2024 · Week 9 · Division
Final
MetLife Stadium · outdoors · fieldturf · 52°F · wind 6mph
Closing spread
WAS -4.5
Total
44.5
Model margin
-1.9est.
NYG perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Giants
- Commanders
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.138EPA / play-0.088
- 48.1%Success rate41.1%
- +0.211EPA / dropback-0.073
- +0.027EPA / rush-0.116
- 8.5%Explosive rate6.8%
- +4.57CPOE-1.45
- 45.9%Third-down rate36.0%
- 67.2%Red-zone TD rate47.5%
- 2.78Points / drive1.28
- 1.2%Turnover rate2.0%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
NYG lead 32–21–1 since 1999
WAS have won 4 straight. Meetings average 39.8 points. NYG are 28-24-2 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Commanders
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jayden Daniels | 15/22 | 209 | 2 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chris Rodriguez Jr. | 11 | 52 | 4.7 | 0 |
| Austin Ekeler | 11 | 42 | 3.8 | 1 |
| Jayden Daniels | 8 | 35 | 4.4 | 0 |
| Jeremy McNichols | 8 | 20 | 2.5 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Noah Brown | 5 | 6 | 60 | 0 |
| Olamide Zaccheaus | 2 | 2 | 48 | 0 |
| Austin Ekeler | 3 | 4 | 41 | 0 |
| Dyami Brown | 1 | 1 | 24 | 0 |
| Terry McLaurin | 2 | 3 | 19 | 2 |
| Ben Sinnott | 1 | 1 | 12 | 0 |
| Zach Ertz | 1 | 1 | 5 | 0 |
| Jeremy McNichols | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Giants
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Daniel Jones | 20/26 | 174 | 2 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tyrone Tracy Jr. | 16 | 66 | 4.1 | 0 |
| Daniel Jones | 7 | 54 | 7.7 | 1 |
| Devin Singletary | 7 | 33 | 4.7 | 0 |
| Darius Slayton | 1 | 11 | 11.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Malik Nabers | 9 | 11 | 59 | 0 |
| Theo Johnson | 3 | 6 | 51 | 1 |
| Darius Slayton | 3 | 3 | 49 | 0 |
| Wan'Dale Robinson | 3 | 4 | 10 | 0 |
| Tyrone Tracy Jr. | 1 | 1 | 3 | 0 |
| Chris Manhertz | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Giants; negative favour Commanders.
Half-point at risk
2.52%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
44.0%
Expected total
44.6est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-3.48
- Home-field advantage+1.71
- Quarterback adjustment-0.05
- Rest differential-0.08
- Expected margin-1.90