2022 · Week 15 · Division
Final
FedExField · outdoors · grass · 35°F · wind 13mph
Closing spread
WAS -4.5
Total
40.5
Model margin
+3.9est.
WAS perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Commanders
- Giants
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.033EPA / play-0.066
- 45.0%Success rate40.9%
- +0.058EPA / dropback-0.045
- -0.004EPA / rush-0.092
- 7.9%Explosive rate8.0%
- +1.68CPOE-1.41
- 37.7%Third-down rate34.9%
- 71.3%Red-zone TD rate61.4%
- 2.02Points / drive1.48
- 1.2%Turnover rate2.0%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
NYG lead 32–21–1 since 1999
WAS have won 4 straight. Meetings average 39.8 points. WAS are 24-28-2 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Giants
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Daniel Jones | 21/32 | 160 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Saquon Barkley | 18 | 87 | 4.8 | 1 |
| Daniel Jones | 10 | 35 | 3.5 | 0 |
| Matt Breida | 2 | 6 | 3.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Richie James | 4 | 5 | 42 | 0 |
| Isaiah Hodgins | 4 | 4 | 37 | 0 |
| Saquon Barkley | 5 | 8 | 33 | 0 |
| Darius Slayton | 5 | 7 | 23 | 0 |
| Nick Vannett | 1 | 1 | 15 | 0 |
| Matt Breida | 1 | 1 | 6 | 0 |
| Daniel Bellinger | 1 | 4 | 4 | 0 |
Commanders
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Taylor Heinicke | 17/29 | 249 | 1 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brian Robinson | 12 | 89 | 7.4 | 0 |
| Taylor Heinicke | 3 | 33 | 11.0 | 0 |
| Antonio Gibson | 5 | 21 | 4.2 | 0 |
| Dyami Brown | 1 | 15 | 15.0 | 0 |
| Curtis Samuel | 5 | 1 | 0.2 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jahan Dotson | 4 | 6 | 105 | 1 |
| Terry McLaurin | 6 | 6 | 70 | 0 |
| Curtis Samuel | 3 | 5 | 44 | 0 |
| Brian Robinson | 1 | 1 | 18 | 0 |
| Logan Thomas | 1 | 3 | 6 | 0 |
| Antonio Gibson | 2 | 4 | 6 | 0 |
| Dyami Brown | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Commanders; negative favour Giants.
Half-point at risk
1.97%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
59.5%
Expected total
43.4est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.23
- Home-field advantage+1.71
- Quarterback adjustment+1.40
- Rest differential+0.56
- Expected margin+3.89