2025 · Week 1 · Division
Final
FedExField · outdoors · grass · 68°F · wind 5mph
Closing spread
WAS -6
Total
45.5
Model margin
+0.5est.
WAS perspective
Push chance
3.0%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Commanders
- Giants
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.043EPA / play+0.035
- 42.9%Success rate46.4%
- +0.099EPA / dropback+0.084
- -0.040EPA / rush-0.039
- 8.6%Explosive rate8.6%
- -1.30CPOE+0.67
- 39.6%Third-down rate37.2%
- 56.3%Red-zone TD rate72.8%
- 2.06Points / drive2.03
- 1.4%Turnover rate2.0%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
NYG lead 32–21–1 since 1999
WAS have won 4 straight. Meetings average 39.8 points. WAS are 24-28-2 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Giants
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Russell Wilson | 17/37 | 168 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Russell Wilson | 8 | 44 | 5.5 | 0 |
| Tyrone Tracy Jr. | 10 | 24 | 2.4 | 0 |
| Devin Singletary | 3 | 9 | 3.0 | 0 |
| Cam Skattebo | 2 | -3 | -1.5 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Malik Nabers | 5 | 12 | 71 | 0 |
| Wan'Dale Robinson | 6 | 8 | 55 | 0 |
| Daniel Bellinger | 1 | 1 | 14 | 0 |
| Cam Skattebo | 2 | 2 | 12 | 0 |
| Tyrone Tracy Jr. | 2 | 5 | 11 | 0 |
| Theo Johnson | 1 | 3 | 5 | 0 |
| Darius Slayton | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Commanders
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jayden Daniels | 19/30 | 233 | 1 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jacory Croskey-Merritt | 10 | 82 | 8.2 | 1 |
| Jayden Daniels | 11 | 68 | 6.2 | 0 |
| Austin Ekeler | 6 | 26 | 4.3 | 0 |
| Jeremy McNichols | 4 | 25 | 6.3 | 0 |
| Deebo Samuel Sr. | 1 | 19 | 19.0 | 1 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Deebo Samuel Sr. | 7 | 10 | 77 | 0 |
| Chris Moore | 1 | 1 | 34 | 0 |
| Austin Ekeler | 3 | 3 | 31 | 0 |
| Noah Brown | 2 | 3 | 27 | 0 |
| Terry McLaurin | 2 | 4 | 27 | 0 |
| Zach Ertz | 3 | 5 | 26 | 1 |
| Jaylin Lane | 1 | 2 | 11 | 0 |
| Jacory Croskey-Merritt | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Commanders; negative favour Giants.
Half-point at risk
2.96%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
50.3%
Expected total
46.2est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-1.69
- Home-field advantage+1.71
- Quarterback adjustment+0.45
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+0.46