Closing spread
LA -5.5
Total
42.5
Model margin
+0.1est.
NYG perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Giants
- Rams
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.054EPA / play-0.106
- 43.3%Success rate41.1%
- +0.131EPA / dropback-0.099
- -0.050EPA / rush-0.119
- 11.4%Explosive rate6.2%
- -1.32CPOE-3.91
- 41.3%Third-down rate32.5%
- 56.1%Red-zone TD rate51.3%
- 2.27Points / drive1.19
- 1.7%Turnover rate2.1%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
All square 7–7 since 1999
RAMS have won 4 straight. Meetings average 47.6 points. NYG are 10-4 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Rams
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jared Goff | 14/22 | 311 | 4 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Todd Gurley | 16 | 59 | 3.7 | 2 |
| Malcolm Brown | 15 | 57 | 3.8 | 0 |
| Tavon Austin | 6 | 34 | 5.7 | 0 |
| Gerald Everett | 1 | 13 | 13.0 | 0 |
| Sean Mannion | 1 | -1 | -1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Robert Woods | 4 | 5 | 70 | 2 |
| Sammy Watkins | 1 | 2 | 67 | 1 |
| Cooper Kupp | 3 | 5 | 54 | 0 |
| Todd Gurley | 2 | 3 | 45 | 0 |
| Gerald Everett | 1 | 2 | 44 | 0 |
| Pharoh Cooper | 1 | 1 | 9 | 0 |
| Tyler Higbee | 1 | 2 | 8 | 1 |
| Derek Carrier | 1 | 1 | 5 | 0 |
| Josh Reynolds | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Giants
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Eli Manning | 20/36 | 220 | 2 | 1 |
| Geno Smith | 0/2 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Orleans Darkwa | 16 | 71 | 4.4 | 0 |
| Wayne Gallman | 9 | 41 | 4.6 | 0 |
| Geno Smith | 1 | -1 | -1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sterling Shepard | 5 | 9 | 70 | 0 |
| Evan Engram | 4 | 10 | 70 | 1 |
| Tavarres King | 3 | 6 | 33 | 1 |
| Rhett Ellison | 2 | 2 | 21 | 0 |
| Shane Vereen | 3 | 4 | 14 | 0 |
| Orleans Darkwa | 2 | 2 | 8 | 0 |
| Roger Lewis | 1 | 3 | 4 | 0 |
| Ed Eagan | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Wayne Gallman | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Giants; negative favour Rams.
Half-point at risk
1.85%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
49.4%
Expected total
42.4est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-1.63
- Home-field advantage+1.74
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+0.11