Closing spread
STL -10.5
Total
45
Model margin
+2.7est.
STL perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Rams
- Giants
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
The rivalry
All square 7–7 since 1999
RAMS have won 4 straight. Meetings average 47.6 points. STL are 4-10 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Giants
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kerry Collins | 17/32 | 242 | 1 | 2 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ron Dayne | 20 | 88 | 4.4 | 1 |
| Kerry Collins | 2 | 11 | 5.5 | 0 |
| Damon Washington | 2 | -2 | -1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Joe Jurevicius | 5 | 8 | 93 | 0 |
| Amani Toomer | 3 | 11 | 61 | 0 |
| Ike Hilliard | 3 | 4 | 49 | 1 |
| Greg Comella | 3 | 3 | 23 | 0 |
| Ron Dayne | 1 | 1 | 9 | 0 |
| Damon Washington | 2 | 4 | 7 | 0 |
| Thabiti Davis | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Rams; negative favour Giants.
Half-point at risk
1.43%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
56.2%
Expected total
44.3est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.18
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential-0.08
- Expected margin+2.66
One or both ratings are carry-over priors — no games have been played this season yet, so treat this as a starting assumption rather than a read.