2021 · Week 6

Final

Rams

Los Angeles

QB Matthew Stafford

38·11

Giants

New York

QB Daniel Jones

MetLife Stadium · outdoors · fieldturf · 61°F · wind 13mph

Closing spread

LA -7.5

Total

49.5

Model margin

-2.8est.

NYG perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Rams

Giants

Win probability

  • Giants
  • Rams

How each play moved the game.

Giants winsRams wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Ramsedge mapGiants
  • +0.082EPA / play-0.141
  • 46.6%Success rate40.2%
  • +0.183EPA / dropback-0.146
  • -0.089EPA / rush-0.133
  • 10.3%Explosive rate5.7%
  • -0.40CPOE-4.62
  • 42.6%Third-down rate35.9%
  • 63.0%Red-zone TD rate47.5%
  • 2.32Points / drive1.20
  • 2.1%Turnover rate2.8%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

LA lead 8–7 since 1999

RAMS have won 5 straight. Meetings average 46.7 points. NYG are 10-5 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2026 · W2NYG @ LA6–28RAMS
2023 · W17LA @ NYG26–25RAMS
2020 · W4NYG @ LA9–17RAMS
2017 · W9LA @ NYG51–17RAMS
2016 · W7NYG @ LA17–10NYG
2014 · W16NYG @ STL37–27NYG
2011 · W2STL @ NYG16–28NYG
2008 · W2NYG @ STL41–13NYG

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultLA–NYG
NYGQ1 15:001468Field goal0–3
LAQ1 9:21737Punt0–3
NYGQ1 6:151031Turnover on downs0–3
LAQ1 2:174-1Punt0–3
NYGQ1 0:4239Punt0–3
LAQ2 13:33681Touchdown7–3
NYGQ2 10:283-8Turnover7–3
LAQ2 9:23412Touchdown14–3
NYGQ2 8:063-1Punt14–3
LAQ2 7:0037Punt14–3
NYGQ2 5:3922Turnover14–3
LAQ2 4:53414Touchdown21–3
NYGQ2 3:36515Punt21–3
LAQ2 2:14673Touchdown28–3
NYGQ2 0:3310Turnover28–3
LAQ2 0:1724Turnover28–3
LAQ3 15:001273Field goal31–3
NYGQ3 5:45840Turnover31–3
LAQ3 1:58949Touchdown38–3
NYGQ4 11:553-9Punt38–3
LAQ4 10:4132Turnover38–3
NYGQ4 9:481253Touchdown38–11
LAQ4 6:21615Punt38–11
NYGQ4 3:211061Turnover on downs38–11
LAQ4 0:3200End of half38–11

Box score

Individual performances

Rams

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Matthew Stafford22/2825141
John Wolford0/2001

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Darrell Henderson21783.71
Sony Michel9424.70
Matthew Stafford2126.00
John Wolford2-1-0.50

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Cooper Kupp9121302
Tyler Higbee55360
Robert Woods25311
Darrell Henderson23291
Van Jefferson34190
DeSean Jackson1160

Giants

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Daniel Jones29/5124203

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Devontae Booker12413.40
Daniel Jones341.30

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Sterling Shepard1014760
Dante Pettis511480
Kadarius Toney33360
Devontae Booker44280
Evan Engram35240
Collin Johnson25210
Kyle Rudolph1280
John Ross0200

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line -7.52.7%3.0%4.8%3.1%7.5%6.9%2.6%3.9%

Positive margins favour Giants; negative favour Rams.

Half-point at risk

4.77%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

41.5%

Expected total

42.4est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-4.29
  • Home-field advantage+1.71
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential-0.24
  • Expected margin-2.82