2024 · Week 2 · Division
Final
FedExField · outdoors · grass · 82°F · wind 11mph
Closing spread
WAS -1.5
Total
42.5
Model margin
+5.2est.
WAS perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Commanders
- Giants
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.088EPA / play+0.138
- 41.1%Success rate48.1%
- -0.073EPA / dropback+0.211
- -0.116EPA / rush+0.027
- 6.8%Explosive rate8.5%
- -1.45CPOE+4.57
- 36.0%Third-down rate45.9%
- 47.5%Red-zone TD rate67.2%
- 1.28Points / drive2.78
- 2.0%Turnover rate1.2%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
NYG lead 32–21–1 since 1999
WAS have won 4 straight. Meetings average 39.8 points. WAS are 24-28-2 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Giants
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Daniel Jones | 16/28 | 178 | 2 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Devin Singletary | 16 | 95 | 5.9 | 1 |
| Daniel Jones | 5 | 32 | 6.4 | 0 |
| Tyrone Tracy Jr. | 1 | 2 | 2.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Malik Nabers | 10 | 18 | 127 | 1 |
| Darius Slayton | 3 | 4 | 33 | 0 |
| Wan'Dale Robinson | 2 | 4 | 18 | 1 |
| Devin Singletary | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Commanders
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jayden Daniels | 23/29 | 226 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brian Robinson | 17 | 133 | 7.8 | 0 |
| Jayden Daniels | 10 | 44 | 4.4 | 0 |
| Austin Ekeler | 8 | 38 | 4.8 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Zach Ertz | 4 | 4 | 62 | 0 |
| Noah Brown | 3 | 3 | 56 | 0 |
| Austin Ekeler | 3 | 3 | 47 | 0 |
| Terry McLaurin | 6 | 8 | 22 | 0 |
| Dyami Brown | 2 | 4 | 17 | 0 |
| Olamide Zaccheaus | 3 | 3 | 14 | 0 |
| John Bates | 1 | 1 | 5 | 0 |
| Brian Robinson | 1 | 3 | 3 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Commanders; negative favour Giants.
Half-point at risk
2.09%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
62.8%
Expected total
44.6est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+3.48
- Home-field advantage+1.71
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+5.18