2023 · Week 7 · Division
Final
MetLife Stadium · outdoors · fieldturf · 54°F · wind 14mph
Closing spread
WAS -3
Total
37
Model margin
+7.1est.
NYG perspective
Push chance
5.9%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Giants
- Commanders
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.084EPA / play-0.165
- 41.9%Success rate38.2%
- -0.069EPA / dropback-0.143
- -0.119EPA / rush-0.205
- 8.0%Explosive rate7.6%
- +0.32CPOE+0.19
- 35.6%Third-down rate30.9%
- 66.6%Red-zone TD rate45.8%
- 1.53Points / drive1.09
- 2.7%Turnover rate1.6%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
NYG lead 32–21–1 since 1999
WAS have won 4 straight. Meetings average 39.8 points. NYG are 28-24-2 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Commanders
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sam Howell | 22/42 | 249 | 0 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chris Rodriguez Jr. | 7 | 31 | 4.4 | 0 |
| Brian Robinson | 8 | 23 | 2.9 | 1 |
| Sam Howell | 2 | 15 | 7.5 | 0 |
| Antonio Gibson | 2 | 7 | 3.5 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Terry McLaurin | 6 | 9 | 90 | 0 |
| Logan Thomas | 4 | 6 | 51 | 0 |
| Jahan Dotson | 5 | 8 | 43 | 0 |
| Curtis Samuel | 4 | 8 | 25 | 0 |
| Antonio Gibson | 2 | 2 | 24 | 0 |
| Byron Pringle | 1 | 1 | 16 | 0 |
| John Bates | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Brian Robinson | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Giants
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tyrod Taylor | 18/29 | 279 | 2 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Saquon Barkley | 21 | 77 | 3.7 | 0 |
| Tyrod Taylor | 8 | 25 | 3.1 | 0 |
| Matt Breida | 3 | 4 | 1.3 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Darren Waller | 7 | 8 | 98 | 1 |
| Jalin Hyatt | 2 | 5 | 75 | 0 |
| Saquon Barkley | 3 | 4 | 41 | 1 |
| Darius Slayton | 1 | 2 | 22 | 0 |
| Wan'Dale Robinson | 1 | 2 | 22 | 0 |
| Isaiah Hodgins | 2 | 4 | 13 | 0 |
| Matt Breida | 1 | 1 | 5 | 0 |
| Sterling Shepard | 1 | 1 | 3 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Giants; negative favour Commanders.
Half-point at risk
5.85%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
67.7%
Expected total
44.6est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+1.88
- Home-field advantage+1.71
- Quarterback adjustment+3.55
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+7.13