Closing spread
NYG -7
Total
43.5
Model margin
+2.0est.
NYG perspective
Push chance
4.7%est.
the line sits on a key number
Availability
The injury report
The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.
Rams
- OutC.J. Ah YouDEWrist· DNP
- DoubtfulDanny AmendolaWRElbow· DNP
- QuestionableMichael HoomanawanuiTECalf· Limited
- QuestionableSteven JacksonRBQuadricep· DNP
- ProbableBradley FletcherCBToe· Full
- ProbableJason SmithTAnkle· Full
- ProbableJosh HullLBHamstring· Full
- ProbableSam BradfordQBright Finger· Full
Giants
- OutOsi UmenyioraDEKnee· DNP
- OutPrince AmukamaraCBFoot· DNP
- OutTravis BeckumTEHamstring· DNP
- QuestionableHakeem NicksWRKnee· Limited
- QuestionableJustin TuckDENeck· Limited
Win probability
- Giants
- Rams
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
The rivalry
STL lead 8–7 since 1999
RAMS have won 5 straight. Meetings average 46.7 points. NYG are 10-5 ATS in the series.
Possession by possession
How it unfolded
Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.
| Ball | Start | Plays | Yards | Result | STL–NYG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NYG | Q1 15:00 | 6 | 43 | Turnover | 0–0 |
| LA | Q1 12:33 | 8 | 89 | Field goal | 3–0 |
| NYG | Q1 9:14 | 3 | 0 | Punt | 3–0 |
| NYG | Q1 8:04 | 6 | 38 | Touchdown | 3–7 |
| LA | Q1 5:47 | 9 | 67 | Field goal | 6–7 |
| NYG | Q1 3:21 | 3 | 7 | Punt | 6–7 |
| LA | Q1 1:47 | 3 | 9 | Punt | 6–7 |
| NYG | Q2 15:00 | 3 | 3 | Punt | 6–7 |
| LA | Q2 13:20 | 5 | 51 | Opp touchdown | 6–14 |
| LA | Q2 10:58 | 3 | 1 | Punt | 6–14 |
| NYG | Q2 9:51 | 3 | 2 | Punt | 6–14 |
| LA | Q2 8:27 | 5 | 10 | Punt | 6–14 |
| NYG | Q2 6:29 | 3 | 6 | Punt | 6–14 |
| LA | Q2 4:20 | 3 | 7 | Punt | 6–14 |
| NYG | Q2 2:58 | 10 | 91 | Touchdown | 6–21 |
| LA | Q2 0:21 | 0 | 0 | End of half | 6–21 |
| LA | Q3 15:00 | 7 | 60 | Field goal | 9–21 |
| NYG | Q3 11:49 | 11 | 44 | Touchdown | 9–28 |
| LA | Q3 6:19 | 12 | 55 | Touchdown | 16–28 |
| NYG | Q3 1:18 | 8 | 32 | Punt | 16–28 |
| LA | Q4 12:32 | 3 | 7 | Punt | 16–28 |
| NYG | Q4 11:08 | 6 | 18 | Punt | 16–28 |
| LA | Q4 7:20 | 3 | 4 | Punt | 16–28 |
| NYG | Q4 6:24 | 9 | 42 | Turnover on downs | 16–28 |
| LA | Q4 2:08 | 4 | -8 | Punt | 16–28 |
| NYG | Q4 1:34 | 0 | 0 | End of half | 16–28 |
Box score
Individual performances
Giants
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Eli Manning | 19/30 | 223 | 2 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ahmad Bradshaw | 15 | 59 | 3.9 | 0 |
| Brandon Jacobs | 16 | 50 | 3.1 | 1 |
| D.J. Ware | 3 | 22 | 7.3 | 0 |
| Eli Manning | 4 | -12 | -3.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mario Manningham | 3 | 7 | 56 | 0 |
| Ahmad Bradshaw | 5 | 5 | 45 | 0 |
| Hakeem Nicks | 4 | 8 | 38 | 1 |
| Domenik Hixon | 2 | 2 | 29 | 1 |
| Brandon Jacobs | 1 | 1 | 17 | 0 |
| Victor Cruz | 2 | 2 | 17 | 0 |
| Jake Ballard | 1 | 1 | 13 | 0 |
| Brandon Stokley | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Bear Pascoe | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Giants; negative favour Rams.
Half-point at risk
4.68%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
54.4%
Expected total
45.5est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.50
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+1.99
One or both ratings are carry-over priors — no games have been played this season yet, so treat this as a starting assumption rather than a read.