2001 · Week 4 · Division
Final
Giants Stadium · outdoors · grass · 55°F · wind 16mph
Closing spread
NYG -14
Total
36
Model margin
+1.7est.
NYG perspective
Push chance
2.5%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Giants
- Commanders
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.103EPA / play-0.048
- 38.9%Success rate40.3%
- -0.101EPA / dropback-0.007
- -0.105EPA / rush-0.113
- 8.6%Explosive rate9.8%
- 34.9%Third-down rate35.2%
- 43.9%Red-zone TD rate60.6%
- 1.18Points / drive1.21
- 2.3%Turnover rate2.4%
- -0.069EPA / play allowed-0.053
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
NYG lead 32–21–1 since 1999
WAS have won 4 straight. Meetings average 39.8 points. NYG are 28-24-2 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Commanders
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tony Banks | 13/31 | 151 | 0 | 2 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Stephen Davis | 12 | 39 | 3.3 | 0 |
| Michael Westbrook | 1 | 8 | 8.0 | 0 |
| Tony Banks | 2 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rod Gardner | 2 | 7 | 68 | 0 |
| Stephen Alexander | 5 | 9 | 45 | 0 |
| Michael Westbrook | 4 | 6 | 34 | 0 |
| Stephen Davis | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Kevin Lockett | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Walter Rasby | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 |
Giants
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kerry Collins | 15/29 | 177 | 1 | 2 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Damon Washington | 25 | 90 | 3.6 | 0 |
| Ron Dayne | 16 | 39 | 2.4 | 0 |
| Amani Toomer | 1 | 9 | 9.0 | 0 |
| Greg Comella | 2 | 6 | 3.0 | 0 |
| Kerry Collins | 2 | -2 | -1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Amani Toomer | 7 | 14 | 97 | 0 |
| Greg Comella | 3 | 5 | 30 | 0 |
| Ike Hilliard | 2 | 4 | 21 | 0 |
| Damon Washington | 1 | 1 | 16 | 0 |
| Joe Jurevicius | 1 | 3 | 12 | 0 |
| Dan Campbell | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
| Howard Cross | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Giants; negative favour Commanders.
Half-point at risk
2.52%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
53.6%
Expected total
43.5est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.89
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+1.68