2024 · Week 2 · Division

Final

Giants

New York

QB Daniel Jones

18·21

Commanders

Washington

QB Jayden Daniels

FedExField · outdoors · grass · 82°F · wind 11mph

Closing spread

WAS -1.5

Total

42.5

Model margin

+5.2est.

WAS perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Giants

Commanders

Win probability

  • Commanders
  • Giants

How each play moved the game.

Commanders winsGiants wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Giantsedge mapCommanders
  • -0.088EPA / play+0.138
  • 41.1%Success rate48.1%
  • -0.073EPA / dropback+0.211
  • -0.116EPA / rush+0.027
  • 6.8%Explosive rate8.5%
  • -1.45CPOE+4.57
  • 36.0%Third-down rate45.9%
  • 47.5%Red-zone TD rate67.2%
  • 1.28Points / drive2.78
  • 2.0%Turnover rate1.2%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

NYG lead 32–21–2 since 1999

Meetings average 40.1 points. WAS are 24-29-2 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2026 · W5NYG @ WAS27–27Tie
2025 · W15WAS @ NYG29–21WAS
2025 · W1NYG @ WAS6–21WAS
2024 · W9WAS @ NYG27–22WAS
2023 · W11NYG @ WAS31–19NYG
2023 · W7WAS @ NYG7–14NYG
2022 · W15NYG @ WAS20–12NYG
2022 · W13WAS @ NYG20–20Tie

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultNYG–WAS
WASQ1 15:001664Field goal0–3
NYGQ1 5:24753Touchdown6–3
WASQ1 1:06943Field goal6–6
NYGQ2 10:37531Punt6–6
WASQ2 8:161379Field goal6–9
NYGQ2 1:501069Touchdown12–9
WASQ2 0:0800End of half12–9
NYGQ3 15:00439Turnover12–9
WASQ3 12:49961Field goal12–12
NYGQ3 7:5830Punt12–12
WASQ3 7:25864Field goal12–15
NYGQ3 2:471466Touchdown18–15
WASQ4 11:32950Field goal18–18
NYGQ4 7:121146Turnover on downs18–18
WASQ4 2:04666Field goal18–21

Box score

Individual performances

Giants

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Daniel Jones16/2817820

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Devin Singletary16955.91
Daniel Jones5326.40
Tyrone Tracy Jr.122.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Malik Nabers10181271
Darius Slayton34330
Wan'Dale Robinson24181
Devin Singletary1100

Commanders

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Jayden Daniels23/2922600

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Brian Robinson171337.80
Jayden Daniels10444.40
Austin Ekeler8384.80

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Zach Ertz44620
Noah Brown33560
Austin Ekeler33470
Terry McLaurin68220
Dyami Brown24170
Olamide Zaccheaus33140
John Bates1150
Brian Robinson1330

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +1.53.5%6.4%7.4%3.2%4.9%3.3%3.0%

Positive margins favour Commanders; negative favour Giants.

Half-point at risk

2.09%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

62.8%

Expected total

44.6est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+3.48
  • Home-field advantage+1.71
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+5.18