Closing spread
LA -13.5
Total
49.5
Model margin
+4.4est.
LA perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Rams
- Giants
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.057EPA / play-0.013
- 42.1%Success rate44.6%
- -0.051EPA / dropback+0.032
- -0.067EPA / rush-0.081
- 7.5%Explosive rate9.2%
- -2.04CPOE+0.37
- 35.1%Third-down rate44.2%
- 51.7%Red-zone TD rate59.0%
- 1.57Points / drive1.76
- 2.1%Turnover rate2.1%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
All square 7–7 since 1999
RAMS have won 4 straight. Meetings average 47.6 points. LA are 4-10 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Giants
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Daniel Jones | 23/36 | 190 | 0 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wayne Gallman | 6 | 45 | 7.5 | 0 |
| Daniel Jones | 6 | 45 | 7.5 | 0 |
| Devonta Freeman | 11 | 33 | 3.0 | 0 |
| Dion Lewis | 1 | 10 | 10.0 | 0 |
| C.J. Board | 1 | 3 | 3.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Darius Slayton | 3 | 7 | 48 | 0 |
| Devonta Freeman | 4 | 4 | 35 | 0 |
| Evan Engram | 6 | 10 | 35 | 0 |
| Damion Ratley | 3 | 4 | 34 | 0 |
| Golden Tate | 4 | 6 | 20 | 0 |
| Kaden Smith | 1 | 1 | 10 | 0 |
| Dion Lewis | 2 | 3 | 8 | 0 |
| C.J. Board | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Rams
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jared Goff | 25/32 | 200 | 1 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Malcolm Brown | 9 | 38 | 4.2 | 0 |
| Darrell Henderson | 8 | 21 | 2.6 | 0 |
| Robert Woods | 1 | 2 | 2.0 | 0 |
| Gerald Everett | 1 | 2 | 2.0 | 1 |
| Cooper Kupp | 1 | -2 | -2.0 | 0 |
| Jared Goff | 3 | -3 | -1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cooper Kupp | 5 | 7 | 69 | 1 |
| Robert Woods | 6 | 7 | 36 | 0 |
| Josh Reynolds | 3 | 4 | 25 | 0 |
| Tyler Higbee | 3 | 4 | 20 | 0 |
| Malcolm Brown | 5 | 6 | 19 | 0 |
| Darrell Henderson | 1 | 1 | 16 | 0 |
| Gerald Everett | 1 | 1 | 10 | 0 |
| Johnny Mundt | 1 | 1 | 5 | 0 |
| Van Jefferson | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Rams; negative favour Giants.
Half-point at risk
2.92%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
60.8%
Expected total
39.0est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+2.69
- Home-field advantage+1.71
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+4.39