2026 · Week 5 · Division

Final / OT

Giants

New York

QB Jameis Winston

27·27

Commanders

Washington

QB Jayden Daniels

Northwest Stadium · outdoors

Closing spread

WAS -3.5

Total

41.5

Model margin

+1.5est.

WAS perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Giants

Commanders

Win probability

  • Commanders
  • Giants

How each play moved the game.

Commanders winsGiants wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Giantsedge mapCommanders
  • +0.027EPA / play-0.005
  • 42.9%Success rate41.2%
  • +0.118EPA / dropback+0.061
  • -0.102EPA / rush-0.123
  • 7.8%Explosive rate7.5%
  • -2.00CPOE+2.73
  • 44.9%Third-down rate32.2%
  • 62.4%Red-zone TD rate64.4%
  • 2.15Points / drive1.92
  • 2.1%Turnover rate0.7%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

NYG lead 32–21–2 since 1999

Meetings average 40.1 points. WAS are 24-29-2 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2025 · W15WAS @ NYG29–21WAS
2025 · W1NYG @ WAS6–21WAS
2024 · W9WAS @ NYG27–22WAS
2024 · W2NYG @ WAS18–21WAS
2023 · W11NYG @ WAS31–19NYG
2023 · W7WAS @ NYG7–14NYG
2022 · W15NYG @ WAS20–12NYG
2022 · W13WAS @ NYG20–20Tie

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultNYG–WAS
WASQ1 15:00469Touchdown0–6
NYGQ1 13:001132Missed field goal0–6
WASQ1 7:113-4Punt0–6
NYGQ1 5:5038Punt0–6
WASQ1 3:373-8Punt0–6
NYGQ1 2:35422Field goal3–6
WASQ1 0:551373Field goal3–9
NYGQ2 8:576-5Punt3–9
WASQ2 5:0035Punt3–9
NYGQ2 2:502-6Turnover3–9
WASQ2 1:5835Field goal3–12
NYGQ2 1:02726Missed field goal3–12
WASQ2 0:0200End of half3–12
NYGQ3 15:00735Field goal6–12
WASQ3 10:54672Touchdown6–19
NYGQ3 7:471459Touchdown13–19
WASQ3 0:44881Touchdown13–27
NYGQ4 11:05975Touchdown20–27
WASQ4 7:203-4Punt20–27
NYGQ4 4:561072Touchdown27–27
WASQ4 1:43419Punt27–27
NYGQ4 0:0600End of half27–27
NYGOT724Missed field goal27–27
WASOT418Punt27–27
NYGOT867Turnover27–27
WASOT653End of half27–27

Box score

Individual performances

Giants

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Jameis Winston33/5432630

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Cam Skattebo13594.50
Jameis Winston5275.40
Najee Harris591.80
Tyrone Tracy Jr.362.00
J.J. McCarthy221.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Malik Nabers11201211
Isaiah Likely1113942
Theo Johnson23350
Tyrone Tracy Jr.23250
Malachi Fields22200
Darnell Mooney27140
Cam Skattebo23120
Najee Harris1150

Commanders

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Jayden Daniels17/2519900

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Jayden Daniels910311.42
Jacory Croskey-Merritt11827.51
Rachaad White7182.60
Austin Ekeler3-1-0.30

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Terry McLaurin44620
Chig Okonkwo46600
Antonio Williams33310
Treylon Burks25260
Austin Ekeler11150
Dyami Brown1220
Rachaad White1120
John Bates1110

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +3.54.2%2.8%7.1%7.5%3.0%4.6%2.9%

Positive margins favour Commanders; negative favour Giants.

Half-point at risk

2.51%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

53.1%

Expected total

45.0est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.70
  • Home-field advantage+2.22
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+1.52