2016 · Week 7

Final

Giants

New York

QB Eli Manning

17·10

Rams

Los Angeles

QB Case Keenum

Twickenham Stadium · outdoors · grass · 55°F · wind 12mph

Closing spread

NYG -3

Total

44.5

Model margin

-2.8est.

LA perspective

Push chance

7.5%est.

the line sits on a key number

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Giants

Rams

Win probability

  • Rams
  • Giants

How each play moved the game.

Rams winsGiants wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Giantsedge mapRams
  • -0.074EPA / play-0.203
  • 40.8%Success rate36.6%
  • -0.035EPA / dropback-0.222
  • -0.142EPA / rush-0.170
  • 7.3%Explosive rate6.8%
  • -1.63CPOE-6.92
  • 36.0%Third-down rate32.2%
  • 61.2%Red-zone TD rate47.6%
  • 1.46Points / drive0.97
  • 2.4%Turnover rate2.8%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

LA lead 8–7 since 1999

RAMS have won 5 straight. Meetings average 46.7 points. LA are 5-10 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2026 · W2NYG @ LA6–28RAMS
2023 · W17LA @ NYG26–25RAMS
2021 · W6LA @ NYG38–11RAMS
2020 · W4NYG @ LA9–17RAMS
2017 · W9LA @ NYG51–17RAMS
2014 · W16NYG @ STL37–27NYG
2011 · W2STL @ NYG16–28NYG
2008 · W2NYG @ STL41–13NYG

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultNYG–LA
NYGQ1 15:0029Turnover0–0
LAQ1 14:25735Touchdown0–7
NYGQ1 11:15414Punt0–7
LAQ1 9:45762Field goal0–10
NYGQ1 5:1333Punt0–10
LAQ1 3:46725Punt0–10
NYGQ2 14:531366Field goal3–10
LAQ2 8:1525Opp touchdown10–10
LAQ2 7:10519Punt10–10
NYGQ2 4:36531Punt10–10
LAQ2 2:0647Punt10–10
NYGQ2 1:2433Punt10–10
LAQ2 0:37420Punt10–10
NYGQ2 0:0100End of half10–10
LAQ3 15:00621Punt10–10
NYGQ3 11:0930Punt10–10
LAQ3 9:52617Punt10–10
NYGQ3 6:47737Punt10–10
LAQ3 3:20628Punt10–10
NYGQ4 14:43630Punt10–10
LAQ4 12:2010Turnover10–10
NYGQ4 12:06635Touchdown17–10
LAQ4 9:231241Turnover17–10
NYGQ4 4:0036Punt17–10
LAQ4 3:031265Turnover17–10
NYGQ4 0:4200End of half17–10

Box score

Individual performances

Giants

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Eli Manning24/3719600

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Rashad Jennings13251.91
Paul Perkins4123.00
Bobby Rainey111.00
Eli Manning2-2-1.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Victor Cruz58550
Odell Beckham Jr.59490
Sterling Shepard57320
Rashad Jennings23240
Will Tye23140
Larry Donnell1380
Roger Lewis1170
Jerell Adams1150
Paul Perkins1140
Bobby Rainey11-20

Rams

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Case Keenum32/5329114

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Todd Gurley15573.80
Tavon Austin11010.00
Benny Cunningham341.30
Case Keenum133.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Brian Quick49920
Tavon Austin1015571
Lance Kendricks79550
Kenny Britt38430
Todd Gurley67350
Benny Cunningham1150
Tyler Higbee1140
Bradley Marquez0100
Mike Thomas0100

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line -32.7%3.0%4.8%3.1%7.5%6.9%2.6%3.9%

Positive margins favour Rams; negative favour Giants.

Half-point at risk

7.52%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

41.5%

Expected total

41.9est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-4.58
  • Home-field advantage+1.74
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin-2.84