2023 · Week 11 · Division

Final

Giants

New York

QB Tommy DeVito

31·19

Commanders

Washington

QB Sam Howell

FedExField · outdoors · grass · 56°F · wind 7mph

Closing spread

WAS -7.5

Total

39

Model margin

-0.2est.

WAS perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Giants

Commanders

Win probability

  • Commanders
  • Giants

How each play moved the game.

Commanders winsGiants wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Giantsedge mapCommanders
  • -0.165EPA / play-0.084
  • 38.2%Success rate41.9%
  • -0.143EPA / dropback-0.069
  • -0.205EPA / rush-0.119
  • 7.6%Explosive rate8.0%
  • +0.19CPOE+0.32
  • 30.9%Third-down rate35.6%
  • 45.8%Red-zone TD rate66.6%
  • 1.09Points / drive1.53
  • 1.6%Turnover rate2.7%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

NYG lead 32–21–2 since 1999

Meetings average 40.1 points. WAS are 24-29-2 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2026 · W5NYG @ WAS27–27Tie
2025 · W15WAS @ NYG29–21WAS
2025 · W1NYG @ WAS6–21WAS
2024 · W9WAS @ NYG27–22WAS
2024 · W2NYG @ WAS18–21WAS
2023 · W7WAS @ NYG7–14NYG
2022 · W15NYG @ WAS20–12NYG
2022 · W13WAS @ NYG20–20Tie

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultNYG–WAS
NYGQ1 15:00619Punt0–0
WASQ1 11:56415Turnover0–0
NYGQ1 10:0135Punt0–0
WASQ1 8:24216Turnover0–0
NYGQ1 7:39445Touchdown7–0
WASQ1 6:29870Field goal7–3
NYGQ1 2:123-8Punt7–3
WASQ1 0:0438Punt7–3
NYGQ2 13:42841Turnover on downs7–3
WASQ2 10:113-6Punt7–3
NYGQ2 8:43662Touchdown14–3
WASQ2 5:581275Touchdown14–9
NYGQ2 1:323-2Punt14–9
WASQ2 1:103-7End of half14–9
WASQ3 15:0000Punt14–9
NYGQ3 14:493-11Punt14–9
WASQ3 13:201363Field goal14–12
NYGQ3 5:43519Punt14–12
WASQ3 3:40545Turnover14–12
NYGQ3 0:42568Touchdown21–12
WASQ4 13:32513Turnover21–12
NYGQ4 11:11646Field goal24–12
WASQ4 6:481456Touchdown24–19
NYGQ4 2:1638Punt24–19
WASQ4 1:49833Opp touchdown31–19
WASQ4 0:16123End of half31–19

Box score

Individual performances

Giants

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Tommy DeVito18/2624630

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Saquon Barkley14835.90
Tommy DeVito177.00
Wan'Dale Robinson122.00
Matt Breida3-1-0.30

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Darius Slayton45821
Saquon Barkley45572
Daniel Bellinger33380
Wan'Dale Robinson34350
Isaiah Hodgins23220
Jalin Hyatt1270
Sterling Shepard1350
Matt Breida0100

Commanders

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Sam Howell31/4525613

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Brian Robinson17734.30
Chris Rodriguez Jr.6437.20
Sam Howell33511.71
Derrick Gore22311.50

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Brian Robinson79590
Logan Thomas58580
Terry McLaurin57430
Jahan Dotson34231
Byron Pringle33220
John Bates22150
Jamison Crowder22120
Dyami Brown1370
Cole Turner1170
Curtis Samuel1250
Chris Rodriguez Jr.1150

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +7.54.4%2.9%7.4%7.3%2.9%4.4%2.7%

Positive margins favour Commanders; negative favour Giants.

Half-point at risk

1.90%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

48.6%

Expected total

44.6est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-1.88
  • Home-field advantage+1.71
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin-0.17