Closing spread
LA -7.5
Total
49.5
Model margin
-2.8est.
NYG perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Giants
- Rams
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.082EPA / play-0.141
- 46.6%Success rate40.2%
- +0.183EPA / dropback-0.146
- -0.089EPA / rush-0.133
- 10.3%Explosive rate5.7%
- -0.40CPOE-4.62
- 42.6%Third-down rate35.9%
- 63.0%Red-zone TD rate47.5%
- 2.32Points / drive1.20
- 2.1%Turnover rate2.8%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
All square 7–7 since 1999
RAMS have won 4 straight. Meetings average 47.6 points. NYG are 10-4 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Rams
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matthew Stafford | 22/28 | 251 | 4 | 1 |
| John Wolford | 0/2 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Darrell Henderson | 21 | 78 | 3.7 | 1 |
| Sony Michel | 9 | 42 | 4.7 | 0 |
| Matthew Stafford | 2 | 12 | 6.0 | 0 |
| John Wolford | 2 | -1 | -0.5 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cooper Kupp | 9 | 12 | 130 | 2 |
| Tyler Higbee | 5 | 5 | 36 | 0 |
| Robert Woods | 2 | 5 | 31 | 1 |
| Darrell Henderson | 2 | 3 | 29 | 1 |
| Van Jefferson | 3 | 4 | 19 | 0 |
| DeSean Jackson | 1 | 1 | 6 | 0 |
Giants
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Daniel Jones | 29/51 | 242 | 0 | 3 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Devontae Booker | 12 | 41 | 3.4 | 0 |
| Daniel Jones | 3 | 4 | 1.3 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sterling Shepard | 10 | 14 | 76 | 0 |
| Dante Pettis | 5 | 11 | 48 | 0 |
| Kadarius Toney | 3 | 3 | 36 | 0 |
| Devontae Booker | 4 | 4 | 28 | 0 |
| Evan Engram | 3 | 5 | 24 | 0 |
| Collin Johnson | 2 | 5 | 21 | 0 |
| Kyle Rudolph | 1 | 2 | 8 | 0 |
| John Ross | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Giants; negative favour Rams.
Half-point at risk
4.77%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
41.5%
Expected total
42.4est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-4.29
- Home-field advantage+1.71
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential-0.24
- Expected margin-2.82