2001 · Week 5

Final

Steelers

Pittsburgh

QB Kordell Stewart

20·17

Chiefs

Kansas City

QB Trent Green

Arrowhead Stadium · outdoors · grass · 57°F · wind 15mph

Closing spread

KC -2.5

Total

36

Model margin

+0.8est.

KC perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Win probability

  • Chiefs
  • Steelers

How each play moved the game.

Chiefs winsSteelers wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Steelersedge mapChiefs
  • +0.060EPA / play+0.014
  • 42.5%Success rate43.9%
  • +0.159EPA / dropback+0.002
  • -0.039EPA / rush+0.032
  • 11.5%Explosive rate10.8%
  • 45.8%Third-down rate36.1%
  • 45.4%Red-zone TD rate50.6%
  • 1.58Points / drive1.54
  • 1.9%Turnover rate3.0%
  • -0.148EPA / play allowed-0.011

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

All square 8–8 since 1999

KC have won 4 straight. Meetings average 45.3 points. KC are 10-6 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2024 · W17KC @ PIT29–10KC
2021 · playoffsPIT @ KC21–42KC
2021 · W16PIT @ KC10–36KC
2018 · W2KC @ PIT42–37KC
2017 · W6PIT @ KC19–13PIT
2016 · playoffsPIT @ KC18–16PIT
2016 · W4KC @ PIT14–43PIT
2015 · W7PIT @ KC13–23KC

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultPIT–KC
PITQ1 15:0035Punt0–0
KCQ1 13:20715Punt0–0
PITQ1 10:08919Punt0–0
KCQ1 5:0132Punt0–0
PITQ1 4:1033Punt0–0
KCQ1 3:12724Punt0–0
PITQ1 0:021174Field goal3–0
KCQ2 9:4967Punt3–0
PITQ2 6:37856Field goal6–0
KCQ2 2:1038Punt6–0
PITQ2 1:18311Safety6–2
KCQ2 0:40523End of half6–2
KCQ3 15:00426Opp touchdown13–2
PITQ3 12:4500Opp touchdown13–2
KCQ3 12:45633Punt13–2
PITQ3 8:41624Punt13–2
KCQ3 5:2535Punt13–2
PITQ3 4:26768Touchdown20–2
KCQ3 0:52755Touchdown20–9
PITQ4 13:021041Punt20–9
KCQ4 7:301173Touchdown20–17
PITQ4 2:39515End of half20–17

Box score

Individual performances

Steelers

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Kordell Stewart15/2514110

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Jerome Bettis191125.90
Kordell Stewart7476.70
Amos Zereoue8425.30
Troy Edwards122.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Plaxico Burress36390
Hines Ward48381
Jerame Tuman11230
Amos Zereoue22170
Bobby Shaw23150
Mark Bruener1160
Jerome Bettis1250
Troy Edwards11-20

Chiefs

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Trent Green16/3312701

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Priest Holmes201507.52
Trent Green2147.00
Mike Cloud133.00
Larry Parker1-2-2.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Tony Gonzalez58460
Mikhael Ricks22300
Chris Thomas33260
Snoop Minnis16140
Derrick Alexander18100
Jermaine Williams1220
Priest Holmes33-10

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +2.54.3%2.9%7.3%7.4%3.0%4.5%2.8%

Positive margins favour Chiefs; negative favour Steelers.

Half-point at risk

7.42%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

51.1%

Expected total

44.6est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-1.81
  • Home-field advantage+2.56
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+0.76