2025 · Week 15 · Division
Final
MetLife Stadium · outdoors · fieldturf · 27°F · wind 13mph
Closing spread
NYG -2.5
Total
46.5
Model margin
+3.9est.
NYG perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Giants
- Commanders
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.035EPA / play+0.043
- 46.4%Success rate42.9%
- +0.084EPA / dropback+0.099
- -0.039EPA / rush-0.040
- 8.6%Explosive rate8.6%
- +0.67CPOE-1.30
- 37.2%Third-down rate39.6%
- 72.8%Red-zone TD rate56.3%
- 2.03Points / drive2.06
- 2.0%Turnover rate1.4%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
NYG lead 32–21–1 since 1999
WAS have won 4 straight. Meetings average 39.8 points. NYG are 28-24-2 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Commanders
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Marcus Mariota | 10/19 | 211 | 1 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jacory Croskey-Merritt | 18 | 96 | 5.3 | 1 |
| Marcus Mariota | 10 | 43 | 4.3 | 0 |
| Jeremy McNichols | 9 | 6 | 0.7 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Terry McLaurin | 3 | 4 | 69 | 1 |
| Deebo Samuel Sr. | 3 | 5 | 43 | 0 |
| Ben Sinnott | 1 | 1 | 36 | 0 |
| Noah Brown | 1 | 1 | 28 | 0 |
| John Bates | 1 | 1 | 19 | 0 |
| Jeremy McNichols | 1 | 1 | 16 | 0 |
| Treylon Burks | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
| Jaylin Lane | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Giants
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jaxson Dart | 20/36 | 246 | 2 | 1 |
| Jameis Winston | 0/1 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tyrone Tracy Jr. | 15 | 70 | 4.7 | 1 |
| Jaxson Dart | 9 | 63 | 7.0 | 0 |
| Devin Singletary | 5 | 13 | 2.6 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Theo Johnson | 3 | 4 | 72 | 0 |
| Wan'Dale Robinson | 5 | 10 | 54 | 1 |
| Darius Slayton | 4 | 10 | 53 | 0 |
| Daniel Bellinger | 3 | 4 | 35 | 0 |
| Tyrone Tracy Jr. | 3 | 4 | 27 | 1 |
| Isaiah Hodgins | 1 | 2 | 4 | 0 |
| Devin Singletary | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 |
| Jalin Hyatt | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Giants; negative favour Commanders.
Half-point at risk
7.51%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
59.4%
Expected total
46.2est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+1.69
- Home-field advantage+1.71
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential+0.48
- Expected margin+3.87