Closing spread
DET -3
Total
41.5
Model margin
+1.8est.
STL perspective
Push chance
7.1%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Rams
- Lions
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
The rivalry
All square 7–7 since 1999
Meetings average 50 points. STL are 8-6 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Lions
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matthew Stafford | 30/46 | 245 | 2 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Joique Bell | 7 | 50 | 7.1 | 0 |
| Ameer Abdullah | 7 | 23 | 3.3 | 0 |
| Theo Riddick | 3 | 18 | 6.0 | 0 |
| Golden Tate | 1 | 15 | 15.0 | 0 |
| Matthew Stafford | 2 | 5 | 2.5 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Golden Tate | 9 | 10 | 60 | 2 |
| Theo Riddick | 7 | 11 | 44 | 0 |
| T.J. Jones | 4 | 8 | 33 | 0 |
| Eric Ebron | 3 | 5 | 27 | 0 |
| Joique Bell | 2 | 2 | 25 | 0 |
| Ameer Abdullah | 2 | 2 | 21 | 0 |
| Calvin Johnson | 1 | 5 | 16 | 0 |
| Brandon Pettigrew | 1 | 1 | 7 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Rams; negative favour Lions.
Half-point at risk
7.10%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
54.0%
Expected total
44.8est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.43
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential-0.24
- Expected margin+1.82
One or both ratings are carry-over priors — no games have been played this season yet, so treat this as a starting assumption rather than a read.