Closing spread
MIN -10
Total
44
Model margin
+3.6est.
MIN perspective
Push chance
3.1%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Vikings
- Lions
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.101EPA / play-0.050
- 39.1%Success rate42.2%
- -0.060EPA / dropback-0.012
- -0.192EPA / rush-0.133
- 7.8%Explosive rate7.6%
- 33.9%Third-down rate42.5%
- 47.0%Red-zone TD rate49.2%
- 0.89Points / drive1.40
- 3.4%Turnover rate3.7%
- +0.064EPA / play allowed+0.044
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
MIN lead 36–19 since 1999
Meetings average 44.3 points. MIN are 25-26-4 ATS in the series.
Possession by possession
How it unfolded
Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.
| Ball | Start | Plays | Yards | Result | DET–MIN |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MIN | Q1 15:00 | 11 | 70 | Touchdown | 0–7 |
| DET | Q1 8:29 | 8 | 75 | Field goal | 3–7 |
| MIN | Q1 3:59 | 10 | 51 | Touchdown | 3–14 |
| DET | Q2 14:46 | 4 | 11 | Turnover | 3–14 |
| MIN | Q2 13:16 | 6 | 14 | Field goal | 3–17 |
| DET | Q2 10:42 | 8 | 24 | Field goal | 6–17 |
| MIN | Q2 7:23 | 5 | 20 | Punt | 6–17 |
| DET | Q2 4:00 | 5 | 12 | Punt | 6–17 |
| MIN | Q2 0:59 | 5 | 61 | Touchdown | 6–24 |
| DET | Q2 0:25 | 3 | 21 | Missed field goal | 6–24 |
| DET | Q3 15:00 | 7 | 43 | Punt | 6–24 |
| MIN | Q3 11:37 | 4 | 40 | Touchdown | 6–31 |
| DET | Q3 10:25 | 11 | 64 | Touchdown | 13–31 |
| MIN | Q3 5:40 | 6 | 21 | Punt | 13–31 |
| DET | Q3 1:43 | 6 | 59 | Touchdown | 19–31 |
| MIN | Q4 14:20 | 6 | 30 | Turnover | 19–31 |
| DET | Q4 10:19 | 12 | 88 | Touchdown | 26–31 |
| MIN | Q4 6:18 | 10 | 36 | Punt | 26–31 |
| DET | Q4 1:34 | 7 | 60 | End of half | 26–31 |
Box score
Individual performances
Lions
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Charlie Batch | 31/41 | 345 | 3 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| James Stewart | 16 | 108 | 6.8 | 0 |
| Lamont Warren | 2 | 18 | 9.0 | 0 |
| Charlie Batch | 1 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Germane Crowell | 9 | 11 | 125 | 1 |
| Johnnie Morton | 5 | 6 | 68 | 1 |
| David Sloan | 4 | 6 | 63 | 0 |
| James Stewart | 3 | 3 | 22 | 1 |
| Larry Foster | 2 | 4 | 20 | 0 |
| Lamont Warren | 2 | 2 | 12 | 0 |
| Desmond Howard | 1 | 1 | 9 | 0 |
| Pete Mitchell | 1 | 1 | 4 | 0 |
Vikings
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Daunte Culpepper | 20/27 | 244 | 1 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Daunte Culpepper | 7 | 83 | 11.9 | 2 |
| Michael Bennett | 13 | 46 | 3.5 | 0 |
| Doug Chapman | 4 | 12 | 3.0 | 0 |
| Jimmy Kleinsasser | 1 | 2 | 2.0 | 0 |
| Travis Prentice | 2 | 2 | 1.0 | 1 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cris Carter | 8 | 9 | 111 | 1 |
| Randy Moss | 6 | 11 | 78 | 0 |
| Jake Reed | 2 | 2 | 23 | 0 |
| Byron Chamberlain | 2 | 2 | 20 | 0 |
| Doug Chapman | 1 | 1 | 8 | 0 |
| Michael Bennett | 1 | 1 | 4 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Vikings; negative favour Lions.
Half-point at risk
3.13%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
58.7%
Expected total
44.0est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.97
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential+0.08
- Expected margin+3.62