2001 · Week 5

Final

Cardinals

Arizona

QB Jake Plummer

13·20

Bears

Chicago

QB Jim Miller

Soldier Field · outdoors · grass · 54°F · wind 9mph

Closing spread

CHI -7

Total

39.5

Model margin

+3.9est.

CHI perspective

Push chance

4.9%est.

the line sits on a key number

Win probability

  • Bears
  • Cardinals

How each play moved the game.

Bears winsCardinals wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Cardinalsedge mapBears
  • -0.028EPA / play-0.063
  • 39.3%Success rate39.4%
  • +0.073EPA / dropback-0.033
  • -0.182EPA / rush-0.099
  • 8.5%Explosive rate7.6%
  • 28.9%Third-down rate33.3%
  • 48.3%Red-zone TD rate52.2%
  • 1.12Points / drive1.28
  • 2.4%Turnover rate2.1%
  • +0.014EPA / play allowed-0.146

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

CHI lead 6–4 since 1999

Meetings average 45.1 points. CHI are 3-6-1 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2024 · W9CHI @ ARI9–29ARI
2023 · W16ARI @ CHI16–27CHI
2021 · W13ARI @ CHI33–22ARI
2018 · W3CHI @ ARI16–14CHI
2015 · W2ARI @ CHI48–23ARI
2012 · W16CHI @ ARI28–13CHI
2009 · W9ARI @ CHI41–21ARI
2006 · W6CHI @ ARI24–23CHI

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultARI–CHI
ARIQ1 15:001135Punt0–0
CHIQ1 10:141266Field goal0–3
ARIQ1 2:42958Field goal3–3
CHIQ2 13:23969Touchdown3–10
ARIQ2 7:493-2Punt3–10
CHIQ2 6:37512Turnover3–10
ARIQ2 4:3337Field goal6–10
CHIQ2 3:18853Field goal6–13
CHIQ3 15:0000Punt6–13
ARIQ3 14:45513Punt6–13
CHIQ3 12:48715Punt6–13
ARIQ3 9:35423Opp touchdown6–20
CHIQ3 7:3300Opp touchdown6–20
ARIQ3 7:33742Punt6–20
CHIQ3 3:5136Punt6–20
ARIQ3 2:1138Punt6–20
CHIQ3 0:0000Turnover6–20
CHIQ4 15:004-4Turnover6–20
ARIQ4 13:0936Punt6–20
CHIQ4 12:11532Punt6–20
ARIQ4 8:571399Touchdown13–20
CHIQ4 2:5244Punt13–20
ARIQ4 1:023-1End of half13–20

Box score

Individual performances

Cardinals

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Jake Plummer20/3721610

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Michael Pittman16503.10
Thomas Jones6142.30
David Boston11111.00
Jake Plummer273.50

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
David Boston611850
Frank Sanders36471
Michael Pittman56250
MarTay Jenkins14220
Thomas Jones22170
Terry Hardy14100
Tywan Mitchell0200

Bears

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Jim Miller15/2111602

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
James Allen18754.21
Anthony Thomas11585.30
Jim Miller231.50
Glyn Milburn111.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Marty Booker57480
John Davis34260
Dez White12180
James Allen22110
David Terrell2270
Marcus Robinson2460

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +73.7%6.7%7.5%3.2%4.9%3.2%2.9%

Positive margins favour Bears; negative favour Cardinals.

Half-point at risk

4.87%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

59.5%

Expected total

42.8est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+1.36
  • Home-field advantage+2.56
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+3.92