2001 · Week 4 · Division

Final

Titans

Tennessee

QB Steve McNair

7·26

Ravens

Baltimore

QB Elvis Grbac

PSINet Stadium · outdoors · grass · 55°F · wind 11mph

Closing spread

BAL -3.5

Total

33.5

Model margin

+3.2est.

BAL perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Win probability

  • Ravens
  • Titans

How each play moved the game.

Ravens winsTitans wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Titansedge mapRavens
  • -0.011EPA / play-0.088
  • 39.7%Success rate39.6%
  • +0.112EPA / dropback-0.029
  • -0.193EPA / rush-0.166
  • 8.0%Explosive rate8.5%
  • 42.1%Third-down rate36.2%
  • 56.2%Red-zone TD rate45.6%
  • 1.49Points / drive1.28
  • 2.4%Turnover rate3.0%
  • +0.045EPA / play allowed-0.148

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

BAL lead 13–9 since 1999

BAL have won 3 straight. Meetings average 35.3 points. BAL are 12-9-1 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2026 · W4TEN @ BAL18–24BAL
2023 · W6BAL @ TEN24–16BAL
2020 · playoffsBAL @ TEN20–13BAL
2020 · W11TEN @ BAL30–24TEN
2019 · playoffsTEN @ BAL28–12TEN
2018 · W6BAL @ TEN21–0BAL
2017 · W9BAL @ TEN20–23TEN
2014 · W10TEN @ BAL7–21BAL

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultTEN–BAL
BALQ1 15:00738Touchdown0–7
TENQ1 12:2539Punt0–7
BALQ1 10:11743Punt0–7
TENQ1 5:5643Punt0–7
BALQ1 3:17615Punt0–7
TENQ1 0:2537Punt0–7
BALQ2 14:4238Punt0–7
TENQ2 12:54522Punt0–7
BALQ2 10:23277Touchdown0–14
TENQ2 10:053-9Punt0–14
BALQ2 8:08834Field goal0–17
TENQ2 5:0130Punt0–17
BALQ2 2:4439Punt0–17
TENQ2 1:47965Missed field goal0–17
TENQ3 15:00522Punt0–17
BALQ3 11:36941Punt0–17
TENQ3 7:3739Punt0–17
BALQ3 5:55750Field goal0–20
TENQ3 3:0143Punt0–20
BALQ3 1:1630Opp touchdown7–20
TENQ3 0:4900Opp touchdown7–20
BALQ3 0:4900Punt7–20
TENQ3 0:43411Punt7–20
BALQ4 14:4639Punt7–20
TENQ4 13:05423Turnover7–20
BALQ4 12:011087Touchdown7–26
TENQ4 6:49520Turnover7–26
BALQ4 4:54849End of half7–26

Box score

Individual performances

Titans

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Steve McNair17/3215401
Mike Green0/1001

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Eddie George13262.00
Steve McNair3124.00
Mike Green199.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Erron Kinney79750
Frank Wycheck22360
Eddie George56250
Kevin Dyson1570
Mike Green1170
Shad Meier1140
Derrick Mason0200
Chris Sanders0600

Ravens

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Elvis Grbac15/3125910

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Terry Allen221084.91
Jason Brookins15684.51
Obafemi Ayanbadejo2178.50
Travis Taylor11414.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Qadry Ismail35931
Travis Taylor510800
Shannon Sharpe36570
Terry Allen22120
Moe Williams12100
Pat Johnson0100
Brandon Stokley0200

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +3.53.9%6.9%7.5%3.1%4.8%3.1%2.7%

Positive margins favour Ravens; negative favour Titans.

Half-point at risk

2.55%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

57.5%

Expected total

42.6est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+1.16
  • Home-field advantage+2.56
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential-0.56
  • Expected margin+3.16