Closing spread
LA -6
Total
43.5
Model margin
+3.1est.
NYG perspective
Push chance
2.6%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Giants
- Rams
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.042EPA / play-0.165
- 44.9%Success rate38.2%
- +0.085EPA / dropback-0.143
- -0.022EPA / rush-0.205
- 9.4%Explosive rate7.6%
- -3.54CPOE+0.19
- 41.4%Third-down rate30.9%
- 64.2%Red-zone TD rate45.8%
- 2.13Points / drive1.09
- 1.5%Turnover rate1.6%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
All square 7–7 since 1999
RAMS have won 4 straight. Meetings average 47.6 points. NYG are 10-4 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Rams
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matthew Stafford | 24/34 | 317 | 1 | 2 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kyren Williams | 20 | 87 | 4.3 | 3 |
| Puka Nacua | 2 | 19 | 9.5 | 0 |
| Matthew Stafford | 1 | -1 | -1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Puka Nacua | 5 | 8 | 118 | 0 |
| Demarcus Robinson | 6 | 10 | 92 | 0 |
| Tyler Higbee | 6 | 7 | 62 | 0 |
| Cooper Kupp | 4 | 6 | 27 | 1 |
| Kyren Williams | 2 | 2 | 14 | 0 |
| Ronnie Rivers | 1 | 1 | 4 | 0 |
Giants
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tyrod Taylor | 27/41 | 319 | 1 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tyrod Taylor | 6 | 40 | 6.7 | 0 |
| Saquon Barkley | 12 | 39 | 3.3 | 0 |
| Wan'Dale Robinson | 1 | 24 | 24.0 | 1 |
| Eric Gray | 1 | 2 | 2.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Darius Slayton | 4 | 6 | 106 | 1 |
| Wan'Dale Robinson | 6 | 9 | 55 | 0 |
| Darren Waller | 5 | 6 | 51 | 0 |
| Daniel Bellinger | 4 | 4 | 39 | 0 |
| Jalin Hyatt | 3 | 4 | 25 | 0 |
| Saquon Barkley | 3 | 6 | 19 | 0 |
| Isaiah Hodgins | 1 | 2 | 18 | 0 |
| Eric Gray | 1 | 1 | 6 | 0 |
| Sterling Shepard | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Giants; negative favour Rams.
Half-point at risk
2.61%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
57.4%
Expected total
45.4est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-1.85
- Home-field advantage+1.71
- Quarterback adjustment+3.55
- Rest differential-0.32
- Expected margin+3.09