2023 · Week 7 · Division

Final

Commanders

Washington

QB Sam Howell

7·14

Giants

New York

QB Tyrod Taylor

MetLife Stadium · outdoors · fieldturf · 54°F · wind 14mph

Closing spread

WAS -3

Total

37

Model margin

+7.1est.

NYG perspective

Push chance

5.9%est.

the line sits on a key number

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Commanders

Giants

Win probability

  • Giants
  • Commanders

How each play moved the game.

Giants winsCommanders wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Commandersedge mapGiants
  • -0.084EPA / play-0.165
  • 41.9%Success rate38.2%
  • -0.069EPA / dropback-0.143
  • -0.119EPA / rush-0.205
  • 8.0%Explosive rate7.6%
  • +0.32CPOE+0.19
  • 35.6%Third-down rate30.9%
  • 66.6%Red-zone TD rate45.8%
  • 1.53Points / drive1.09
  • 2.7%Turnover rate1.6%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

NYG lead 32–21–2 since 1999

Meetings average 40.1 points. NYG are 29-24-2 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2026 · W5NYG @ WAS27–27Tie
2025 · W15WAS @ NYG29–21WAS
2025 · W1NYG @ WAS6–21WAS
2024 · W9WAS @ NYG27–22WAS
2024 · W2NYG @ WAS18–21WAS
2023 · W11NYG @ WAS31–19NYG
2022 · W15NYG @ WAS20–12NYG
2022 · W13WAS @ NYG20–20Tie

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultWAS–NYG
NYGQ1 15:003-1Punt0–0
WASQ1 14:0938Punt0–0
NYGQ1 11:36866Missed field goal0–0
WASQ1 8:2034Punt0–0
NYGQ1 7:2539Punt0–0
WASQ1 6:08415Punt0–0
NYGQ1 3:51998Touchdown0–7
WASQ2 14:183-5Punt0–7
NYGQ2 12:3334Punt0–7
WASQ2 11:20420Turnover0–7
NYGQ2 9:34248Touchdown0–14
WASQ2 8:5635Punt0–14
NYGQ2 7:44414Punt0–14
WASQ2 6:1040Punt0–14
NYGQ2 4:0865Punt0–14
WASQ2 1:423-1Punt0–14
NYGQ2 0:59413End of half0–14
WASQ3 15:0036Punt0–14
WASQ3 13:09621Touchdown7–14
NYGQ3 10:21620Punt7–14
WASQ3 7:41531Punt7–14
NYGQ3 5:2939Punt7–14
WASQ3 4:03313Punt7–14
NYGQ3 2:2638Punt7–14
WASQ3 1:06771Missed field goal7–14
NYGQ4 13:231167Turnover7–14
WASQ4 7:461885Turnover on downs7–14
NYGQ4 0:5600End of half7–14

Box score

Individual performances

Commanders

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Sam Howell22/4224901

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Chris Rodriguez Jr.7314.40
Brian Robinson8232.91
Sam Howell2157.50
Antonio Gibson273.50

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Terry McLaurin69900
Logan Thomas46510
Jahan Dotson58430
Curtis Samuel48250
Antonio Gibson22240
Byron Pringle11160
John Bates0100
Brian Robinson0100

Giants

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Tyrod Taylor18/2927920

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Saquon Barkley21773.70
Tyrod Taylor8253.10
Matt Breida341.30

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Darren Waller78981
Jalin Hyatt25750
Saquon Barkley34411
Darius Slayton12220
Wan'Dale Robinson12220
Isaiah Hodgins24130
Matt Breida1150
Sterling Shepard1130

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line -33.0%5.9%7.2%3.2%5.0%3.4%

Positive margins favour Giants; negative favour Commanders.

Half-point at risk

5.85%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

67.7%

Expected total

44.6est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+1.88
  • Home-field advantage+1.71
  • Quarterback adjustment+3.55
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+7.13