2024 · Week 9 · Division

Final

Commanders

Washington

QB Marcus Mariota

27·22

Giants

New York

QB Daniel Jones

MetLife Stadium · outdoors · fieldturf · 52°F · wind 6mph

Closing spread

WAS -4.5

Total

44.5

Model margin

-1.9est.

NYG perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Commanders

Giants

Win probability

  • Giants
  • Commanders

How each play moved the game.

Giants winsCommanders wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Commandersedge mapGiants
  • +0.138EPA / play-0.088
  • 48.1%Success rate41.1%
  • +0.211EPA / dropback-0.073
  • +0.027EPA / rush-0.116
  • 8.5%Explosive rate6.8%
  • +4.57CPOE-1.45
  • 45.9%Third-down rate36.0%
  • 67.2%Red-zone TD rate47.5%
  • 2.78Points / drive1.28
  • 1.2%Turnover rate2.0%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

NYG lead 32–21–2 since 1999

Meetings average 40.1 points. NYG are 29-24-2 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2026 · W5NYG @ WAS27–27Tie
2025 · W15WAS @ NYG29–21WAS
2025 · W1NYG @ WAS6–21WAS
2024 · W2NYG @ WAS18–21WAS
2023 · W11NYG @ WAS31–19NYG
2023 · W7WAS @ NYG7–14NYG
2022 · W15NYG @ WAS20–12NYG
2022 · W13WAS @ NYG20–20Tie

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultWAS–NYG
NYGQ1 15:0038Punt0–0
WASQ1 12:5435Punt0–0
NYGQ1 11:35655Turnover0–0
WASQ1 8:1549Touchdown7–0
NYGQ1 7:041669Touchdown7–7
WASQ2 12:211170Touchdown14–7
NYGQ2 6:2132Punt14–7
WASQ2 5:191397Touchdown21–7
NYGQ2 0:0600End of half21–7
WASQ3 15:0032Punt21–7
NYGQ3 14:041661Field goal21–10
WASQ3 5:27957Field goal24–10
NYGQ3 0:331472Touchdown24–16
WASQ4 9:251063Field goal27–16
NYGQ4 3:46559Touchdown27–22
WASQ4 2:48657End of half27–22

Box score

Individual performances

Commanders

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Jayden Daniels15/2220920

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Chris Rodriguez Jr.11524.70
Austin Ekeler11423.81
Jayden Daniels8354.40
Jeremy McNichols8202.50

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Noah Brown56600
Olamide Zaccheaus22480
Austin Ekeler34410
Dyami Brown11240
Terry McLaurin23192
Ben Sinnott11120
Zach Ertz1150
Jeremy McNichols0100

Giants

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Daniel Jones20/2617420

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Tyrone Tracy Jr.16664.10
Daniel Jones7547.71
Devin Singletary7334.70
Darius Slayton11111.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Malik Nabers911590
Theo Johnson36511
Darius Slayton33490
Wan'Dale Robinson34100
Tyrone Tracy Jr.1130
Chris Manhertz1121

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line -4.52.9%4.7%3.1%7.5%7.1%2.7%4.1%

Positive margins favour Giants; negative favour Commanders.

Half-point at risk

2.52%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

44.0%

Expected total

44.6est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-3.48
  • Home-field advantage+1.71
  • Quarterback adjustment-0.05
  • Rest differential-0.08
  • Expected margin-1.90