Closing spread
DET -3
Total
41.5
Model margin
+1.8est.
STL perspective
Push chance
7.1%est.
the line sits on a key number
Availability
The injury report
The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.
Lions
- QuestionableCalvin JohnsonWRAnkle· DNP
- QuestionableCaraun ReidDTAnkle· Limited
- QuestionableEzekiel AnsahDEHamstring· Limited
- QuestionableGlover QuinSAnkle· DNP
- QuestionableLance MooreWRAnkle· Limited
- QuestionableMichael OlaTKnee· Limited
- QuestionableTravis LewisLBAnkle· Full
- QuestionableTravis SwansonCAnkle· Full
Rams
- OutAndrew DonnalTKnee· DNP
- OutRobert QuinnDEBack· DNP
- OutT.J. McDonaldSShoulder· DNP
- DoubtfulJanoris JenkinsCBConcussion· DNP
- ProbableCase KeenumQBConcussion· Full
- ProbableGreg ZuerleinKright Hip· Full
- ProbableJohnny HekkerPNot Injury Related· Full
- ProbableLance KendricksTEConcussion· Full
- ProbableTrumaine JohnsonCBThigh· Full
- ProbableWes WelkerWRCalf· Full
- ProbableWilliam HayesDEThigh· Full
- ProbableZach HockerKright Thigh· Full
Win probability
- Rams
- Lions
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
The rivalry
All square 7–7 since 1999
Meetings average 50 points. STL are 8-6 ATS in the series.
Possession by possession
How it unfolded
Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.
| Ball | Start | Plays | Yards | Result | DET–STL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| LA | Q1 15:00 | 5 | 19 | Punt | 0–0 |
| DET | Q1 12:12 | 3 | -1 | Punt | 0–0 |
| LA | Q1 10:15 | 6 | 20 | Punt | 0–0 |
| DET | Q1 7:22 | 6 | 21 | Punt | 0–0 |
| LA | Q1 3:03 | 9 | 31 | Punt | 0–0 |
| DET | Q2 13:03 | 9 | 47 | Punt | 0–0 |
| LA | Q2 8:36 | 3 | 1 | Punt | 0–0 |
| DET | Q2 7:07 | 4 | 30 | Opp touchdown | 0–7 |
| DET | Q2 4:55 | 8 | 36 | Punt | 0–7 |
| LA | Q2 1:16 | 7 | 32 | Turnover | 0–7 |
| DET | Q2 0:13 | 1 | 0 | End of half | 0–7 |
| DET | Q3 15:00 | 3 | 5 | Punt | 0–7 |
| LA | Q3 14:00 | 4 | 8 | Punt | 0–7 |
| DET | Q3 11:56 | 7 | 65 | Touchdown | 7–7 |
| LA | Q3 7:35 | 6 | 80 | Touchdown | 7–14 |
| DET | Q3 3:57 | 6 | 19 | Punt | 7–14 |
| LA | Q3 0:47 | 7 | 91 | Touchdown | 7–21 |
| DET | Q4 12:14 | 5 | 17 | Punt | 7–21 |
| LA | Q4 8:20 | 3 | 9 | Punt | 7–21 |
| DET | Q4 6:18 | 14 | 86 | Touchdown | 14–21 |
| LA | Q4 2:05 | 0 | 0 | Turnover on downs | 14–21 |
| DET | Q4 2:03 | 4 | 7 | Turnover on downs | 14–21 |
| LA | Q4 1:40 | 4 | 27 | End of half | 14–21 |
Box score
Individual performances
Lions
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matthew Stafford | 30/46 | 245 | 2 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Joique Bell | 7 | 50 | 7.1 | 0 |
| Ameer Abdullah | 7 | 23 | 3.3 | 0 |
| Theo Riddick | 3 | 18 | 6.0 | 0 |
| Golden Tate | 1 | 15 | 15.0 | 0 |
| Matthew Stafford | 2 | 5 | 2.5 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Golden Tate | 9 | 10 | 60 | 2 |
| Theo Riddick | 7 | 11 | 44 | 0 |
| T.J. Jones | 4 | 8 | 33 | 0 |
| Eric Ebron | 3 | 5 | 27 | 0 |
| Joique Bell | 2 | 2 | 25 | 0 |
| Ameer Abdullah | 2 | 2 | 21 | 0 |
| Calvin Johnson | 1 | 5 | 16 | 0 |
| Brandon Pettigrew | 1 | 1 | 7 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Rams; negative favour Lions.
Half-point at risk
7.10%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
54.0%
Expected total
44.8est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.43
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential-0.24
- Expected margin+1.82
One or both ratings are carry-over priors — no games have been played this season yet, so treat this as a starting assumption rather than a read.