Closing spread
BAL -3.5
Total
33.5
Model margin
+3.2est.
BAL perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Ravens
- Titans
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.011EPA / play-0.088
- 39.7%Success rate39.6%
- +0.112EPA / dropback-0.029
- -0.193EPA / rush-0.166
- 8.0%Explosive rate8.5%
- 42.1%Third-down rate36.2%
- 56.2%Red-zone TD rate45.6%
- 1.49Points / drive1.28
- 2.4%Turnover rate3.0%
- +0.045EPA / play allowed-0.148
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
BAL lead 12–9 since 1999
BAL have won 2 straight. Meetings average 35 points. BAL are 12-8-1 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Titans
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Steve McNair | 17/32 | 154 | 0 | 1 |
| Mike Green | 0/1 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Eddie George | 13 | 26 | 2.0 | 0 |
| Steve McNair | 3 | 12 | 4.0 | 0 |
| Mike Green | 1 | 9 | 9.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Erron Kinney | 7 | 9 | 75 | 0 |
| Frank Wycheck | 2 | 2 | 36 | 0 |
| Eddie George | 5 | 6 | 25 | 0 |
| Kevin Dyson | 1 | 5 | 7 | 0 |
| Mike Green | 1 | 1 | 7 | 0 |
| Shad Meier | 1 | 1 | 4 | 0 |
| Derrick Mason | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
| Chris Sanders | 0 | 6 | 0 | 0 |
Ravens
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elvis Grbac | 15/31 | 259 | 1 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Terry Allen | 22 | 108 | 4.9 | 1 |
| Jason Brookins | 15 | 68 | 4.5 | 1 |
| Obafemi Ayanbadejo | 2 | 17 | 8.5 | 0 |
| Travis Taylor | 1 | 14 | 14.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Qadry Ismail | 3 | 5 | 93 | 1 |
| Travis Taylor | 5 | 10 | 80 | 0 |
| Shannon Sharpe | 3 | 6 | 57 | 0 |
| Terry Allen | 2 | 2 | 12 | 0 |
| Moe Williams | 1 | 2 | 10 | 0 |
| Pat Johnson | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Brandon Stokley | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Ravens; negative favour Titans.
Half-point at risk
2.55%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
57.5%
Expected total
42.6est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+1.16
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential-0.56
- Expected margin+3.16