Closing spread
NYG -3
Total
44.5
Model margin
-2.8est.
LA perspective
Push chance
7.5%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Rams
- Giants
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.074EPA / play-0.203
- 40.8%Success rate36.6%
- -0.035EPA / dropback-0.222
- -0.142EPA / rush-0.170
- 7.3%Explosive rate6.8%
- -1.63CPOE-6.92
- 36.0%Third-down rate32.2%
- 61.2%Red-zone TD rate47.6%
- 1.46Points / drive0.97
- 2.4%Turnover rate2.8%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
All square 7–7 since 1999
RAMS have won 4 straight. Meetings average 47.6 points. LA are 4-10 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Giants
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Eli Manning | 24/37 | 196 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rashad Jennings | 13 | 25 | 1.9 | 1 |
| Paul Perkins | 4 | 12 | 3.0 | 0 |
| Bobby Rainey | 1 | 1 | 1.0 | 0 |
| Eli Manning | 2 | -2 | -1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Victor Cruz | 5 | 8 | 55 | 0 |
| Odell Beckham Jr. | 5 | 9 | 49 | 0 |
| Sterling Shepard | 5 | 7 | 32 | 0 |
| Rashad Jennings | 2 | 3 | 24 | 0 |
| Will Tye | 2 | 3 | 14 | 0 |
| Larry Donnell | 1 | 3 | 8 | 0 |
| Roger Lewis | 1 | 1 | 7 | 0 |
| Jerell Adams | 1 | 1 | 5 | 0 |
| Paul Perkins | 1 | 1 | 4 | 0 |
| Bobby Rainey | 1 | 1 | -2 | 0 |
Rams
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Case Keenum | 32/53 | 291 | 1 | 4 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Todd Gurley | 15 | 57 | 3.8 | 0 |
| Tavon Austin | 1 | 10 | 10.0 | 0 |
| Benny Cunningham | 3 | 4 | 1.3 | 0 |
| Case Keenum | 1 | 3 | 3.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brian Quick | 4 | 9 | 92 | 0 |
| Tavon Austin | 10 | 15 | 57 | 1 |
| Lance Kendricks | 7 | 9 | 55 | 0 |
| Kenny Britt | 3 | 8 | 43 | 0 |
| Todd Gurley | 6 | 7 | 35 | 0 |
| Benny Cunningham | 1 | 1 | 5 | 0 |
| Tyler Higbee | 1 | 1 | 4 | 0 |
| Bradley Marquez | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Mike Thomas | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Rams; negative favour Giants.
Half-point at risk
7.52%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
41.5%
Expected total
41.9est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-4.58
- Home-field advantage+1.74
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin-2.84