 | 7 | 42 | 0 |
| Puka Nacua | 4 | 4 | 35 | 0 |
| Kyren Williams | 3 | 3 | 4 | 0 |
| Davis Allen | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Lions
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jared Goff | 18/28 | 217 | 1 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| David Montgomery | 17 | 91 | 5.4 | 1 |
| Jahmyr Gibbs | 11 | 40 | 3.6 | 1 |
| Jameson Williams | 1 | 13 | 13.0 | 0 |
| Kalif Raymond | 1 | 12 | 12.0 | 0 |
| Jared Goff | 1 | 7 | 7.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jameson Williams | 5 | 9 | 121 | 1 |
| Sam LaPorta | 4 | 5 | 45 | 0 |
| Jahmyr Gibbs | 4 | 6 | 34 | 0 |
| Amon-Ra St. Brown | 3 | 6 | 13 | 0 |
| David Montgomery | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 |
| Brock Wright | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Lions; negative favour Rams.
Half-point at risk
1.97%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
59.3%
Expected total
45.5est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+2.12
- Home-field advantage+1.71
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+3.82