2023 · Week 11 · Division
Final
FedExField · outdoors · grass · 56°F · wind 7mph
Closing spread
WAS -7.5
Total
39
Model margin
-0.2est.
WAS perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Commanders
- Giants
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.165EPA / play-0.084
- 38.2%Success rate41.9%
- -0.143EPA / dropback-0.069
- -0.205EPA / rush-0.119
- 7.6%Explosive rate8.0%
- +0.19CPOE+0.32
- 30.9%Third-down rate35.6%
- 45.8%Red-zone TD rate66.6%
- 1.09Points / drive1.53
- 1.6%Turnover rate2.7%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
NYG lead 32–21–1 since 1999
WAS have won 4 straight. Meetings average 39.8 points. WAS are 24-28-2 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Giants
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tommy DeVito | 18/26 | 246 | 3 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Saquon Barkley | 14 | 83 | 5.9 | 0 |
| Tommy DeVito | 1 | 7 | 7.0 | 0 |
| Wan'Dale Robinson | 1 | 2 | 2.0 | 0 |
| Matt Breida | 3 | -1 | -0.3 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Darius Slayton | 4 | 5 | 82 | 1 |
| Saquon Barkley | 4 | 5 | 57 | 2 |
| Daniel Bellinger | 3 | 3 | 38 | 0 |
| Wan'Dale Robinson | 3 | 4 | 35 | 0 |
| Isaiah Hodgins | 2 | 3 | 22 | 0 |
| Jalin Hyatt | 1 | 2 | 7 | 0 |
| Sterling Shepard | 1 | 3 | 5 | 0 |
| Matt Breida | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Commanders
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sam Howell | 31/45 | 256 | 1 | 3 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brian Robinson | 17 | 73 | 4.3 | 0 |
| Chris Rodriguez Jr. | 6 | 43 | 7.2 | 0 |
| Sam Howell | 3 | 35 | 11.7 | 1 |
| Derrick Gore | 2 | 23 | 11.5 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brian Robinson | 7 | 9 | 59 | 0 |
| Logan Thomas | 5 | 8 | 58 | 0 |
| Terry McLaurin | 5 | 7 | 43 | 0 |
| Jahan Dotson | 3 | 4 | 23 | 1 |
| Byron Pringle | 3 | 3 | 22 | 0 |
| John Bates | 2 | 2 | 15 | 0 |
| Jamison Crowder | 2 | 2 | 12 | 0 |
| Dyami Brown | 1 | 3 | 7 | 0 |
| Cole Turner | 1 | 1 | 7 | 0 |
| Curtis Samuel | 1 | 2 | 5 | 0 |
| Chris Rodriguez Jr. | 1 | 1 | 5 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Commanders; negative favour Giants.
Half-point at risk
1.90%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
48.6%
Expected total
44.6est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-1.88
- Home-field advantage+1.71
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin-0.17