Closing spread
CIN -1.5
Total
35
Model margin
+4.3est.
CIN perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Bengals
- Browns
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.113EPA / play-0.090
- 36.9%Success rate39.0%
- -0.086EPA / dropback-0.080
- -0.148EPA / rush-0.106
- 7.1%Explosive rate6.9%
- 31.3%Third-down rate37.7%
- 47.3%Red-zone TD rate46.6%
- 1.05Points / drive0.98
- 3.1%Turnover rate3.1%
- -0.096EPA / play allowed-0.112
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
CIN lead 32–22 since 1999
Meetings average 42.7 points. CIN are 29-24-1 ATS in the series.
Possession by possession
How it unfolded
Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.
| Ball | Start | Plays | Yards | Result | CLE–CIN |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CIN | Q1 15:00 | 14 | 51 | Field goal | 0–3 |
| CLE | Q1 9:28 | 8 | 25 | Punt | 0–3 |
| CIN | Q1 5:24 | 3 | 9 | Punt | 6–3 |
| CLE | Q1 3:18 | 1 | 30 | Touchdown | 7–3 |
| CIN | Q1 3:10 | 7 | 60 | Turnover on downs | 7–3 |
| CLE | Q1 0:00 | 0 | 0 | Punt | 7–3 |
| CLE | Q2 15:00 | 3 | 5 | Punt | 7–3 |
| CIN | Q2 13:33 | 4 | 11 | Punt | 7–3 |
| CLE | Q2 11:20 | 3 | 0 | Punt | 7–3 |
| CIN | Q2 10:15 | 3 | 7 | Punt | 7–3 |
| CLE | Q2 8:46 | 3 | 4 | Punt | 7–3 |
| CIN | Q2 6:46 | 3 | 4 | Punt | 7–3 |
| CLE | Q2 5:10 | 6 | 22 | Punt | 7–3 |
| CIN | Q2 1:05 | 8 | 31 | Missed field goal | 7–3 |
| CLE | Q2 0:05 | 1 | -1 | End of half | 7–3 |
| CLE | Q3 15:00 | 4 | 1 | Punt | 7–3 |
| CIN | Q3 13:23 | 10 | 56 | Touchdown | 7–10 |
| CLE | Q3 9:35 | 1 | 0 | Turnover | 7–10 |
| CIN | Q3 9:21 | 6 | 21 | Field goal | 7–13 |
| CLE | Q3 6:28 | 4 | 25 | Punt | 7–13 |
| CIN | Q3 3:52 | 9 | 80 | Touchdown | 7–21 |
| CLE | Q4 14:17 | 12 | 35 | Punt | 7–21 |
| CIN | Q4 9:20 | 15 | 71 | Field goal | 7–24 |
| CLE | Q4 1:55 | 8 | 65 | Touchdown | 14–24 |
| CIN | Q4 0:36 | 1 | -1 | End of half | 14–24 |
Box score
Individual performances
Browns
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tim Couch | 14/28 | 194 | 2 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| James Jackson | 14 | 22 | 1.6 | 0 |
| Jamel White | 3 | 19 | 6.3 | 0 |
| Tim Couch | 2 | -1 | -0.5 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kevin Johnson | 8 | 11 | 153 | 1 |
| Jamel White | 3 | 4 | 27 | 0 |
| Quincy Morgan | 1 | 8 | 6 | 0 |
| JaJuan Dawson | 1 | 3 | 5 | 0 |
| Mike Sellers | 1 | 1 | 3 | 1 |
| O.J. Santiago | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Bengals
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jon Kitna | 20/38 | 201 | 1 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Corey Dillon | 31 | 140 | 4.5 | 1 |
| Brandon Bennett | 7 | 41 | 5.9 | 0 |
| Jon Kitna | 4 | 18 | 4.5 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Peter Warrick | 4 | 9 | 73 | 0 |
| Chad Johnson | 5 | 8 | 68 | 0 |
| Brandon Bennett | 2 | 2 | 18 | 0 |
| Corey Dillon | 3 | 3 | 16 | 0 |
| Darnay Scott | 1 | 6 | 5 | 1 |
| Ron Dugans | 1 | 2 | 5 | 0 |
| Marco Battaglia | 1 | 2 | 3 | 0 |
| Tony McGee | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Bengals; negative favour Browns.
Half-point at risk
2.11%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
60.5%
Expected total
41.8est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+1.74
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+4.30