2026 · Week 5 · Division
Scheduled
Northwest Stadium · outdoors · grass
Closing spread
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Total
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Model margin
+0.3est.
WAS perspective
Push chance
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Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
Giantsedge mapCommanders
- +0.363EPA / play+0.073
- 59.1%Success rate43.5%
- +0.667EPA / dropback+0.160
- +0.059EPA / rush-0.046
- 6.1%Explosive rate4.3%
- +13.38CPOE-3.44
- 90.0%Third-down rate33.3%
- 80.0%Red-zone TD rate100.0%
- 3.97Points / drive1.99
- 1.5%Turnover rate0.0%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
NYG lead 32–21–1 since 1999
WAS have won 4 straight. Meetings average 39.8 points. WAS are 24-28-2 ATS in the series.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-1.96
- Home-field advantage+2.22
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+0.26