Closing spread
STL -7
Total
43.5
Model margin
+2.7est.
STL perspective
Push chance
4.8%est.
the line sits on a key number
Availability
The injury report
The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.
Giants
- OutRashad JenningsRBAnkle· DNP
- ProbableJameel McClainLBKnee· Full
Rams
- ProbableChris LongDEAnkle· DNP
- ProbableDavin JosephGNot Injury Related· Full
- ProbableScott WellsCNot Injury Related· Full
Win probability
- Rams
- Giants
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
The rivalry
STL lead 8–7 since 1999
RAMS have won 5 straight. Meetings average 46.7 points. STL are 5-10 ATS in the series.
Possession by possession
How it unfolded
Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.
| Ball | Start | Plays | Yards | Result | NYG–STL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NYG | Q1 15:00 | 7 | 69 | Field goal | 3–0 |
| LA | Q1 10:41 | 0 | 0 | Touchdown | 3–0 |
| NYG | Q1 10:34 | 6 | 31 | Touchdown | 10–0 |
| LA | Q1 8:24 | 5 | 15 | Field goal | 10–3 |
| NYG | Q1 4:52 | 5 | 17 | Punt | 10–3 |
| LA | Q1 1:39 | 2 | 16 | Turnover | 10–3 |
| NYG | Q1 0:54 | 7 | 47 | Field goal | 13–3 |
| LA | Q2 12:39 | 4 | 24 | Punt | 13–3 |
| NYG | Q2 10:27 | 10 | 68 | Touchdown | 20–3 |
| LA | Q2 4:49 | 6 | 43 | Touchdown | 20–10 |
| NYG | Q2 2:18 | 3 | 16 | Punt | 20–10 |
| LA | Q2 1:36 | 8 | 58 | Field goal | 20–13 |
| LA | Q3 15:00 | 7 | 21 | Punt | 20–13 |
| NYG | Q3 11:27 | 8 | 83 | Touchdown | 27–13 |
| LA | Q3 7:29 | 11 | 100 | Touchdown | 27–20 |
| NYG | Q3 1:44 | 3 | 80 | Touchdown | 34–20 |
| LA | Q3 0:45 | 5 | 19 | Punt | 34–20 |
| NYG | Q4 13:30 | 10 | 61 | Field goal | 37–20 |
| LA | Q4 8:29 | 7 | 30 | Punt | 37–20 |
| NYG | Q4 6:57 | 3 | 4 | Punt | 37–20 |
| LA | Q4 5:14 | 5 | 61 | Touchdown | 37–27 |
| NYG | Q4 3:56 | 6 | 41 | Missed field goal | 37–27 |
| LA | Q4 2:00 | 1 | 0 | Turnover | 37–27 |
| NYG | Q4 1:53 | 0 | 0 | End of half | 37–27 |
Box score
Individual performances
Giants
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Eli Manning | 25/32 | 391 | 3 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Andre Williams | 26 | 110 | 4.2 | 0 |
| Orleans Darkwa | 4 | 21 | 5.3 | 1 |
| Odell Beckham Jr. | 1 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 |
| Eli Manning | 3 | -3 | -1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Odell Beckham Jr. | 8 | 12 | 148 | 2 |
| Rueben Randle | 6 | 6 | 132 | 1 |
| Larry Donnell | 4 | 5 | 42 | 0 |
| Preston Parker | 3 | 3 | 32 | 0 |
| Daniel Fells | 2 | 3 | 20 | 0 |
| Orleans Darkwa | 2 | 2 | 17 | 0 |
| Andre Williams | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Rams; negative favour Giants.
Half-point at risk
4.76%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
56.3%
Expected total
44.2est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.04
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential+0.24
- Expected margin+2.68
One or both ratings are carry-over priors — no games have been played this season yet, so treat this as a starting assumption rather than a read.