Closing spread
NYG -7
Total
43.5
Model margin
+2.0est.
NYG perspective
Push chance
4.7%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Giants
- Rams
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
The rivalry
All square 7–7 since 1999
RAMS have won 4 straight. Meetings average 47.6 points. NYG are 10-4 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Giants
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Eli Manning | 19/30 | 223 | 2 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ahmad Bradshaw | 15 | 59 | 3.9 | 0 |
| Brandon Jacobs | 16 | 50 | 3.1 | 1 |
| D.J. Ware | 3 | 22 | 7.3 | 0 |
| Eli Manning | 4 | -12 | -3.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mario Manningham | 3 | 7 | 56 | 0 |
| Ahmad Bradshaw | 5 | 5 | 45 | 0 |
| Hakeem Nicks | 4 | 8 | 38 | 1 |
| Domenik Hixon | 2 | 2 | 29 | 1 |
| Brandon Jacobs | 1 | 1 | 17 | 0 |
| Victor Cruz | 2 | 2 | 17 | 0 |
| Jake Ballard | 1 | 1 | 13 | 0 |
| Brandon Stokley | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Bear Pascoe | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Giants; negative favour Rams.
Half-point at risk
4.68%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
54.4%
Expected total
45.5est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.50
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+1.99
One or both ratings are carry-over priors — no games have been played this season yet, so treat this as a starting assumption rather than a read.