2001 · Week 5 · Division

Final

Broncos

Denver

QB Brian Griese

21·34

Seahawks

Seattle

QB Trent Dilfer

Husky Stadium · outdoors · fieldturf · 54°F · wind 7mph

Closing spread

DEN -6

Total

44

Model margin

+5.6est.

SEA perspective

Push chance

2.3%est.

the line sits on a key number

Win probability

  • Seahawks
  • Broncos

How each play moved the game.

Seahawks winsBroncos wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Broncosedge mapSeahawks
  • -0.044EPA / play-0.018
  • 42.2%Success rate38.9%
  • -0.020EPA / dropback+0.031
  • -0.075EPA / rush-0.080
  • 6.2%Explosive rate8.3%
  • 37.7%Third-down rate36.1%
  • 55.8%Red-zone TD rate55.9%
  • 1.49Points / drive1.20
  • 2.4%Turnover rate1.9%
  • -0.038EPA / play allowed+0.002

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

DEN lead 8–7 since 1999

Meetings average 46.3 points. SEA are 6-8-1 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2026 · W6SEA @ DEN14–17DEN
2024 · W1DEN @ SEA20–26SEA
2022 · W1DEN @ SEA16–17SEA
2018 · W1SEA @ DEN24–27DEN
2014 · W3DEN @ SEA20–26SEA
2013 · playoffsSEA @ DEN43–8SEA
2010 · W2SEA @ DEN14–31DEN
2006 · W13SEA @ DEN23–20SEA

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultDEN–SEA
SEAQ1 15:00686Touchdown0–7
DENQ1 11:5439Punt0–7
SEAQ1 9:51726Field goal0–10
DENQ1 5:41512Punt0–10
SEAQ1 3:063-4Punt0–10
DENQ1 2:0658Opp touchdown0–17
SEAQ2 14:4800Opp touchdown0–17
DENQ2 14:48715Punt0–17
SEAQ2 11:3940Punt0–17
DENQ2 9:21659Touchdown7–17
SEAQ2 6:18830Touchdown7–24
DENQ2 3:141262Touchdown14–24
SEAQ2 0:0910End of half14–24
DENQ3 15:003-6Punt14–24
SEAQ3 13:371161Turnover14–24
DENQ3 9:03628Opp touchdown14–31
SEAQ3 5:3400Opp touchdown14–31
DENQ3 5:34848Turnover14–31
SEAQ3 2:151232Field goal14–34
DENQ4 11:211246Turnover14–34
SEAQ4 6:53925Opp touchdown21–34
SEAQ4 1:403-2End of half21–34

Box score

Individual performances

Broncos

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Brian Griese24/3620923

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Mike Anderson17513.00
Brian Griese23819.00
Olandis Gary133.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Eddie Kennison67841
Rod Smith610431
Desmond Clark23170
Tony Carter22140
Mike Anderson2390
Matt Dominguez1120
Patrick Hape1300

Seahawks

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Trent Dilfer12/1811000

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Shaun Alexander331424.32
Jay Graham284.00
Trent Dilfer166.00
Matt Hasselbeck3-2-0.70

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Darrell Jackson46380
Shaun Alexander23240
Koren Robinson22210
Christian Fauria12120
Bobby Engram1160
Alex Bannister1240

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line -63.4%6.3%7.4%3.2%5.0%

Positive margins favour Seahawks; negative favour Broncos.

Half-point at risk

2.29%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

64.0%

Expected total

45.4est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.05
  • Home-field advantage+2.56
  • Quarterback adjustment+3.03
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+5.64