2022 · Week 15 · Division

Final

Giants

New York

QB Daniel Jones

20·12

Commanders

Washington

QB Taylor Heinicke

FedExField · outdoors · grass · 35°F · wind 13mph

Closing spread

WAS -4.5

Total

40.5

Model margin

+3.9est.

WAS perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Giants

Commanders

Win probability

  • Commanders
  • Giants

How each play moved the game.

Commanders winsGiants wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Giantsedge mapCommanders
  • +0.033EPA / play-0.066
  • 45.0%Success rate40.9%
  • +0.058EPA / dropback-0.045
  • -0.004EPA / rush-0.092
  • 7.9%Explosive rate8.0%
  • +1.68CPOE-1.41
  • 37.7%Third-down rate34.9%
  • 71.3%Red-zone TD rate61.4%
  • 2.02Points / drive1.48
  • 1.2%Turnover rate2.0%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

NYG lead 32–21–2 since 1999

Meetings average 40.1 points. WAS are 24-29-2 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2026 · W5NYG @ WAS27–27Tie
2025 · W15WAS @ NYG29–21WAS
2025 · W1NYG @ WAS6–21WAS
2024 · W9WAS @ NYG27–22WAS
2024 · W2NYG @ WAS18–21WAS
2023 · W11NYG @ WAS31–19NYG
2023 · W7WAS @ NYG7–14NYG
2022 · W13WAS @ NYG20–20Tie

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultNYG–WAS
WASQ1 15:001136Punt0–0
NYGQ1 8:3333Punt0–0
WASQ1 7:43852Field goal0–3
NYGQ1 2:51524Punt0–3
WASQ2 14:083-7Opp touchdown7–3
WASQ2 13:10628Punt7–3
NYGQ2 10:1818102Touchdown14–3
WASQ2 1:43515Punt14–3
NYGQ2 0:1600End of half14–3
NYGQ3 15:00517Punt14–3
WASQ3 12:49896Touchdown14–9
NYGQ3 8:381053Field goal17–9
WASQ3 3:1139Punt17–9
NYGQ3 1:2635Punt17–9
WASQ3 0:22625Field goal17–12
NYGQ4 12:31833Punt17–12
WASQ4 9:06577Turnover17–12
NYGQ4 6:06854Field goal20–12
WASQ4 1:55856Turnover on downs20–12
NYGQ4 0:4800End of half20–12

Box score

Individual performances

Giants

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Daniel Jones21/3216000

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Saquon Barkley18874.81
Daniel Jones10353.50
Matt Breida263.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Richie James45420
Isaiah Hodgins44370
Saquon Barkley58330
Darius Slayton57230
Nick Vannett11150
Matt Breida1160
Daniel Bellinger1440

Commanders

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Taylor Heinicke17/2924910

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Brian Robinson12897.40
Taylor Heinicke33311.00
Antonio Gibson5214.20
Dyami Brown11515.00
Curtis Samuel510.20

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Jahan Dotson461051
Terry McLaurin66700
Curtis Samuel35440
Brian Robinson11180
Logan Thomas1360
Antonio Gibson2460
Dyami Brown0200

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +4.53.7%6.7%7.5%3.2%4.9%3.2%2.8%

Positive margins favour Commanders; negative favour Giants.

Half-point at risk

1.97%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

59.5%

Expected total

43.4est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.23
  • Home-field advantage+1.71
  • Quarterback adjustment+1.40
  • Rest differential+0.56
  • Expected margin+3.89