2023 · Week 17

Final

Rams

Los Angeles

QB Matthew Stafford

26·25

Giants

New York

QB Tyrod Taylor

MetLife Stadium · outdoors · fieldturf · 41°F · wind 10mph

Closing spread

LA -6

Total

43.5

Model margin

+3.1est.

NYG perspective

Push chance

2.6%est.

the line sits on a key number

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Rams

Giants

Win probability

  • Giants
  • Rams

How each play moved the game.

Giants winsRams wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Ramsedge mapGiants
  • +0.042EPA / play-0.165
  • 44.9%Success rate38.2%
  • +0.085EPA / dropback-0.143
  • -0.022EPA / rush-0.205
  • 9.4%Explosive rate7.6%
  • -3.54CPOE+0.19
  • 41.4%Third-down rate30.9%
  • 64.2%Red-zone TD rate45.8%
  • 2.13Points / drive1.09
  • 1.5%Turnover rate1.6%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

LA lead 8–7 since 1999

RAMS have won 5 straight. Meetings average 46.7 points. NYG are 10-5 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2026 · W2NYG @ LA6–28RAMS
2021 · W6LA @ NYG38–11RAMS
2020 · W4NYG @ LA9–17RAMS
2017 · W9LA @ NYG51–17RAMS
2016 · W7NYG @ LA17–10NYG
2014 · W16NYG @ STL37–27NYG
2011 · W2STL @ NYG16–28NYG
2008 · W2NYG @ STL41–13NYG

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultLA–NYG
LAQ1 15:001154Turnover on downs0–0
NYGQ1 8:4034Punt0–0
LAQ1 7:34872Touchdown7–0
NYGQ1 3:071085Touchdown7–7
LAQ2 13:03417Punt7–7
NYGQ2 10:4833Punt7–7
LAQ2 8:46417Turnover7–7
NYGQ2 6:3349Turnover on downs7–7
LAQ2 5:02846Touchdown14–7
NYGQ2 1:44411Turnover14–7
LAQ2 1:07116Turnover14–7
NYGQ2 0:58416Field goal14–10
NYGQ3 15:00624Punt14–10
LAQ3 11:36488Touchdown20–10
NYGQ3 10:17515Punt20–10
LAQ3 7:463-3Punt20–10
NYGQ3 6:30491Touchdown20–16
LAQ3 4:39412Turnover20–16
NYGQ3 2:121031Field goal20–19
LAQ4 13:24470Touchdown26–19
NYGQ4 12:03851Turnover on downs26–19
LAQ4 8:3834Punt26–19
NYGQ4 7:40720Punt26–19
LAQ4 4:4648Opp touchdown26–25
LAQ4 3:273-9Punt26–25
NYGQ4 1:08429Missed field goal26–25
LAQ4 0:3000End of half26–25

Box score

Individual performances

Rams

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Matthew Stafford24/3431712

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Kyren Williams20874.33
Puka Nacua2199.50
Matthew Stafford1-1-1.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Puka Nacua581180
Demarcus Robinson610920
Tyler Higbee67620
Cooper Kupp46271
Kyren Williams22140
Ronnie Rivers1140

Giants

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Tyrod Taylor27/4131911

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Tyrod Taylor6406.70
Saquon Barkley12393.30
Wan'Dale Robinson12424.01
Eric Gray122.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Darius Slayton461061
Wan'Dale Robinson69550
Darren Waller56510
Daniel Bellinger44390
Jalin Hyatt34250
Saquon Barkley36190
Isaiah Hodgins12180
Eric Gray1160
Sterling Shepard0100

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line -63.9%6.9%7.5%3.1%4.8%

Positive margins favour Giants; negative favour Rams.

Half-point at risk

2.61%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

57.4%

Expected total

45.4est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-1.85
  • Home-field advantage+1.71
  • Quarterback adjustment+3.55
  • Rest differential-0.32
  • Expected margin+3.09