2017 · Week 9

Final

Rams

Los Angeles

QB Jared Goff

51·17

Giants

New York

QB Eli Manning

MetLife Stadium · outdoors · fieldturf · 56°F · wind 6mph

Closing spread

LA -5.5

Total

42.5

Model margin

+0.1est.

NYG perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Rams

Giants

Win probability

  • Giants
  • Rams

How each play moved the game.

Giants winsRams wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Ramsedge mapGiants
  • +0.054EPA / play-0.106
  • 43.3%Success rate41.1%
  • +0.131EPA / dropback-0.099
  • -0.050EPA / rush-0.119
  • 11.4%Explosive rate6.2%
  • -1.32CPOE-3.91
  • 41.3%Third-down rate32.5%
  • 56.1%Red-zone TD rate51.3%
  • 2.27Points / drive1.19
  • 1.7%Turnover rate2.1%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

LA lead 8–7 since 1999

RAMS have won 5 straight. Meetings average 46.7 points. NYG are 10-5 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2026 · W2NYG @ LA6–28RAMS
2023 · W17LA @ NYG26–25RAMS
2021 · W6LA @ NYG38–11RAMS
2020 · W4NYG @ LA9–17RAMS
2016 · W7NYG @ LA17–10NYG
2014 · W16NYG @ STL37–27NYG
2011 · W2STL @ NYG16–28NYG
2008 · W2NYG @ STL41–13NYG

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultLA–NYG
NYGQ1 15:00532Turnover0–0
LAQ1 12:45452Touchdown7–0
NYGQ1 10:551467Touchdown7–7
LAQ1 3:16961Field goal10–7
NYGQ2 14:52425Turnover10–7
LAQ2 13:01775Touchdown17–7
NYGQ2 9:2635Punt17–7
LAQ2 7:53271Touchdown24–7
NYGQ2 7:18744Field goal24–10
LAQ2 4:0161Punt24–10
NYGQ2 2:5230Turnover24–10
LAQ2 2:3432Field goal27–10
NYGQ2 1:13943Missed field goal27–10
LAQ3 15:00775Touchdown34–10
NYGQ3 11:34710Punt34–10
LAQ3 7:57445Touchdown41–10
NYGQ3 6:2739Punt41–10
LAQ3 4:54318Touchdown48–10
NYGQ3 3:2839Punt48–10
LAQ3 1:23620Punt48–10
NYGQ4 12:33672Touchdown48–17
LAQ4 9:33946Field goal51–17
NYGQ4 2:5334Punt51–17
LAQ4 2:0638Turnover on downs51–17
NYGQ4 0:2200End of half51–17

Box score

Individual performances

Rams

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Jared Goff14/2231140

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Todd Gurley16593.72
Malcolm Brown15573.80
Tavon Austin6345.70
Gerald Everett11313.00
Sean Mannion1-1-1.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Robert Woods45702
Sammy Watkins12671
Cooper Kupp35540
Todd Gurley23450
Gerald Everett12440
Pharoh Cooper1190
Tyler Higbee1281
Derek Carrier1150
Josh Reynolds0100

Giants

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Eli Manning20/3622021
Geno Smith0/2000

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Orleans Darkwa16714.40
Wayne Gallman9414.60
Geno Smith1-1-1.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Sterling Shepard59700
Evan Engram410701
Tavarres King36331
Rhett Ellison22210
Shane Vereen34140
Orleans Darkwa2280
Roger Lewis1340
Ed Eagan0100
Wayne Gallman0100

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line -5.52.7%4.4%2.9%7.3%7.4%2.9%4.4%2.7%

Positive margins favour Giants; negative favour Rams.

Half-point at risk

1.85%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

49.4%

Expected total

42.4est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-1.63
  • Home-field advantage+1.74
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+0.11