2001 · Week 4 · Division

Final

Commanders

Washington

QB Tony Banks

9·23

Giants

New York

QB Kerry Collins

Giants Stadium · outdoors · grass · 55°F · wind 16mph

Closing spread

NYG -14

Total

36

Model margin

+1.7est.

NYG perspective

Push chance

2.5%est.

the line sits on a key number

Win probability

  • Giants
  • Commanders

How each play moved the game.

Giants winsCommanders wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Commandersedge mapGiants
  • -0.103EPA / play-0.048
  • 38.9%Success rate40.3%
  • -0.101EPA / dropback-0.007
  • -0.105EPA / rush-0.113
  • 8.6%Explosive rate9.8%
  • 34.9%Third-down rate35.2%
  • 43.9%Red-zone TD rate60.6%
  • 1.18Points / drive1.21
  • 2.3%Turnover rate2.4%
  • -0.069EPA / play allowed-0.053

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

NYG lead 32–21–2 since 1999

Meetings average 40.1 points. NYG are 29-24-2 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2026 · W5NYG @ WAS27–27Tie
2025 · W15WAS @ NYG29–21WAS
2025 · W1NYG @ WAS6–21WAS
2024 · W9WAS @ NYG27–22WAS
2024 · W2NYG @ WAS18–21WAS
2023 · W11NYG @ WAS31–19NYG
2023 · W7WAS @ NYG7–14NYG
2022 · W15NYG @ WAS20–12NYG

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultWAS–NYG
WASQ1 15:0032Punt0–0
NYGQ1 13:1539Punt0–0
WASQ1 11:44310Punt0–0
NYGQ1 10:28729Field goal0–3
WASQ1 6:413-3Punt0–3
WASQ1 4:5834Field goal3–3
NYGQ1 3:2830Punt3–3
NYGQ1 2:4133Punt3–3
WASQ1 1:113-6Turnover3–3
NYGQ1 0:1236Field goal3–6
WASQ2 14:09613Field goal6–6
NYGQ2 11:251252Turnover6–6
WASQ2 5:00528Turnover6–6
NYGQ2 2:21843Field goal6–9
WASQ2 0:4015End of half6–9
NYGQ3 15:0010Turnover6–9
WASQ3 14:4330Punt6–9
NYGQ3 13:481450Turnover on downs6–9
WASQ3 6:08740Field goal9–9
NYGQ3 3:291071Touchdown9–16
WASQ4 12:59452Turnover9–16
NYGQ4 11:281150Turnover9–16
WASQ4 4:4930Punt9–16
NYGQ4 3:423-2Punt9–22
WASQ4 3:0710Opp touchdown9–23
NYGQ4 2:5700Opp touchdown9–23
WASQ4 2:571036Turnover on downs9–23
NYGQ4 1:062-2End of half9–23

Box score

Individual performances

Commanders

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Tony Banks13/3115102

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Stephen Davis12393.30
Michael Westbrook188.00
Tony Banks200.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Rod Gardner27680
Stephen Alexander59450
Michael Westbrook46340
Stephen Davis1100
Kevin Lockett0100
Walter Rasby0300

Giants

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Kerry Collins15/2917712

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Damon Washington25903.60
Ron Dayne16392.40
Amani Toomer199.00
Greg Comella263.00
Kerry Collins2-2-1.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Amani Toomer714970
Greg Comella35300
Ike Hilliard24210
Damon Washington11160
Joe Jurevicius13120
Dan Campbell1111
Howard Cross0100

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +147.5%3.1%4.6%2.9%

Positive margins favour Giants; negative favour Commanders.

Half-point at risk

2.52%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

53.6%

Expected total

43.5est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.89
  • Home-field advantage+2.56
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+1.68