Closing spread
DEN -6
Total
44
Model margin
+5.6est.
SEA perspective
Push chance
2.3%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Seahawks
- Broncos
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.044EPA / play-0.018
- 42.2%Success rate38.9%
- -0.020EPA / dropback+0.031
- -0.075EPA / rush-0.080
- 6.2%Explosive rate8.3%
- 37.7%Third-down rate36.1%
- 55.8%Red-zone TD rate55.9%
- 1.49Points / drive1.20
- 2.4%Turnover rate1.9%
- -0.038EPA / play allowed+0.002
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
All square 7–7 since 1999
SEA have won 2 straight. Meetings average 47.4 points. SEA are 6-7-1 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Broncos
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brian Griese | 24/36 | 209 | 2 | 3 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mike Anderson | 17 | 51 | 3.0 | 0 |
| Brian Griese | 2 | 38 | 19.0 | 0 |
| Olandis Gary | 1 | 3 | 3.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Eddie Kennison | 6 | 7 | 84 | 1 |
| Rod Smith | 6 | 10 | 43 | 1 |
| Desmond Clark | 2 | 3 | 17 | 0 |
| Tony Carter | 2 | 2 | 14 | 0 |
| Mike Anderson | 2 | 3 | 9 | 0 |
| Matt Dominguez | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 |
| Patrick Hape | 1 | 3 | 0 | 0 |
Seahawks
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Trent Dilfer | 12/18 | 110 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Shaun Alexander | 33 | 142 | 4.3 | 2 |
| Jay Graham | 2 | 8 | 4.0 | 0 |
| Trent Dilfer | 1 | 6 | 6.0 | 0 |
| Matt Hasselbeck | 3 | -2 | -0.7 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Darrell Jackson | 4 | 6 | 38 | 0 |
| Shaun Alexander | 2 | 3 | 24 | 0 |
| Koren Robinson | 2 | 2 | 21 | 0 |
| Christian Fauria | 1 | 2 | 12 | 0 |
| Bobby Engram | 1 | 1 | 6 | 0 |
| Alex Bannister | 1 | 2 | 4 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Seahawks; negative favour Broncos.
Half-point at risk
2.29%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
64.0%
Expected total
45.4est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.05
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment+3.03
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+5.64