Closing spread
MIA -3
Total
38
Model margin
+1.7est.
NYJ perspective
Push chance
7.1%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Jets
- Dolphins
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.023EPA / play-0.031
- 41.2%Success rate41.1%
- +0.068EPA / dropback+0.011
- -0.134EPA / rush-0.079
- 7.6%Explosive rate10.9%
- 41.1%Third-down rate37.4%
- 49.5%Red-zone TD rate48.1%
- 1.31Points / drive1.16
- 3.4%Turnover rate2.0%
- -0.050EPA / play allowed-0.047
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
MIA lead 29–26 since 1999
MIA have won 3 straight. Meetings average 40.9 points. NYJ are 28-24-3 ATS in the series.
Possession by possession
How it unfolded
Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.
| Ball | Start | Plays | Yards | Result | MIA–NYJ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MIA | Q1 15:00 | 14 | 60 | Turnover | 0–0 |
| NYJ | Q1 6:11 | 5 | 11 | Punt | 0–0 |
| MIA | Q1 3:00 | 4 | 49 | Touchdown | 7–0 |
| NYJ | Q1 0:50 | 5 | 6 | Punt | 7–0 |
| MIA | Q2 13:30 | 8 | 74 | Touchdown | 14–0 |
| NYJ | Q2 9:24 | 6 | 10 | Punt | 14–0 |
| MIA | Q2 6:56 | 14 | 67 | Field goal | 17–0 |
| NYJ | Q3 15:00 | 7 | 78 | Touchdown | 17–7 |
| MIA | Q3 11:32 | 1 | -3 | Turnover | 17–13 |
| NYJ | Q3 11:13 | 1 | 27 | Touchdown | 17–14 |
| MIA | Q3 11:04 | 6 | 16 | Punt | 17–14 |
| NYJ | Q3 7:25 | 12 | 40 | Missed field goal | 17–14 |
| MIA | Q3 1:37 | 3 | 6 | Punt | 17–14 |
| NYJ | Q3 0:32 | 7 | 71 | Touchdown | 17–21 |
| MIA | Q4 12:08 | 6 | 31 | Punt | 17–21 |
| NYJ | Q4 8:50 | 8 | 21 | Punt | 17–21 |
| MIA | Q4 4:20 | 8 | 51 | Turnover | 17–21 |
| NYJ | Q4 1:10 | 3 | 5 | Punt | 17–21 |
| MIA | Q4 0:46 | 2 | -3 | Turnover | 17–21 |
| NYJ | Q4 0:28 | 0 | 0 | End of half | 17–21 |
Box score
Individual performances
Dolphins
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jay Fiedler | 23/34 | 213 | 1 | 2 |
| Ray Lucas | 1/1 | 28 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lamar Smith | 24 | 54 | 2.3 | 0 |
| Travis Minor | 1 | 29 | 29.0 | 1 |
| Jay Fiedler | 2 | 27 | 13.5 | 0 |
| James McKnight | 1 | 3 | 3.0 | 0 |
| Ray Lucas | 1 | 2 | 2.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oronde Gadsden | 6 | 7 | 73 | 0 |
| Chris Chambers | 3 | 5 | 53 | 0 |
| Travis Minor | 2 | 3 | 35 | 0 |
| Lamar Smith | 6 | 7 | 23 | 1 |
| Dedric Ward | 2 | 5 | 17 | 0 |
| Hunter Goodwin | 2 | 4 | 14 | 0 |
| James McKnight | 1 | 1 | 13 | 0 |
| Jed Weaver | 2 | 2 | 13 | 0 |
Jets
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Vinny Testaverde | 15/22 | 168 | 2 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Curtis Martin | 22 | 120 | 5.5 | 1 |
| Vinny Testaverde | 1 | -1 | -1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Laveranues Coles | 5 | 6 | 77 | 2 |
| Wayne Chrebet | 3 | 5 | 34 | 0 |
| Anthony Becht | 4 | 5 | 31 | 0 |
| Curtis Martin | 2 | 2 | 16 | 0 |
| James Dearth | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Kevin Swayne | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Jets; negative favour Dolphins.
Half-point at risk
7.12%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
53.6%
Expected total
45.3est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.89
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+1.67