Closing spread
KC -2.5
Total
36
Model margin
+0.8est.
KC perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Chiefs
- Steelers
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.060EPA / play+0.014
- 42.5%Success rate43.9%
- +0.159EPA / dropback+0.002
- -0.039EPA / rush+0.032
- 11.5%Explosive rate10.8%
- 45.8%Third-down rate36.1%
- 45.4%Red-zone TD rate50.6%
- 1.58Points / drive1.54
- 1.9%Turnover rate3.0%
- -0.148EPA / play allowed-0.011
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
All square 8–8 since 1999
KC have won 4 straight. Meetings average 45.3 points. KC are 10-6 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Steelers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kordell Stewart | 15/25 | 141 | 1 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jerome Bettis | 19 | 112 | 5.9 | 0 |
| Kordell Stewart | 7 | 47 | 6.7 | 0 |
| Amos Zereoue | 8 | 42 | 5.3 | 0 |
| Troy Edwards | 1 | 2 | 2.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Plaxico Burress | 3 | 6 | 39 | 0 |
| Hines Ward | 4 | 8 | 38 | 1 |
| Jerame Tuman | 1 | 1 | 23 | 0 |
| Amos Zereoue | 2 | 2 | 17 | 0 |
| Bobby Shaw | 2 | 3 | 15 | 0 |
| Mark Bruener | 1 | 1 | 6 | 0 |
| Jerome Bettis | 1 | 2 | 5 | 0 |
| Troy Edwards | 1 | 1 | -2 | 0 |
Chiefs
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Trent Green | 16/33 | 127 | 0 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Priest Holmes | 20 | 150 | 7.5 | 2 |
| Trent Green | 2 | 14 | 7.0 | 0 |
| Mike Cloud | 1 | 3 | 3.0 | 0 |
| Larry Parker | 1 | -2 | -2.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tony Gonzalez | 5 | 8 | 46 | 0 |
| Mikhael Ricks | 2 | 2 | 30 | 0 |
| Chris Thomas | 3 | 3 | 26 | 0 |
| Snoop Minnis | 1 | 6 | 14 | 0 |
| Derrick Alexander | 1 | 8 | 10 | 0 |
| Jermaine Williams | 1 | 2 | 2 | 0 |
| Priest Holmes | 3 | 3 | -1 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Chiefs; negative favour Steelers.
Half-point at risk
7.42%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
51.1%
Expected total
44.6est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-1.81
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+0.76