2026 · Week 2

Final

Giants

New York

QB Jaxson Dart

6·28

Rams

Los Angeles

QB Matthew Stafford

SoFi Stadium · dome · matrixturf

Closing spread

LA -6.5

Total

47.5

Model margin

-1.1est.

LA perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Giants

Rams

Win probability

  • Rams
  • Giants

How each play moved the game.

Rams winsGiants wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Giantsedge mapRams
  • +0.027EPA / play+0.059
  • 42.9%Success rate49.0%
  • +0.118EPA / dropback+0.117
  • -0.102EPA / rush-0.042
  • 7.8%Explosive rate8.1%
  • -2.00CPOE+1.33
  • 44.9%Third-down rate46.2%
  • 62.4%Red-zone TD rate65.6%
  • 2.15Points / drive2.15
  • 2.1%Turnover rate2.2%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

LA lead 8–7 since 1999

RAMS have won 5 straight. Meetings average 46.7 points. LA are 5-10 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2023 · W17LA @ NYG26–25RAMS
2021 · W6LA @ NYG38–11RAMS
2020 · W4NYG @ LA9–17RAMS
2017 · W9LA @ NYG51–17RAMS
2016 · W7NYG @ LA17–10NYG
2014 · W16NYG @ STL37–27NYG
2011 · W2STL @ NYG16–28NYG
2008 · W2NYG @ STL41–13NYG

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultNYG–LA
NYGQ1 15:00727Punt0–0
LAQ1 11:1235Punt0–0
NYGQ1 9:511015Punt0–0
LAQ1 5:35990Touchdown0–7
NYGQ1 0:1131Punt0–7
LAQ2 14:35788Touchdown0–14
NYGQ2 11:07948Turnover0–14
LAQ2 6:2125Turnover0–14
NYGQ2 5:27421Punt0–14
LAQ2 3:1115Turnover0–14
NYGQ2 3:0640Field goal3–14
LAQ2 0:25240Missed field goal3–14
LAQ3 15:00522Punt3–14
NYGQ3 13:14517Punt3–14
LAQ3 9:56786Touchdown3–21
NYGQ3 6:21618Field goal6–21
LAQ3 3:49734Punt6–21
NYGQ4 15:0030Punt6–21
LAQ4 14:33964Touchdown6–28
NYGQ4 8:57735Turnover on downs6–28
LAQ4 6:12645End of half6–28

Box score

Individual performances

Giants

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Jameis Winston11/2711101
Jaxson Dart3/52000

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Cam Skattebo12363.00
Devin Singletary393.00
Najee Harris461.50
Jameis Winston210.50

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Darnell Mooney23480
Isaiah Likely510330
Malachi Fields26300
Cam Skattebo44190
Malik Nabers1410
Devin Singletary0100
Theo Johnson0400

Rams

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Matthew Stafford22/3132741

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Kyren Williams12857.10
Blake Corum12796.60
Matthew Stafford4-1-0.30

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Davante Adams8101952
Terrance Ferguson69541
Tutu Atwell12190
Colby Parkinson22150
Blake Corum11130
Kyren Williams22121
Konata Mumpfield12120
Davis Allen1170
Xavier Smith0100

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +6.54.6%3.0%7.5%7.2%2.8%4.2%

Positive margins favour Rams; negative favour Giants.

Half-point at risk

4.23%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

46.1%

Expected total

45.3est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.63
  • Home-field advantage+2.22
  • Quarterback adjustment-4.18
  • Rest differential+0.24
  • Expected margin-1.10