2025 · Week 15 · Division

Final

Commanders

Washington

QB Marcus Mariota

29·21

Giants

New York

QB Jaxson Dart

MetLife Stadium · outdoors · fieldturf · 27°F · wind 13mph

Closing spread

NYG -2.5

Total

46.5

Model margin

+3.9est.

NYG perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Commanders

Giants

Win probability

  • Giants
  • Commanders

How each play moved the game.

Giants winsCommanders wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Commandersedge mapGiants
  • +0.035EPA / play+0.043
  • 46.4%Success rate42.9%
  • +0.084EPA / dropback+0.099
  • -0.039EPA / rush-0.040
  • 8.6%Explosive rate8.6%
  • +0.67CPOE-1.30
  • 37.2%Third-down rate39.6%
  • 72.8%Red-zone TD rate56.3%
  • 2.03Points / drive2.06
  • 2.0%Turnover rate1.4%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

NYG lead 32–21–2 since 1999

Meetings average 40.1 points. NYG are 29-24-2 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2026 · W5NYG @ WAS27–27Tie
2025 · W1NYG @ WAS6–21WAS
2024 · W9WAS @ NYG27–22WAS
2024 · W2NYG @ WAS18–21WAS
2023 · W11NYG @ WAS31–19NYG
2023 · W7WAS @ NYG7–14NYG
2022 · W15NYG @ WAS20–12NYG
2022 · W13WAS @ NYG20–20Tie

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultWAS–NYG
WASQ1 15:001054Field goal3–0
NYGQ1 9:22529Missed field goal3–0
WASQ1 6:59820Punt3–0
NYGQ1 2:1439Punt3–0
WASQ1 0:32447Touchdown10–0
NYGQ2 13:38420Punt10–0
WASQ2 12:09855Field goal13–0
NYGQ2 8:261060Touchdown13–7
WASQ2 3:3744Punt13–7
NYGQ2 1:403-5Opp touchdown19–7
NYGQ2 1:05425Turnover19–7
WASQ2 0:1010Field goal22–7
NYGQ3 15:00777Touchdown22–14
WASQ3 11:48526Punt22–14
NYGQ3 9:04311Punt22–14
WASQ3 7:2237Punt22–14
NYGQ3 5:591169Missed field goal22–14
WASQ4 14:55269Touchdown29–14
NYGQ4 13:46855Turnover on downs29–14
WASQ4 10:22923Turnover29–14
NYGQ4 5:39421Touchdown29–21
WASQ4 3:43438Turnover29–21
NYGQ4 2:38613Turnover on downs29–21
WASQ4 1:3700End of half29–21

Box score

Individual performances

Commanders

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Marcus Mariota10/1921110

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Jacory Croskey-Merritt18965.31
Marcus Mariota10434.30
Jeremy McNichols960.70

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Terry McLaurin34691
Deebo Samuel Sr.35430
Ben Sinnott11360
Noah Brown11280
John Bates11190
Jeremy McNichols11160
Treylon Burks0200
Jaylin Lane0100

Giants

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Jaxson Dart20/3624621
Jameis Winston0/1000

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Tyrone Tracy Jr.15704.71
Jaxson Dart9637.00
Devin Singletary5132.60

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Theo Johnson34720
Wan'Dale Robinson510541
Darius Slayton410530
Daniel Bellinger34350
Tyrone Tracy Jr.34271
Isaiah Hodgins1240
Devin Singletary1110
Jalin Hyatt0100

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +2.53.7%6.7%7.5%3.2%4.9%3.2%2.8%

Positive margins favour Giants; negative favour Commanders.

Half-point at risk

7.51%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

59.4%

Expected total

46.2est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+1.69
  • Home-field advantage+1.71
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential+0.48
  • Expected margin+3.87