Closing spread
LA -7
Total
48.5
Model margin
-8.9est.
LA perspective
Push chance
2.7%est.
the line sits on a key number
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.363EPA / play-0.226
- 59.1%Success rate43.3%
- +0.667EPA / dropback-0.270
- +0.059EPA / rush-0.171
- 6.1%Explosive rate6.7%
- +13.38CPOE-4.74
- 90.0%Third-down rate22.2%
- 80.0%Red-zone TD rate33.3%
- 3.97Points / drive0.69
- 1.5%Turnover rate3.3%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
All square 7–7 since 1999
RAMS have won 4 straight. Meetings average 47.6 points. LA are 4-10 ATS in the series.
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Rams; negative favour Giants.
Half-point at risk
2.67%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
26.5%
Expected total
52.8est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-11.38
- Home-field advantage+2.22
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential+0.24
- Expected margin-8.93