Closing spread
STL -7
Total
43.5
Model margin
+2.7est.
STL perspective
Push chance
4.8%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Rams
- Giants
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
The rivalry
All square 7–7 since 1999
RAMS have won 4 straight. Meetings average 47.6 points. STL are 4-10 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Giants
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Eli Manning | 25/32 | 391 | 3 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Andre Williams | 26 | 110 | 4.2 | 0 |
| Orleans Darkwa | 4 | 21 | 5.3 | 1 |
| Odell Beckham Jr. | 1 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 |
| Eli Manning | 3 | -3 | -1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Odell Beckham Jr. | 8 | 12 | 148 | 2 |
| Rueben Randle | 6 | 6 | 132 | 1 |
| Larry Donnell | 4 | 5 | 42 | 0 |
| Preston Parker | 3 | 3 | 32 | 0 |
| Daniel Fells | 2 | 3 | 20 | 0 |
| Orleans Darkwa | 2 | 2 | 17 | 0 |
| Andre Williams | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Rams; negative favour Giants.
Half-point at risk
4.76%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
56.3%
Expected total
44.2est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.04
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential+0.24
- Expected margin+2.68
One or both ratings are carry-over priors — no games have been played this season yet, so treat this as a starting assumption rather than a read.