Closing spread
CHI -7
Total
39.5
Model margin
+3.9est.
CHI perspective
Push chance
4.9%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Bears
- Cardinals
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.028EPA / play-0.063
- 39.3%Success rate39.4%
- +0.073EPA / dropback-0.033
- -0.182EPA / rush-0.099
- 8.5%Explosive rate7.6%
- 28.9%Third-down rate33.3%
- 48.3%Red-zone TD rate52.2%
- 1.12Points / drive1.28
- 2.4%Turnover rate2.1%
- +0.014EPA / play allowed-0.146
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
CHI lead 6–4 since 1999
Meetings average 45.1 points. CHI are 3-6-1 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Cardinals
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jake Plummer | 20/37 | 216 | 1 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Michael Pittman | 16 | 50 | 3.1 | 0 |
| Thomas Jones | 6 | 14 | 2.3 | 0 |
| David Boston | 1 | 11 | 11.0 | 0 |
| Jake Plummer | 2 | 7 | 3.5 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| David Boston | 6 | 11 | 85 | 0 |
| Frank Sanders | 3 | 6 | 47 | 1 |
| Michael Pittman | 5 | 6 | 25 | 0 |
| MarTay Jenkins | 1 | 4 | 22 | 0 |
| Thomas Jones | 2 | 2 | 17 | 0 |
| Terry Hardy | 1 | 4 | 10 | 0 |
| Tywan Mitchell | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
Bears
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jim Miller | 15/21 | 116 | 0 | 2 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| James Allen | 18 | 75 | 4.2 | 1 |
| Anthony Thomas | 11 | 58 | 5.3 | 0 |
| Jim Miller | 2 | 3 | 1.5 | 0 |
| Glyn Milburn | 1 | 1 | 1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Marty Booker | 5 | 7 | 48 | 0 |
| John Davis | 3 | 4 | 26 | 0 |
| Dez White | 1 | 2 | 18 | 0 |
| James Allen | 2 | 2 | 11 | 0 |
| David Terrell | 2 | 2 | 7 | 0 |
| Marcus Robinson | 2 | 4 | 6 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Bears; negative favour Cardinals.
Half-point at risk
4.87%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
59.5%
Expected total
42.8est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+1.36
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+3.92