2020 · Week 4

Final

Giants

New York

QB Daniel Jones

9·17

Rams

Los Angeles

QB Jared Goff

SoFi Stadium · dome · matrixturf

Closing spread

LA -13.5

Total

49.5

Model margin

+4.4est.

LA perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Giants

Rams

Win probability

  • Rams
  • Giants

How each play moved the game.

Rams winsGiants wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Giantsedge mapRams
  • -0.057EPA / play-0.013
  • 42.1%Success rate44.6%
  • -0.051EPA / dropback+0.032
  • -0.067EPA / rush-0.081
  • 7.5%Explosive rate9.2%
  • -2.04CPOE+0.37
  • 35.1%Third-down rate44.2%
  • 51.7%Red-zone TD rate59.0%
  • 1.57Points / drive1.76
  • 2.1%Turnover rate2.1%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

LA lead 8–7 since 1999

RAMS have won 5 straight. Meetings average 46.7 points. LA are 5-10 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2026 · W2NYG @ LA6–28RAMS
2023 · W17LA @ NYG26–25RAMS
2021 · W6LA @ NYG38–11RAMS
2017 · W9LA @ NYG51–17RAMS
2016 · W7NYG @ LA17–10NYG
2014 · W16NYG @ STL37–27NYG
2011 · W2STL @ NYG16–28NYG
2008 · W2NYG @ STL41–13NYG

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultNYG–LA
NYGQ1 15:003-9Punt0–0
LAQ1 13:201265Touchdown0–7
NYGQ1 6:1957Punt0–7
LAQ1 2:54110Turnover0–7
NYGQ1 2:45522Field goal3–7
LAQ2 14:513-6Punt3–7
NYGQ2 13:233-9Punt3–7
LAQ2 11:061447Field goal3–10
NYGQ2 3:521256Field goal6–10
LAQ3 15:00521Punt6–10
NYGQ3 12:35837Punt6–10
LAQ3 8:01510Punt6–10
NYGQ3 5:251158Field goal9–10
LAQ4 14:1134Punt9–10
NYGQ4 12:32432Punt9–10
LAQ4 9:46891Touchdown9–17
NYGQ4 6:561039Turnover on downs9–17
LAQ4 2:3331Punt9–17
NYGQ4 2:05762Turnover9–17
LAQ4 0:5200End of half9–17

Box score

Individual performances

Giants

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Daniel Jones23/3619001

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Wayne Gallman6457.50
Daniel Jones6457.50
Devonta Freeman11333.00
Dion Lewis11010.00
C.J. Board133.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Darius Slayton37480
Devonta Freeman44350
Evan Engram610350
Damion Ratley34340
Golden Tate46200
Kaden Smith11100
Dion Lewis2380
C.J. Board0100

Rams

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Jared Goff25/3220010

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Malcolm Brown9384.20
Darrell Henderson8212.60
Robert Woods122.00
Gerald Everett122.01
Cooper Kupp1-2-2.00
Jared Goff3-3-1.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Cooper Kupp57691
Robert Woods67360
Josh Reynolds34250
Tyler Higbee34200
Malcolm Brown56190
Darrell Henderson11160
Gerald Everett11100
Johnny Mundt1150
Van Jefferson0100

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +13.57.5%3.2%4.9%3.2%2.9%

Positive margins favour Rams; negative favour Giants.

Half-point at risk

2.92%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

60.8%

Expected total

39.0est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+2.69
  • Home-field advantage+1.71
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+4.39