Closing spread
STL -10.5
Total
45
Model margin
+2.7est.
STL perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Rams
- Giants
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
The rivalry
STL lead 8–7 since 1999
RAMS have won 5 straight. Meetings average 46.7 points. STL are 5-10 ATS in the series.
Possession by possession
How it unfolded
Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.
| Ball | Start | Plays | Yards | Result | NYG–STL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NYG | Q1 15:00 | 6 | 80 | Touchdown | 7–0 |
| LA | Q1 12:06 | 10 | 73 | Field goal | 7–3 |
| NYG | Q1 7:58 | 6 | 39 | Punt | 7–3 |
| LA | Q1 4:44 | 7 | 50 | Field goal | 7–6 |
| NYG | Q1 0:44 | 6 | 41 | Punt | 7–6 |
| LA | Q2 12:24 | 4 | -2 | Punt | 7–6 |
| NYG | Q2 10:48 | 4 | 14 | Punt | 7–6 |
| LA | Q2 9:22 | 3 | 5 | Punt | 7–6 |
| NYG | Q2 7:46 | 12 | 51 | Missed field goal | 7–6 |
| LA | Q2 1:44 | 7 | 48 | Field goal | 7–9 |
| LA | Q3 15:00 | 3 | 5 | Turnover | 7–9 |
| NYG | Q3 13:56 | 3 | -1 | Punt | 7–9 |
| LA | Q3 12:55 | 4 | 13 | Turnover | 7–9 |
| NYG | Q3 10:52 | 1 | 0 | Turnover | 7–9 |
| LA | Q3 10:40 | 5 | 19 | Punt | 7–9 |
| NYG | Q3 8:17 | 3 | 3 | Punt | 7–9 |
| LA | Q3 6:45 | 4 | 21 | Punt | 7–9 |
| NYG | Q3 3:37 | 5 | 21 | Punt | 7–9 |
| LA | Q3 0:43 | 1 | 0 | Turnover | 7–9 |
| NYG | Q3 0:33 | 4 | 34 | Touchdown | 14–9 |
| LA | Q4 13:33 | 7 | 28 | Turnover | 14–9 |
| NYG | Q4 9:49 | 3 | 9 | Punt | 14–9 |
| LA | Q4 8:34 | 13 | 54 | Touchdown | 14–15 |
| NYG | Q4 4:16 | 3 | 9 | Punt | 14–15 |
| LA | Q4 2:33 | 3 | 3 | Punt | 14–15 |
| NYG | Q4 1:51 | 3 | 24 | Turnover | 14–15 |
| LA | Q4 1:03 | 2 | -2 | End of half | 14–15 |
Box score
Individual performances
Giants
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kerry Collins | 17/32 | 242 | 1 | 2 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ron Dayne | 20 | 88 | 4.4 | 1 |
| Kerry Collins | 2 | 11 | 5.5 | 0 |
| Damon Washington | 2 | -2 | -1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Joe Jurevicius | 5 | 8 | 93 | 0 |
| Amani Toomer | 3 | 11 | 61 | 0 |
| Ike Hilliard | 3 | 4 | 49 | 1 |
| Greg Comella | 3 | 3 | 23 | 0 |
| Ron Dayne | 1 | 1 | 9 | 0 |
| Damon Washington | 2 | 4 | 7 | 0 |
| Thabiti Davis | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Rams; negative favour Giants.
Half-point at risk
1.43%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
56.2%
Expected total
44.3est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.18
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential-0.08
- Expected margin+2.66
One or both ratings are carry-over priors — no games have been played this season yet, so treat this as a starting assumption rather than a read.