2025 · Week 1 · Division

Final

Giants

New York

QB Russell Wilson

6·21

Commanders

Washington

QB Jayden Daniels

FedExField · outdoors · grass · 68°F · wind 5mph

Closing spread

WAS -6

Total

45.5

Model margin

+0.5est.

WAS perspective

Push chance

3.0%est.

the line sits on a key number

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Giants

Commanders

Win probability

  • Commanders
  • Giants

How each play moved the game.

Commanders winsGiants wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Giantsedge mapCommanders
  • +0.043EPA / play+0.035
  • 42.9%Success rate46.4%
  • +0.099EPA / dropback+0.084
  • -0.040EPA / rush-0.039
  • 8.6%Explosive rate8.6%
  • -1.30CPOE+0.67
  • 39.6%Third-down rate37.2%
  • 56.3%Red-zone TD rate72.8%
  • 2.06Points / drive2.03
  • 1.4%Turnover rate2.0%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

NYG lead 32–21–2 since 1999

Meetings average 40.1 points. WAS are 24-29-2 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2026 · W5NYG @ WAS27–27Tie
2025 · W15WAS @ NYG29–21WAS
2024 · W9WAS @ NYG27–22WAS
2024 · W2NYG @ WAS18–21WAS
2023 · W11NYG @ WAS31–19NYG
2023 · W7WAS @ NYG7–14NYG
2022 · W15NYG @ WAS20–12NYG
2022 · W13WAS @ NYG20–20Tie

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultNYG–WAS
WASQ1 15:00621Punt0–0
NYGQ1 12:3133Punt0–0
WASQ1 11:02889Touchdown0–7
NYGQ1 7:001666Field goal3–7
WASQ2 13:5731Punt3–7
NYGQ2 13:0739Punt3–7
WASQ2 11:401053Touchdown3–14
NYGQ2 6:1471Punt3–14
WASQ2 2:001055End of half3–14
NYGQ3 15:00415Punt3–14
WASQ3 12:24630Punt3–14
NYGQ3 9:1830Punt3–14
WASQ3 8:30419Punt3–14
NYGQ3 7:041348Field goal6–14
WASQ3 1:4355Punt6–14
NYGQ4 14:10537Punt6–14
WASQ4 12:061095Touchdown6–21
NYGQ4 7:091452Turnover on downs6–21
WASQ4 2:39567End of half6–21

Box score

Individual performances

Giants

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Russell Wilson17/3716800

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Russell Wilson8445.50
Tyrone Tracy Jr.10242.40
Devin Singletary393.00
Cam Skattebo2-3-1.50

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Malik Nabers512710
Wan'Dale Robinson68550
Daniel Bellinger11140
Cam Skattebo22120
Tyrone Tracy Jr.25110
Theo Johnson1350
Darius Slayton0100

Commanders

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Jayden Daniels19/3023310

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Jacory Croskey-Merritt10828.21
Jayden Daniels11686.20
Austin Ekeler6264.30
Jeremy McNichols4256.30
Deebo Samuel Sr.11919.01

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Deebo Samuel Sr.710770
Chris Moore11340
Austin Ekeler33310
Noah Brown23270
Terry McLaurin24270
Zach Ertz35261
Jaylin Lane12110
Jacory Croskey-Merritt0100

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +64.3%2.9%7.3%7.4%3.0%4.5%2.8%

Positive margins favour Commanders; negative favour Giants.

Half-point at risk

2.96%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

50.3%

Expected total

46.2est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-1.69
  • Home-field advantage+1.71
  • Quarterback adjustment+0.45
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+0.46